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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#91
post #80

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

Why is it troubling?

[deleted]

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#92
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's something that's basically equivalent to a golf cart with a bed on it. Hardly an example of anything useful except transporting some stuff around your own property.

for $2 fucking thousand not $70-100k.

Oh yea, it totally looks like a replacement for a $100k F-250. The same class of vehicle really.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#93
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it troubling?

Because it's obvious enough that those who aren't experts in that field can easily point it out. That a supposed expert in the field missed it raises concerns by proxy about their expertise in general.

And it's not at all possible that someone making a blog post forgot to put the word "passenger" before "ICE" there?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#94
post #80

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

Why is it troubling?

the obvious: the manager is being sloppy. Whether they are correct or not is irrelevant; thinking and writing clearly about these issues is literally this person's entire day job. A sloppy report is the tip of an iceberg of sloppier thinking.

The conspiracy: the manager has an axe to grind that aligns with incumbent auto-makers' business strengths, suggesting that the analysis is debased in one way or another.

The "mind explodes": the manager is talking their book; behind the manager is a team using mountains of data to design messages that optimally push the market in the direction they want. The purpose of the message is not to be logically coherent to nerds on the internet. The point is to convince a few portfolio managers to behave in one way or another, and perhaps also to signal sentiment analysis algos.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Prius is just a little gas engine in a little and aerodynamic car. They can have a tiny gas engine because the electric helps acceleration from a standstill. The batteries are just weight on the highway

>The batteries are just weight on the highway

Not quite. Diesel engines are most efficient (~40%) at full throttle, low-mid revs, and drop to <30% at low throttle. With some battery trashing you could see the engine work at some 20-50% duty cycle on the highway.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#97
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You dont need a fast 0-60 in a family car either but people buy Tesla sedans for that purpose all the time.

Most family cars don't have limiters installed to deliberately limit performance.

Considering Semi is only doing day-trucking (aka short and predictable routes) automation seems to be a large target. In the Jay Leno interview they said Pepsi actually lets their drivers to go faster when they enable cruise control:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMKySYs-hCg

Say what you want about FSD but automation in more controlled enviornments will help exploit performance.

They also talk a lot about on ramps and city traffic, situations drivers HATE being behind a slow truck and these you dont have to worry as much about.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#98

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

My question is what happens to gas stations as the changeover is underway? They make razor thin margins and rely on selling a lot of gas to turn a profit, which leads me to believe there will start to be fewer gas stations even when only 20% of cars on the road are electric (just my conjecture, but it seems to make sense to me).

Now as gas stations start to thin out, that would put a damper on people buying gas cars as they would have to go out of their way to fuel up. Which downward pressure on resale value of cars, making people not to want to buy a brand new gas car if it looks like they won't get any trade in value in a few years.

The only hope that I can think of is when it gets to this point, there would be another "cash for clunkers" type of program to make the transition easier.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#99
post #54
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Have to, or perish. The smart money is on perishing.

I think biodiesel adoption is more likely than the extinction of our species.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#100
The article is titled [SCOOP] and might as well be saying "I'm short on Telsa".

While there is a lot of damning evidence in this mumbo jumbo of he said therefor I'm right There is something to be said about the advancement in technology. We need alternative to petrol, diesel. And while it might not be purely electric, it might be hydrogen, who knows, the move to Semis is vital.

The problem is the baboon leading the pack with lies and deceits, might actually do more harm than good to the industry.

And then, there is the the tax payers, who are signing blank cheques to the baboons...

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