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Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

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Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does more natural gas have to be part of the answer?

If you switch all the wood burning in third world countries, and all the coal fired stations to natural gas, you reduce emissions considerably. You need to do this because third world countries can't afford renewables, or there simply isn't enough supply to roll it out quickly (within 10-20 years). But they burn a lot of wood, which is unnecessary, and can be switched to gas cheaply and easily. Considering it will st…

> If you switch all the wood burning in third world countries, and all the coal fired stations to natural gas, you reduce emissions considerably.

Bottom line: the amount of CO₂ emitted by "third world" countries is miniscule and it is only a distraction to point to it.

In 2020 the US alone emitted about as much CO₂ as all of Africa, India, and South America together:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-re...

(India: 2.44 billion tonnes, Africa: 1.33 billion tonnes, South America: 994.16 million tonnes, total: 4.76 billion tonnes; US: 4.71 billion tonnes).

That's just the US, not counting the rest of North America, Europe, the rest of Asia and China, some of which may count more as "third world" than others, it's up to debate.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#92
post #57
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. "Fighting Climate Change" is all sunshine and rainbows and photovoltaics until you realise that the messaging has been thoroughly usurped by an anti-civilisation regressive agenda. They don't want people using cleaner energy; they primarily want people using less energy; they sell that goal with promotion of "eco" and "green" etc. I want us to use more AND cleaner energy; one without the other is a civilisati…

Pointing to a vague they makes for a very uninformative comment. I believe most people see a future where civilization progresses. There is just somewhat of a consensus, among left leaning people and groups of scientists, that we need to dial back energy usage short term, until the sources of that energy are moved away from fossil fuels. I don't think a willingness to accept less energy for a decade or two, constitut…

From a cost perspective, would dialing back on energy usage cost us more than moving to more expensive ways to generate energy? The primary reason why fossil fuel is the energy source of choice is the cost savings compared to more expensive alternatives. A lot can be built within a very short time frame if either A) money where no issue, or B) people were pressured enough to prioritize the climate over other more economical prioritizes.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#93
post #42

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

Indeed. "Fighting Climate Change" is all sunshine and rainbows and photovoltaics until you realise that the messaging has been thoroughly usurped by an anti-civilisation regressive agenda. They don't want people using cleaner energy; they primarily want people using less energy; they sell that goal with promotion of "eco" and "green" etc. I want us to use more AND cleaner energy; one without the other is a civilisati…

"anti-civilization agenda": well, no, but I see what you mean (I think). Most ecologists do promote another civilization, since they believe - rightly or not - that our current civilization will lead to an environmental collapse.

Deep ecologists have decided once and for all that technology and science won't provide the solution, hence what you call their " anti-civilization agenda".

Let's take a step back and look at things calmly. You want not to be restrained in your way of life. But a better efficiency enable to do the same with less energy. So you'd be not restrained in any way. Therefore there is no reason to want to use "more energy" as a goal by itself.

Better efficiency implies batter technologies and better Science. This is where too many ecologists get it wrong.

However, we can also say that technologies don't mechanically provide a better world.

Biotechnology has resulted in a massive use of pesticides that kills biodiversity while the agro-tech business make people fat through over-processed food and ingredients bad for health.

Technology also enable us to do industrial wonders but they also pollute (rare metal extraction for example).

Eating food bad for your health and living within high level of pollution don't look to me as great civilizational achievements, do they?

Last point: we need "clean energy", not "cleaner". Science has demonstrated how fast climate changes and biodiversity plummets. In the short term, the cleaner, the better - but that can last only during a rather short transition time to really clean energy.

Many countries have at last got out of endemic poverty. Many African countries before the Covid were growing their GDP by 3 to 5% per year. It's great but that means their use of energy is rising fast.

So to stop the climate change, we really need to transition much faster. Many ecologists don't see that transition even starting ; neither do they see science and technology provide the solution on the coming years. Hence their agenda of rationing.

I can't see that agenda being politically feasible. I personally conclude that we will hit a wall collectively. When climate will be so bad and the collapse of biodiversity will directly hit our way or life, then we will take the hard decisions.

I don't believe in a civilization collapse. Books by true historians have debunked every claim of a civilization collapse due to overuse of the natural resources. And even so, we are super resilient animals, super efficient as organizing and adapting when necessary.

But, as you rightly pointed out, we are not equal in this world. The huge costs when hitting the wall will not be fairly splitted. The wealthier you are in a wealthier country you are, the less you are likely to suffer from it.

Since you don't want any change in your way of life, you should aim to belong to the 1%. Because 99% of us will have to change.

And even so, being part of the 1% doesn't protect you totally, far from it. Driving a Bugatti won't matter much if a tree fall onto you because of a big storm. And you won't escape a pandemic either.

Some people prefer to be super rich and live in fear all the time of being attacked. I prefer a system where every job provides a decent way of life so streets are safe.

That is the same for climate. Some will prefer living in huge mansions with underground self-sufficient bunkers. I prefer that everyone gets to live in a super energy efficient place so that we don't need bunkers against tornadoes. Because when the tornado arrives, you'll making an errand 30 miles away and your children will be 10 miles from that bunker as well.

The solution is collective. Hence my pessimism: we will change our way of life only when it will have become unbearable. Nature will be deep into the already current 6th extinction, meaning that it will restart despite us. But that takes thousands of years. So we will have to change our way of life starting from a low point rather than starting now.

So the ecologists' agenda is not irrational. That may hurt your wanting to keep your way of life. Maybe you will be able to. But your children and your grandchildren will have quite different conditions.

Except if Science and technology provides a way out. Many bet on it. That's not irrational either but the time is the issue. We need to capture huge amounts of CO2 and methane in the next 20 years to maintain our way of life. Is this a reasonable bet?

Well, if we collectively invested trillions of dollars to reach that goal, I may take the bet. For now, we prefer bail-out the wealthier of us ; and some lunatics leaders around the world will force us to spend that money on the military.

"Good night and good luck".

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you switch all the wood burning in third world countries, and all the coal fired stations to natural gas, you reduce emissions considerably. You need to do this because third world countries can't afford renewables, or there simply isn't enough supply to roll it out quickly (within 10-20 years). But they burn a lot of wood, which is unnecessary, and can be switched to gas cheaply and easily. Considering it will st…

> If you switch all the wood burning in third world countries, and all the coal fired stations to natural gas, you reduce emissions considerably. Bottom line: the amount of CO₂ emitted by "third world" countries is miniscule and it is only a distraction to point to it. In 2020 the US alone emitted about as much CO₂ as all of Africa, India, and South America together: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emiss…

Have a read: https://woodsmokepollution.org/climate.html

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you switch all the wood burning in third world countries, and all the coal fired stations to natural gas, you reduce emissions considerably. Bottom line: the amount of CO₂ emitted by "third world" countries is miniscule and it is only a distraction to point to it. In 2020 the US alone emitted about as much CO₂ as all of Africa, India, and South America together: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emiss…

Have a read: https://woodsmokepollution.org/climate.html

I can't find the words "third world" in the link. Can you explain?

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much easier to maintain lifestyles by being more efficient than by any other means. Most energy is simply wasted. There is basically no downside to things like properly insulating houses (except perhaps the bottom line of the property developers).

And air quality concerns. You need to ventilate your home with outside air year round.

> And air quality concerns. You need to ventilate your home with outside air year round.

Look up HRV/ERVs.

You'll have better air quality by building a tight envelope and using mechanical ventilation because all the air from the outside will flow through filters. It then gets tempered by the exhausted stale air before being circulated.

A leaky house and ventilation through windows was fine in the 1920s, but we've better ways now.

(And operable windows won't go away: they're mandated for fire egress. So you can crack one open if you wish.)

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I then understood your comment about air quality concerns. What's the concern if ventilation works fine and energy efficiently?

Place a well insulated wall in the middle of a field. Add a tripled glazed window and 100% efficient ventilation. Which side of the wall is warmer than the other? Ideal indoor air quality is equal to outdoor air quality. This can only be achieved through air exchange. The ventilation process may be 100% efficient but the consequences of pumping outside air in and inside air out are the same. The air must be heated an…

> Ideal indoor air quality is equal to outdoor air quality.

Ideal indoor air quality is (can be) better than outdoor air quality. This is because when the outside air is brought in it passes through filters to get rid of things like dust and pollen.

> The air must be heated and costs some unit of energy to accomplish.

Unless you use passive solar thermal, i.e., let the sun heat the home:

* https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/passive-solar-home-design

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#98

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

Works in Norway but I believe the US still depends in large part on fossil fuels to generate electricity, no?

Replacing fossil fuels in electricity generation is a lot easier than replacing fossil fuels for heating, transportation, and industry.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#99
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Nuclear available now? In the UK it seems to take decades to build a nuclear power plant

Even if isn't available now, you can start building now. This isn't the gotcha many think it is. A nuclear plant will provide decades of energy without emitting carbon into the atmosphere. In all that time, build towards a future where the nuclear plant isn't needed. The promise of a wind and solar future is still several decades in the future. Why wait for that when we have a problem right now?

Because building a sufficient number on nuclear reactors will take a comparable amount of time to building a sufficient number of wind turbines, PV panels, and storage, while also posing problems with public acceptance and nuclear proliferation. It's also unclear whether that would be cheaper or more expensive.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#100

I'm hoping we get some new green movement soon that is much more pragmatic about how we can actually reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. Nuclear, and more natural gas are the answer, at least transitionally. Oh, and also I'd like to see green movements taking less Russian money... "People think Europe depends on Russia for energy because it lacks its own, but 15 years ago Europe exported more natural gas than Russia doe…

Barring breakthroughs in the construction and operation of nuclear reactors, nuclear power is not a short term solution. We can't build thousands of nuclear reactors globally and staff them with qualified personnel when constructing a small handful of reactors already takes 15+ years.
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