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Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#91

Post by standardUser »

Retric wrote: post #89
anonporridge wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data tells me you are completely wrong in your assertion. Life expectancy (in the US) has been on a very steady and continuous increase. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life... However, lifespan is a crude metric. Healthspan is really what we should be targeting. I don't want to live to 150 if 60 of those years are spend miserable in a nursing home hooked up to machines keeping me alive.

Your chart show’s declining life expectancy from 2014-2018, but it’s recent data also disagrees with other sources. “In 2021, an American was expected to live 76.1 years—down 2.8 years from the 2014 peak of 78.9 years. This backslide has erased all life expectancy gains since 1996, according to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-decli…

Like I said in my related comment, some severe cherry-picking.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#92

Post by gorjusborg »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #56
gorjusborg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

You need to ignore dips and look at long term trends when reading graphs. If the end of your graph ends in a dip, that in no way implies the start of a downward trend.

I agree with this in general.

Living in the U.S., though, there are some real problems with the healthcare system that came to a head at the same time as (and partly due to) the pandemic.

I just find it interesting that an someone would make predictions about drastically higher life expectancy during a period where the trend isn't even directionally accurate.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#93

Post by staunton »

cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

The issue is not "what percentage of landmass is uninhabitable" but rather how many will no longer be able to afford food and water, be admitted to refugee camps and if the rich will be willing to share these things with the poor. War is another potential factor.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#94

Post by 98codes »

Wowfunhappy wrote: post #70
terran57 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, people aren't taking care of themselves so that they don't get the chronic diseases that reduce their lifespans. The majority don't realize that what they do in their middle-age years has a profound impact on their life expectancy.

I'm 29 and healthy to my knowledge. I see a doctor every year. Is there anything in particular I should be doing?

45 checking in -- essentially, preventative maintenance. Increasingly, a focus on joints and the muscle groups that support them, particularly towards range of movement/flexibility. Annual physicals to catch problems early, ask your parents about family health history if you haven't yet, and don't ignore the small things that linger.

The better health habits you can lock in now, the better -- it's only going to get harder from here on out to lay that foundation.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#95

Post by bjtitus »

gorjusborg wrote: post #86
valine wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Life expectancy is dropping in the US” is a great clickbait headline. Life expectancy has been rising steadily for decades, with a tiny blip downwards the last two years. You think maybe that big pandemic that killed a million people in the US had anything to do it? The handwringing about lifestyle changes is exhausting.

> You think maybe that big pandemic that killed a million people in the US had anything to do it? I'm not making judgements, just stating the fact. You obviously seem to have it all figured out though.

Kind of seems like your eyes are making judgements to assume 2 downward data points indicate a change in the overall trend.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#96

Post by Retric »

standardUser wrote: post #91
Retric wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your chart show’s declining life expectancy from 2014-2018, but it’s recent data also disagrees with other sources. “In 2021, an American was expected to live 76.1 years—down 2.8 years from the 2014 peak of 78.9 years. This backslide has erased all life expectancy gains since 1996, according to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-decli…

Like I said in my related comment, some severe cherry-picking.

US Life expectancy fell in 10 of the last 12 years. That doesn’t seem like cherry picking to me.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#97

Post by bjtitus »

gorjusborg wrote: post #92
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to ignore dips and look at long term trends when reading graphs. If the end of your graph ends in a dip, that in no way implies the start of a downward trend.

I agree with this in general. Living in the U.S., though, there are some real problems with the healthcare system that came to a head at the same time as (and partly due to) the pandemic. I just find it interesting that an someone would make predictions about drastically higher life expectancy during a period where the trend isn't even directionally accurate.

70 years of trend vs 2 years below the trend. Hmmmm....

I suppose the downturns in 1967-69, 1992-1995, or, historically, the Spanish Flu period were also indicative of a massive break with the historical trend?

It's clear that COVID and overdoses are the overwhelming contributors[1].

1: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/...

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#98

Post by diydsp »

Wowfunhappy wrote: post #70
terran57 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, people aren't taking care of themselves so that they don't get the chronic diseases that reduce their lifespans. The majority don't realize that what they do in their middle-age years has a profound impact on their life expectancy.

I'm 29 and healthy to my knowledge. I see a doctor every year. Is there anything in particular I should be doing?

You're fine until 40. Then you have to earn your existence. You'll slowly begin lifting, stretching, vegetarian eating, cutting out other foods like sugar and saturated fat, getting the proper supplements such as D, B12. Also bringing in lots of fiber, mixing sitting and standing, various forms of stress relief like breathing, meditation, etc.

Smart things to get started on now include: skin care, at least SPF and moisturizing, posture - watch out for gluteal amnesia and "cell phone neck," hand/wrist/finger stretching and strain care, eating low-sugar, learning to cook, finding sports/physical activity you can enjoy long-term, taking care of your eyes, follow the 20/20/20 rule, scalp massage to reduce baldness if applicable. Also paperwork: start an organized system that's mirrored and on offline, and get a basic will set up.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#99

Post by d_tr »

jmyeet wrote: post #37

As long as they get lucky and have a good job, inherit enough wealth from their family to afford housing, don't get diabetes, don't live near any freight railroads, grow up in a rich enough community so they didn't grow up drinking water delivered in lead pipes and didn't grow up in a house with asbestos then yes, they may live to 100.

And as long as they inherit a good set of genes.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#100

Post by miguelazo »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

Not only that, "deaths of despair" have skyrocketed in the US.
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