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Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

nih.gov

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Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#91

Post by nradov »

vmception wrote: post #21
ed25519FUUU wrote: post #13

I’m very surprised that “proof of immunity” isn’t an acceptable alternative to a vaccine for things like travel or work. It seems it’s either vaccine or bust. Anyone know why this is the case?

It is possible that consensus will shift towards that as soon as people start forging vaccine passports en masse and for more things Proof of immunity can have the server side component for verification, which was neglected for the vaccination effort

People are already forging CDC vaccination records en masse. All it takes is a printer and a ball point pen. Those aren't secure documents.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#92

Post by jandrewrogers »

jessriedel wrote: post #35
jandrewrogers wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are several such studies, all trivially discoverable. Here is one published in Nature last year, where they specifically also studied cross reactivity of SARS-2003 immune response with SARS-2019: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z Asking for a citation for something so trivially discoverable is a weird flex.

The discussion is improved by having sources for key claims linked directly here. I'm glad the question was asked, especially since it was done so politely.

I worked on COVID epidemiology last year for a couple governments, so I am more familiar with the literature than most people. I don’t expect people to be as familiar as I am.

However, the bane of my existence the last year have been people with strong opinions on “the science” on both sides that use “citation please” as a passive aggressive dismissal from a position of ignorance, and will promptly ignore any citations offered. The Internet is rife with it, and I generally avoid these kinds of discussions.

That may not have been the OP’s intent but I was admittedly playing the overwhelming odds. People that genuinely want to know these things can easily find and access most of the primary sources (some government research is non-public). That’s the best source for all information on COVID, the media has done a terrible job representing it. I didn’t have the above citation ready, I googled it and it came up right near the top.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#93

Post by maxerickson »

saalweachter wrote: post #89
singhrac wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So not to pour more anecdotal fuel on the fire, so to speak, but I know of someone who had a confirmed case of COVID last spring in the US, then was tested for antibodies this spring and had few, and then caught it again in India a few weeks ago. Each time was symptomatic. Again, a single data point, I'd be happy to believe that there's lasting immunity.

With the re-infection rate given above -- 1 in 1000 -- if people ~know about 100 people, you'd expect about 1 in 10 people to have an anecdote about someone getting COVID twice.

Need to account for % infected.

I know of ~3 people that I know that have been infected. That's not counting a few people at work that I don't really know and things like that.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#94

Post by mlboss »

sterlind wrote: post #78
halfjoking wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm hoping it will be since I have longcovid and don't want the vaccine. Anyone who is willing to pay for the new T-Cell test [1] and is positive should be given the same rights as any vaccine passport provides. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/t-cell-sc...

there's been reporting that the vaccines help some sufferers of long covid. surely you don't have much to lose by trying, right?

Yes. Around 30% people see improvement in symptoms after getting vaccine shot.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/vaccines-long-covid

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#95

Post by [deleted] »

sterlind wrote: post #78
halfjoking wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm hoping it will be since I have longcovid and don't want the vaccine. Anyone who is willing to pay for the new T-Cell test [1] and is positive should be given the same rights as any vaccine passport provides. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/t-cell-sc...

there's been reporting that the vaccines help some sufferers of long covid. surely you don't have much to lose by trying, right?

[deleted]

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#96

Post by lamontcg »

maxerickson wrote: post #54
macksd wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this part I'm less confident in, but my understanding is the protein spike is unlikely to mutate because it's exactly what allows the virus to bind where it does. If that mutated and that mutation was still somehow successful, I believe it likely wouldn't be as bad a virus.

My understanding is that virologists and immunologists can't really estimate the chance of a more virulent strain that escapes antibodies analytically, because the probability space is too big. A mutation might escape antibodies but also greatly inhibit how fast it spreads, and so on.

Its been passed around on TWiV and immunologist twitter awhile back that there's ~20 different epitopes on the spike protein that would need to mutate in order to achieve immune escape.

The read on that is that immune escape should come at a cost to fitness and less virulence and transmissibility. The virus will have to "pay" with fitness in order to buy stealth.

At the same time though there have very obviously been multiple different mutations on the spike protein which have enhanced binding / viral load / transmissibility / virulence. So the virus clearly has some room to maneuver in that space.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#97

Post by halfjoking »

mlboss wrote: post #94
sterlind wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there's been reporting that the vaccines help some sufferers of long covid. surely you don't have much to lose by trying, right?

Yes. Around 30% people see improvement in symptoms after getting vaccine shot. https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/vaccines-long-covid

And 15% get worse. Since I’m better, running 5 miles with 0 symptoms afterwards, why risk relapse?

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#98

Post by dboreham »

nradov wrote: post #91
vmception wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible that consensus will shift towards that as soon as people start forging vaccine passports en masse and for more things Proof of immunity can have the server side component for verification, which was neglected for the vaccination effort

People are already forging CDC vaccination records en masse. All it takes is a printer and a ball point pen. Those aren't secure documents.

Luckily they don't need to be (assuming you're talking about the USA) because the authorative source is a government database not some piece of paper.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#99

Post by jandrewrogers »

lamontcg wrote: post #87
jandrewrogers wrote: post #15

This was completely expected, since this is the case with the other coronaviruses. People that contracted SARS-CoV-1 still have a strong immune response almost 20 years later.

What has been shown is that if you introduce the SARS-CoV-1 peptide ex vivo into cells drawn from the blood of survivors that there's a IFN-gamma response from T-cells. That shows that there's clearly some memory in the immune system, but it isn't like they did challenge testing with live SARS-CoV-1 virus to survivors to see if they got sick or not. And we now know that the presence of a T-cell immune reaction is not…

Yeah, I don’t think anyone is modeling this as something that can be eradicated, even ignoring the zoonotic aspects. The assumption, which seems quite reasonable from my perspective, is that it will become background noise long term. Never eliminated but with greatly reduced virulence.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#100

Post by dboreham »

timr wrote: post #56
paxys wrote: post #12

This is promising. Anecdotally though, I know people in India who got covid (with symptoms) twice or even thrice over the last 12 months. I imagine antibody generation is different for different people, and/or response to variants of the virus is different.

This sounds apocryphal. Second infections are incredibly rare , let alone three in twelve months. Like clockwork, every discussion of this matter on a discussion board brings out at least one person claiming to know people who have been re-infected, yet the number of confirmed examples is measured in the low hundreds, worldwide.

Confirmed examples perhaps, but if the reinvention rate is 1 in 1000 as stated elsewhere here then the true number worldwide is orders of magnitude higher than a few hundred.
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