Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#91

Post by brigandish » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:31 AM UTC

lhl wrote: post #28

timr wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. I lived in Japan, have many friends there whom I keep in touch with, and watch the local news regularly. The restrictions in the major cities have been substantially fewer than we've had here in the US. There have been…

It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for…

The biggest difference is in the waistlines. As reported just the other day[0]:

> Of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight

Japan is not one of those countries.

As someone who lives in Japan I can tell you that the general population isn't wearing high quality, fitted masks in controlled conditions and using their clinical training to avoid disease transmission, which might provide the conditions that any study done on masks could have the possibility to back. No, there's plenty of cheap, reused, badly fitted, incorrectly worn, regularly touched and inconsistent mask wearing by people who've not had any training in how to limit transmission, which would explain the frequent flu epidemics[1][2][3].

[0] https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-an...

[1] https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00386/japan-gripped-by...

[2] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/e609ee653721-flu-...

[3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28668446/

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#92

Post by Tor3 » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:32 AM UTC

Blikkentrekker wrote: post #72

steelframe wrote: post #12

> it peaked at more than 2,500 cases per day in Tokyo That's 0.027% of the population of Tokyo per day in a city that has over 6,000 people packed in per square kilometer. By comparison, Idaho has a population density of 7.64 people per square kilometer, and right now the infection rate there is 0.021% of its population per day. That's only a 30% difference in percentage of population infected per day, but there are…

I have read a very interesting theory in that it is about how Japanese is spoken. There is an interesting trick that is often taught to students of Japanese to faithfully reproduce the sounds in the language: that is to cover one's teeth with one's lips while speaking as much as possible, as most of the characteristic sounds of Japanese are caused by this. This greatly reduces the amount of air that escapes as one sp…

I'm exposed to native Japanese every day and I can't see how this hypothesis could have any merit.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#93

Post by HenryBemis » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:35 AM UTC

dagw wrote: post #88

zpeti wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? Lots, probably hundreds. Most of them conclude 'it depends, but basically not worth it'. But the gist is that if you are already a functioning city and popular tourist spot (like London) you'll get close to zero benefit (at massive costs). London actually significantly had less total tourists the year…

The upside is that you modernise your city.

In this case, they would have receive X thousand/million of tourists, which they won't come. If you travel to Japan (e.g. from Europe) you don't just go for the events. You also say an extra 5-10 days. That is a big loss for the tourist industry, the millions of mouths eating in restaurants, drinking in bars, and on top of the costs/profits, imagien that the state takes a 5-10-20% on taxes, which would be reinvested to the country (education, infrastructure, health, etc.)

It is a worse case sceario for the country. All these expenses and not near enought he revenue..

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#94

Post by kalleboo » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:45 AM UTC

jobigoud wrote: post #36

nradov wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am skeptical that mask usage is the major factor. The lower obesity rate probably has a larger impact. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-020-00462-1

The comparison was on case rate. Being obese doesn't make you more likely to catch the virus afaik.

I could see being obese making you more likely to be symptomatic, and hence more likely to get tested and show up as a case statistic

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#95

Post by ekianjo » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:46 AM UTC

zpeti wrote: post #66

book-sandworm wrote: post #46

This is such a painful situation for Japan. When I visited a couple a years ago the preparations were still going full force. They were so proud and looking forward to hosting it. Really think they are between a rock and a hard place with any decision. This together with all the sub-human conditions the workers in Qatar for the football world championship make it seem like organising events like this not something I…

Are their any actual legit studies that have shown if hosting an olympics is worth it for the overall economy or not? For example I think the olympics put Barcelona on the map for a lot of tourists and they’ve been reaping the rewards since, but it seems to me that’s more of an exception than the rule.

Usually not worth it. And most facilities are decay into ruins or are completely under utilized. Olympic games of Waste.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#96

Post by dagw » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:46 AM UTC

Blikkentrekker wrote: post #67

marakv2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We arnt looking forward to it. We never really wanted it. Edit: sorry that's a bit generic, but I have never heard anyone say they are looking forward to the Olympics locally, pre covid, and post, I hear a lot of people wtf'ing it's going ahead. It's completely anecdotal, but as a private teacher at 4 different schools I have a wide pool.

It would not surprise me if only 10% of the population cared. But 10% is quite a large number for any event, and sure to bring in quite a bit of profit. Name me a concert that 10% of the population claims to wish to attend? The majority indeed does not care, but a sufficiently high number does that it is profitable.

London apparently saw a drop in spending at shops, restaurants and tourist destinations over the Olympic summer due to so many people (both tourists and locals) fearing the chaos the Olympics would cause and deciding to stay away

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#97

Post by Xixi » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:50 AM UTC

HeavenFox wrote: post #18

This seems like the worst outcome for Japan and best outcome for the IOC. Japan incurs all the cost of hosting the Olympics while reaping none of the tourist yen, while the IOC gets paid the broadcasting fee. At this point the optimal outcome for Japan is probably to cancel the game altogether. Is it an example of the political pull of the IOC? The Asian culture of face-saving? Or plain old sunk cost fallacy? I hones…

My understanding is that the problem are broadcasters and sponsors.

If Japan pulls the plug, they are likely on the hook to pay back billions to broadcasters and sponsors. So thinking purely in terms of USD, it might actually be cheaper to press forward than to cancel the games.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#98

Post by Mauricebranagh » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:51 AM UTC

book-sandworm wrote: post #46

This is such a painful situation for Japan. When I visited a couple a years ago the preparations were still going full force. They were so proud and looking forward to hosting it. Really think they are between a rock and a hard place with any decision. This together with all the sub-human conditions the workers in Qatar for the football world championship make it seem like organising events like this not something I…

Well possibly such events should be not be awarded to countries with poor worker protection and H&S rule? do you think your country falls into this group.

Also you know that Ireland deliberately wanted to lose Eurovision at one point.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#99

Post by profunctor » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:53 AM UTC

h0nd wrote: post #87

SonicTheSith wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are aware that we have a global pandemic right? So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the chance that there is 1 infectious person/ person becoming infectious is high. All Tests are snapshots…

Thank you, I feel this needs some explanation. >You are aware that we have a global pandemic right? It would be a very difficult task to avoid noticing. >So if even you won't treat everyone as a possible threat, the chance that 'guests' bring in the virus is high. Since Japan is an island, most people will fly there by plane and most people will be inside the plane for at least 6 hours+. Even if at half capacity the…

I am discriminated against because I can't just move to America. I need a visa to live there and Americans don't. Discrimination! I am discriminated against because I am not considered for jobs I don't have the skills to perform. It's fine to discriminate under sensible circumstances, such as stopping millions of people coming to your country during a pandemic.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#100

Post by hrktb » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 11:56 AM UTC

DocTomoe wrote: post #83

hrktb wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been memeing "Stop it! Stop it" [0] for a while now. To take with a shovel of salt of course, but that feeling of just getting shafted by the corrupt politicians and the IOC, and just not wanting more money to go into the pit is echoed by the people in my small sphere. [0] https://www.cnnphilippines.com/sports/2020/3/4/tokyo-2020-ol...

I doubt you will find any Olympic Games in the last 40 sears that did not attract people being opposed to them. In the end, it binds resources some thing may be used more efficiently elsewhere, as if the money is gone after spending it.

In this case in particular, what started as mostly a joke got fueled by the cost paid for postponing the event, coupled with the eventual penalties that would apply if the event was canceled altogether.

There was a heated moment the first time the gov had to decide wether to swallow the sunk costs and just cancel everything, or only postpone, hoping the situation would be better after a few months.

The first set of damages have already be paid, so now whatever the course of events, Olympics will be a pretty bitter subject for most people I think.

Edit: postponing was not penalties per se, more contracting and maintenance costs. Fixed the wording,