From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages • Hacker News Board

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#91

Post by jellicle » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #69

dragonwriter wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In America, it used to be common for young men in high school and college to do construction work during the summer. Now, it's mostly immigrants. Because college or college-bound adults are, if they are motivated enough to work in the first place, mostly focussed on work that provides a competitive advantage in college admissions and post-college careers, which trade labor mostly isn't.

And because young people are less physically fit than they used to be, so they don't have the muscle and stamina required by such jobs. But the reasons why are almost irrelevant. The pertinent detail is that employers can't fill these jobs without immigrant labor. Most Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

I would suggest advertising some fruit-picking jobs at a guaranteed $50/hour to test your theory that Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#92

Post by beberlei » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

banmeagaindan2 wrote: post #88

aazaa wrote: post #60

> From Huelva to Hamburg and Newcastle to Naples, Europe’s farmers are struggling to find people to bring in rapidly ripening fruits and vegetables, which frequently must be hand-picked, usually within a window of just a few days. They typically rely on seasonal workers from eastern Europe or northern Africa, but fears of the coronavirus are keeping hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers from leaving home, and con…

I am up for doing some fruit picking if it can be organized correctly. The strategy of allowing in migrant labour would be a political fiasco.

There is a platform for Germany by the ministry of agriculture organizing it and it seems they had 30k prospects last week: www.daslandhilft.de - one problem as I understood is that this is not all unskilled laborer work, but the there is quite some machinery involved where skilled personal is required.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#93

Post by DoreenMichele » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

jellicle wrote: post #91

DoreenMichele wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because young people are less physically fit than they used to be, so they don't have the muscle and stamina required by such jobs. But the reasons why are almost irrelevant. The pertinent detail is that employers can't fill these jobs without immigrant labor. Most Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

I would suggest advertising some fruit-picking jobs at a guaranteed $50/hour to test your theory that Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

That's not "my theory." That's what I have read over and over for some years now.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#94

Post by lnsru » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

downshun wrote: post #76

What is limiting robot-assisted telemetric food harvesting? Why cant I connect to the web with a gaming console, play farmer and be rewarded for it? The data could eventually be used to develop self-harvesting farms. There's already automated computer assisted surgery, so is this really that far off? Is it desirable? It runs eventually into a similar problem as self-driving cars and the looming unemployment of trucke…

This pandemic will boost automation for sure. I hope, I can transform my side project to robotics startup afterwards. Current home office regulation saves me commuting time and I can do more development for myself.

Outdoor machinery is hard topic by itself. It’s not comparable to controlled environment where surgery robots operate. It’s permanent dirt, dust and changing weather conditions.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#95

Post by Fronzie » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

Zenst wrote: post #54

partingshots wrote: post #4

Doesn’t the Netherlands export the majority of Europe’s fresh food? As long as the supply chain doesn’t break down, I don’t see how it would be possible for Spain and Germany to run out of food. Especially since they’re all in the EU, even if the Netherlands wanted to close off their borders, there’s no way they really could.

Spain grows most of the fruit and veg, whilst the netherlands grow mostly flowers. The demand for flowers has somewhat waned and recently saw an article of flower farmers in Africa suffering as nowhere to sell and case of piles of flowers composting away. The impact in that market will be very impacting.

Netherlands does lots of pigs and tomatoes too. Apparently a fair amount of dairy as well.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#96

Post by banmeagaindan2 » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #69

dragonwriter wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In America, it used to be common for young men in high school and college to do construction work during the summer. Now, it's mostly immigrants. Because college or college-bound adults are, if they are motivated enough to work in the first place, mostly focussed on work that provides a competitive advantage in college admissions and post-college careers, which trade labor mostly isn't.

And because young people are less physically fit than they used to be, so they don't have the muscle and stamina required by such jobs. But the reasons why are almost irrelevant. The pertinent detail is that employers can't fill these jobs without immigrant labor. Most Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

It does not need to be most Americans and a lot of office workers would prefer to be farmers if the wage were correct.

We have markets - let the prices rise and we will see more farmers in the future.

E; I know it is not your theory Doreen - but it is a popular species of liberal (meaning democrat + republican) political propaganda.

Everything Moravec's Paradox ever said, everything Peter Thiel ever said about automation - it's right in front of us now.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#97

Post by baybal2 » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

yunusabd wrote: post #90

baybal2 wrote: post #68

Coworkers in Shenzhen are already saying that more fancier foods are already getting scarcer in the inland China, and prices are going up by day. China has done a massive livestock slaughter campaign when the quarantine was declared. That has actually depressed the food prices quite a bit for the first months, but after that, the prices have shot up. This is how they got that much meat: https://mustsharenews.com/wp-c…

Your second link goes to a still image. I assume you mean this [1] video? Though I don't see how that supports the statement that China has spent a big portion of its national reserve. [1] https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/122072527639456563...

China imports a gigantic amount of food, and ports were first to be hit by disruption. As a person who works in OEM electronics in China, I can tell at least that.

So, at any normal day, China would've been eating 30-32% of world's food by value, while producing 20% of it by itself.

Agriculture has been on shutdown for the past 2.5 months. Farms have slaughtered a large portion of their livestock, and a big portion of the seedstock has been used for food in the last few months too.

Chinese national reserves were said to be able to keep the country going for 3 months under a strict rationing regime, which we haven't seen, but at least we know by many accounts that meat reserves have been released all across China with no restraint.

Now try guessing how much of it left.

P.S. On ports. I initially wrote them being shut down, I correct that they are facing major disruption, with a lot of ships missing their berthing timeslots

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#98

Post by jandrewrogers » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

jopsen wrote: post #78

DoreenMichele wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because young people are less physically fit than they used to be, so they don't have the muscle and stamina required by such jobs. But the reasons why are almost irrelevant. The pertinent detail is that employers can't fill these jobs without immigrant labor. Most Americans don't want them at any pay rate.

At 20 USD/hour I think you would be able to fill these jobs. But if you want to make that salary picking fruit, then we'll have to pay more for it -- or you'll need to have some automation to increase productivity. I doubt we'll want to pay more, consumers would rather buy imports instead.

Migrant labor was $20-25/hour over a decade ago in parts of the rural US where I knew the rough market rate. You are greatly underestimating what a market clearing wage that would entice people to live out there looks like.

The $100+k oil companies are required to pay to entice Americans to work in their remote oil fields is much closer to the reality.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#99

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

yunusabd wrote: post #90

baybal2 wrote: post #68

Coworkers in Shenzhen are already saying that more fancier foods are already getting scarcer in the inland China, and prices are going up by day. China has done a massive livestock slaughter campaign when the quarantine was declared. That has actually depressed the food prices quite a bit for the first months, but after that, the prices have shot up. This is how they got that much meat: https://mustsharenews.com/wp-c…

Your second link goes to a still image. I assume you mean this [1] video? Though I don't see how that supports the statement that China has spent a big portion of its national reserve. [1] https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/122072527639456563...

[deleted]

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#100

Post by dirtyid » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 6:25 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #68

Coworkers in Shenzhen are already saying that more fancier foods are already getting scarcer in the inland China, and prices are going up by day. China has done a massive livestock slaughter campaign when the quarantine was declared. That has actually depressed the food prices quite a bit for the first months, but after that, the prices have shot up. This is how they got that much meat: https://mustsharenews.com/wp-c…

Likely coming to the US too, big suppliers are ringing very small producers to fill in orders because US can't get any Mexican farmhands in. Canada is exempting and flying in migrant labours. There's also panic in meat supply chains with Tyson strikes. I'd like to think Canada is safe but prices would probably get nutty if there's excess US demand unless we ban exports. Also migrant labours live like sardines, 20+ sharing a 2 bedroom kind of density. Huge infection vector.

RE: China, last I read, China is nominally food secure - produce enough calories to feed everyone domestically on basic staples. There's also massive waste and spoilage in the supply chain. I don't predict a famine, or 5 missing meals to revolution, but shortage of luxury items is probably expected.

That said, global food supply shortage/shock due to everyone adjusting to COVID is definitely "the cure is worse than the disease" scenario.