I guess I should stock up on my meds.
Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
91–100 of 184 posts
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#92I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.
How long do they last? Normal lithium ion powered smoked detectors will last 10 years between battery changes.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#93"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
Over what time scale?
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Time to ramp utility scale energy storage. Make batteries while the inputs are cheap. https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-ca... https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-sto... https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-stora... (edit: as the cost of renewables approaches sub $0.01/kwh wholesale, storage/transmission/distribution become the primary costs of energy)
How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?
Don't do it somewhere that you can't afford burning down.
Lithium iron prismatic cells are quite neat if you want to make your own packs. Electric gocart suppliers might sell you cells and bms.
It was really hard to get anyone to sell you cells, like 8 years ago when, I did 4 6kWh packs. It might be easier now.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?
Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.
Are you implying that stocks are not legitimate trade? That's anti-freedom.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#96Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???
Wouldnt you want to have a motherlode hoarded when supplies dry up 100 years from now, a commodity that fuels advanced avionics?
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#97Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no? Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not star…
> there’s a lawsuit Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.
Ok now you’re switching your argument from we don’t have the capacity to build mines to NEPA. Except this has nothing to do with NEPA and the tribes weren’t getting anywhere with the lawsuits and constantly losing because of the General Mining Law of 1872.
I’m not aware of any serious challenge to the construction of this mine.
Sure, there may be governmental red tape (eg environmental assessment impact studies and whatnot) but most “no build” laws I believe would be at the state not federal level. Federal environmental legislation itself tends to be quite conservative. There’s an argument to be made the administrative state sets up additional regulations but in this specific case I believe the Trump administration was in favor and the Biden administration never changed course so I suspect the EPA doesn’t have any major objections (not sure if it really passes regulations or if there’s just selective enforcement in favor of the mine)
[1] https://www.nevadacurrent.com/2023/12/07/nv-tribes-will-not-...
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
> there’s a lawsuit Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.
Ok now you’re switching your argument from we don’t have the capacity to build mines to NEPA. Except this has nothing to do with NEPA and the tribes weren’t getting anywhere with the lawsuits and constantly losing because of the General Mining Law of 1872. I’m not aware of any serious challenge to the construction of this mine. Sure, there may be governmental red tape (eg environmental assessment impact studies and w…
I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we literally forgot how to nail boards together to make a house, it is because we gradually accreted a system where it takes 5+ years to get permission to do it. The bureaucratic capacity to begin building is key, and on the critical path of actual production.