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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#91

The beginning of the article was good, but the analysis of DeepSeek and what it means for Nvidia is confused and clearly out of the loop. * People have been training models at

His DeepSeek argument was essentially that experts who look at the economics of running these teams (eg. ha ha the engineers themselves might dabble) are looking over the hedge at DeepSeek's claims and they are really awestruck

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#92

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

Sorry, I don’t know who George Hotz is, but why isn’t AMD making better drivers for AMD?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#93
post #92

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

Sorry, I don’t know who George Hotz is, but why isn’t AMD making better drivers for AMD?

George Hotz is a hot Internet celebrity that has basically accomplished nothing of value but has a large cult following. You can safely ignore.

(Famous for hacking the PS3–except he just took credit for a separate group’s work. And for making a self-driving car in his garage—except oh wait that didn’t happen either.)

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#94
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I don’t know who George Hotz is, but why isn’t AMD making better drivers for AMD?

George Hotz is a hot Internet celebrity that has basically accomplished nothing of value but has a large cult following. You can safely ignore. (Famous for hacking the PS3–except he just took credit for a separate group’s work. And for making a self-driving car in his garage—except oh wait that didn’t happen either.)

You’re not wrong, but after all these years it’s fair to give benefit of the doubt - geohot may have grown as a person. The PS3 affair was incredibly disappointing.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#95

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

I want the NVIDIA monopoly to end, but there is no real competition still. * George Hotz has basically given up on AMD: https://x.com/__tinygrad__/status/1770151484363354195 * Groq can't produce more hardware past their "demo". It seems like they haven't grown capacity in the years since they announced, and they switched to a complete SaaS model and don't even sell hardware anymore. * I dont know enough about MLX, Tr…

It looks like he’s close to having own AMD stack, tweet linked in the article, Jan 15,2025: https://x.com/__tinygrad__/status/1879615316378198516

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD P/E ratio is 109, NVDA is 56. Which stock is overvalued?

If it were all so simple, they wouldn’t pay hedge fund analysts so much money…

No thats not true. Hedge funds get paid so well because getting a small percentage of a big bag of money is still a big bag of money. This statement is more true the closer the big bag of money is to infinity.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#98
DeepSeek is not the black swan

NVDA was overpriced a lot already even without r1, the market is full of air GPUs hiding in the capex of tech giants like MSFT.

If orders are canceled or delivery fails for any reason, NVDA’s EPS would be pulled back to its fundamentally justified level

or if all those air GPUs are produced and delivered in recent years, and the demand keeps rising? well, that will be a crazy world then

it's a finance game, not related with the real world

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#99
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I don’t know who George Hotz is, but why isn’t AMD making better drivers for AMD?

George Hotz is a hot Internet celebrity that has basically accomplished nothing of value but has a large cult following. You can safely ignore. (Famous for hacking the PS3–except he just took credit for a separate group’s work. And for making a self-driving car in his garage—except oh wait that didn’t happen either.)

He was famous before the PS3 hack, he was the first person to unlock the original iPhone.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#100

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

> Any serious competitor must address ALL of Nvidia's advantages.

Not really, his article focuses on Nvidia's being valued so highly by stock markets, he's not saying that Nvidia's destined to lose its advantage in the space in the short term.

In any case, I also think that the likes of MSFT/AMZN/etc will be able to reduce their capex spending eventually by being able to work on a well integrated stack on their own.

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