Live data from Hacker News

Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

epicentro.iss.it

91–96 of 96 posts

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elderly folks aren’t necessarily out and about drinking espresso and touching surfaces yet alone having younger asymptomatic carriers cough on them. From what I understand about Italian culture, they kind of are. Older Italians seem to have much stronger social lives than in the US.

There’s truth to this and perhaps I jumped to an invalid American based assumption, stupid given that I’m European. In Europe, the elderly are out and about, walking, sitting at parks, drinking coffee, the works. They’re actually still doing this as we speak in countries, from what friends and family tell me. Go figure. However, even if they are in cafes, grocery stores, parks - the numbers are still very high. This…

> This virus is either incredibly efficient and contagious (spread by totally asymptotic carrier pigeon patients > elderly) and/or it’s been there for a long time. Months.

It's incredibly contagious. Infection rate doubles every 2.5 days.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#92

Some interesting data here. - Mean age of 79.5 sheds light on Italy’s extremely high fatality rates; in essence, it’s the (very) elderly that are dying due to complications from viral pneumonia. Which begs the next question... Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and not antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine? Sure, these are “experimental” therapies but decent data…

It is everywhere. The 'pockets' you think you are seeing are an artifact of exponential growth. When infection rate doubles every 2.5 days, the incubation time is 5-14 days and it take 3-4 weeks to die the first 4 weeks look harmless. But by then it is already well out of control.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#93
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. They don’t gain if they end up killing the host because that ends them too. Not to sound apocalyptic but I think their holy grail is something like what the machines do to humans in the movie Matrix

> Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. That assumption has no basis at all. Evolutionary pressures don't happen due to a intentional guidance from the evolving species. Individuals mutate by chance and replicate as they can. That's it.

This does have basis Refer to this section in the publication from National Academy of Sciences. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/?report=reader#...

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#94

Some interesting data here. - Mean age of 79.5 sheds light on Italy’s extremely high fatality rates; in essence, it’s the (very) elderly that are dying due to complications from viral pneumonia. Which begs the next question... Why are they overwhelmingly treating patients with antibiotics in cases of viral pneumonia and not antivirals (Remdesivir)/ chloroquine? Sure, these are “experimental” therapies but decent data…

https://www.statista.com/statistics/433390/individuals-who-c... 24% smoke in Italy

Perhaps it doesn't matter that much how many people smoke right now, but how much lung damage they accrued during their lifetime.

The median age of the deceased is around 80 years.

According to a random source I found on the internets, in the 1950s and 1970s between 70% and 50% of the male population was smoking:

https://www.niussp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Schermata-...

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#95
post #11

I found page 3 most remarkable: 48% of those who die of covid-19 in Italy also suffer from three or more other diseases (or did recently), and 99.2% suffer from one or more.

A very high fraction of folks past age 75 have one or more of these diseases. Before concluding that they contribute, the next question should be, how many people in that population at that age have ZERO comorbid diseases? Likely, it's very few. So these comorbidities may actually have little causal role leading to mortality. We can't know from just this data. Until we learn more, we can't conclude 1) that comorbidit…

there is also the possibility that the comorbidities are indeed causal but we can't do anything about it since most elderly people would have them anyway, and hence besides being an interesting fact it's effectively indistinguishable from a pure statistical age correlation.

Re: Report on the characteristics of Covid-19 positive deceased patients in Italy [pdf]

#96
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isolate the elderly and unwell, let the virus spread among the rest.

How could you possibly isolate 10s of millions of people who are thoroughly mixed in with the rest of society? Many of them live with or are dependent on the younger healthier people. Even if the isolation were possible, letting the virus spread like that would overwhelm the health system and push the death rate way up.

The same way they're doing it now.
Post reply on HN