UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates • Hacker News Board

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#91

Post by rasz » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

websites222 wrote: post #82

mcv wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why Europe yes but US no? Europe is also not immigrant-averse and not an island. It doesn't border on Mexico, but it does border on many other countries. I don't see why Europe would suffer a much different fate from the US. I think the main thing holding the EU back is their love for austerity. They could do a lot more to invest in their economy.

Europe as a going United concern is headed towards a breakup. Germany’s demographics (and patience) will not not hold to support countries like Greece and Italy, which funded pensions instead of spending their bailouts responsibly. France will flourish, like it always does, because it’s more or less self sufficient and is strategically located and internally configured, but other countries like Spain will flounder du…

Support Greece? By forcing it to pay back bad German bank loans that should be defaulted?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#92

Post by godtoldmetodoit » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

websites222 wrote: post #26

1experience wrote: post #15

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interes…

You might want to mention some sources in case people are interested in reading more on this theory.

Namely: Peter Zeihan. I'm a fan of the guy - his logic and rough predictions certainly seem to be bearing fruit over the last decade. If he's right about the coming decade we are in for a bit of a bumpy ride.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#93

Post by websites222 » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 5:36 PM UTC

godtoldmetodoit wrote: post #92

websites222 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interes…

You might want to mention some sources in case people are interested in reading more on this theory. Namely: Peter Zeihan. I'm a fan of the guy - his logic and rough predictions certainly seem to be bearing fruit over the last decade. If he's right about the coming decade we are in for a bit of a bumpy ride.

Agreed! I'm plagiarizing wholesale from Peter Zeihan, I'm not a geopolitical expert. I recently read Disunited Nations. His YouTube videos and podcasts are very interesting.

Re: your comment about being in for a bumpy ride: I think his logic is solid in that the bumpy ride is only in relation to the unprecedented post-WWII/post-cold-war era. We know from history that the norm in the world is instability.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#94

Post by LatteLazy » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 6:04 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #86

LatteLazy wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is exactly my thought. All this can do in practise is reduce mortgage and other loan rates further and punish anyone holding cash. I'm not saying that's a good or bad thing, but I don't think any normal people will be able to borrow a billion pounds and then just live off the negative interest rate...

This is the fundamental problem. 0% interest rates make it easier to start a business, but your startup doesn't get to borrow at 0% because there is the very real risk that your startup will fail. You'll get a nice 8% interest loan at best and no loan at all in most cases. That risk doesn't exist for large companies but they don't have to invest their dollars domestically or even productively. They can spend them any…

I think this is like morphine: really stops the pain, until you're so addicted it kills you.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#95

Post by u678u » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 6:09 PM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #41

u678u wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd immediately request MAXINT. Would you really though. They're trying to avoid deflation, if/when that happens the value of property and shares falls each year. What would you do with your loan if all assets fall in value each year?

They're trying to avoid retail deflation. That is not usually related to asset deflation. Asset inflation has been raging for at least a decade, maybe 2, inflating stock assets, housing and commodities, bitcoin and anything else which promises some return to unseen levels, since they started QE and dropped the low risk rate of return to 0. Retail inflation which they're trying to control is pretty much unaffected by…

> Asset inflation has been raging for at least a decade, maybe 2, inflating stock assets, housing and commodities, bitcoin

In the US maybe, in the UK the FTSE100 has been pretty flat for over twenty years. Yes houses have gone up a lot, do you really think that can continue? Commodities are flat in the last few decades.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#96

Post by thu2111 » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

me_me_me wrote: post #87

websites222 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe as a going United concern is headed towards a breakup. Germany’s demographics (and patience) will not not hold to support countries like Greece and Italy, which funded pensions instead of spending their bailouts responsibly. France will flourish, like it always does, because it’s more or less self sufficient and is strategically located and internally configured, but other countries like Spain will flounder du…

Maybe if you are writing a political thriller. EU as a concept is still highly supported amongst adults and young adults. And if anything Brexit strengthened that, since UK is a now a clown that everyone laughs at with all the issues they are going through. A lot of young people migrate between EU countries and just that is the biggest visible positive that all working adults recognise. Its something people would not…

Die Zeit: "In the dispute over the delivery delay of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the EU Commission is currently making the best advertisement for Brexit: It is acting slowly, bureaucratically, and protectionist. And if something goes wrong, it’s everyone else’s fault. This is how many Britons see the EU, and so the prejudices were confirmed at the beginning of the week"

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-01/astrazeneca-eu-k...

MSN Money: "Bild tore apart Von Der Leyen's explanation of the vaccine delays and threat to stop supplies heading to the UK line by line, accusing her of placing 'junk' orders for vaccines three months behind Britain. 'She says: "We know that there is no time to lose in a pandemic," but what she means is: "We may have wasted time. But we will NEVER admit that",' the newspaper wrote. Meanwhile 'Brexit Brits continue to receive full supplies,' the paper added.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-media-savages-e...

New York Times: "E.U. Makes a Sudden and Embarrassing U-Turn on Vaccines"

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/30/world/europe/covid-vaccin...

The Telegraph: De Standaard, a Belgian newspaper, said the success of the Prime Minister’s move was a source of great frustration to the French, in particular, who are lagging far behind in their vaccine programme. It suggested that Brexiteers would take heart from that because Paris had regularly taken a hardline stance in the Brexit negotiations. The Flemish newspaper said that Mr Johnson liked to take risks and in this case, as opposed to in Brexit, the gambit had worked.

An El Mundo editorial accused the EU of a "failure" on vaccine procurement, citing a "lack of coordination between member states to articulate a homogeneous process" which is "ruining the prospect of achieving herd immunity after the summer"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/28/best-advertiseme...

Daniel Stelter, Manager Magazin: It is dawning on the German and European population that the political class has failed across the board in meeting the enormous economic and social challenges of the Corona crisis. It marks the accelerating decline of the EU. Everybody in the economic sphere now knows that whenever there is a problem at a production site in the EU, there is a risk of being hit with an export ban: vaccines today, biotech tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow what? This destruction of trust in the EU as a place of business (Standort EU) is all of a piece with its tendency towards over-regulation and planned-economy control. The gap between wish and reality in the EU is greater than ever. By failing to procure vaccines, the EU has validated Brexit and given all EU citizens an objective reason for euroscepticism.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/exp...

But yeah sure, it's a clown and everyone is laughing ... all the stuff I just quoted is fiction only happening in a political thriller.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#97

Post by smooth_remmy » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 6:47 PM UTC

ardy42 wrote: post #67

frockington1 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option

> Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option I thought Canada was far easier. I knew a software engineer who, about 15 years ago, got the Canadian equivalent of a green card as a "backup" without ever having actually lived ther…

Canada is easier for legal immigrants, and much harder for illegal immigrants.

If you try to illegally immigrate into Canada, they will deport you

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#98

Post by grey-area » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 6:56 PM UTC

u678u wrote: post #95

grey-area wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're trying to avoid retail deflation. That is not usually related to asset deflation. Asset inflation has been raging for at least a decade, maybe 2, inflating stock assets, housing and commodities, bitcoin and anything else which promises some return to unseen levels, since they started QE and dropped the low risk rate of return to 0. Retail inflation which they're trying to control is pretty much unaffected by…

> Asset inflation has been raging for at least a decade, maybe 2, inflating stock assets, housing and commodities, bitcoin In the US maybe, in the UK the FTSE100 has been pretty flat for over twenty years. Yes houses have gone up a lot, do you really think that can continue? Commodities are flat in the last few decades.

No I don't think the asset bubble can or will continue indefinitely, hence the last sentence above.

Re commodities Gold has risen a lot in the last couple of decades.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#99

Post by me_me_me » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 7:13 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #96

me_me_me wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe if you are writing a political thriller. EU as a concept is still highly supported amongst adults and young adults. And if anything Brexit strengthened that, since UK is a now a clown that everyone laughs at with all the issues they are going through. A lot of young people migrate between EU countries and just that is the biggest visible positive that all working adults recognise. Its something people would not…

Die Zeit: "In the dispute over the delivery delay of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the EU Commission is currently making the best advertisement for Brexit: It is acting slowly, bureaucratically, and protectionist. And if something goes wrong, it’s everyone else’s fault. This is how many Britons see the EU, and so the prejudices were confirmed at the beginning of the week" https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-01/astraz…

What are you even trying to say though?

I command you for putting effort to writing a post.

But you probably have no idea of british politics beyond headlines for newspapers. Uk dealing with covid was a circus on fire.

Here [0] UK has highest death per capita behind Belgium (super high pop density) and Slovenia (they had also excelent ideas on dealing with covid - have slovenian friend).

Johnsons gov did multiple 180 when dealing with covid, recently promised schools will stay absolutely open, only to closed them after 1 day that they were open.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-deat...

I am not going to change you mind anyhow so have a great day living in your political thriller.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#100

Post by tzs » Thu, Feb 04, 2021, 7:25 PM UTC

_-david-_ wrote: post #58

GordonS wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island As the past 4 years have demonstrated, there is a very large segment of the US population is very much against immigration, and would happily turn the country into an "island" by building walls around the land borders.

That is not really the case. The last poll I saw said 78% of Americans are fine with some immigration. The exact amount of immigrants and the requirements to come here legally is less uniform in acceptance. The biggest issue is between legal and illegal immigration.

That 78% breaks down to something like 90% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and 60% of Republicans.

Among the Republicans, the 40% who are anti-immigration tend to feel very strongly about it, and are likely to consider it a major issue. The 60% of Republicans who are OK with immigration are less likely to consider it a major issue.

This makes it hard nowadays to get Republican support in the House for pro-immigration policies, because a pro-immigration Republican member of the House will attract anti-immigration primary challengers who will get the vote of the 40% who are anti-immigration. With that big bloc in hand its hard for the challenger to lose.

You can see a similar thing with abortion. About 60% of Republicans favor keeping Roe v. Wade, about 30% want to overturn it, and the rest are unsure [1]. But how many Republican members of Congress will come out or vote in favor of keeping Roe v. Wade? Pretty close to zero because doing so is political suicide in their next election.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-...