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Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

nature.com

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Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#91

Post by i_am_nomad »

phkahler wrote: post #66
i_am_nomad wrote: post #38

To those of you worried about a global outbreak: USAMRIID is closing in on a highly effective (near 100%) treatment for Ebola. So far it is 100% successful in macaques, which is a good animal model for the disease in humans. The project lead spoke to my research group - his talk about Ebola, and some of the cultural and geographic challenges in fighting it, was fascinating.

There are vaccines being tested on people in DRC right now. Is there any data coming back on those? I dont care much about macaques.

As I mentioned, macaques are in this case a pretty good predictor for efficacy in humans. I don’t have data on the human trials though.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#92

Post by TallGuyShort »

i_am_nomad wrote: post #90
TallGuyShort wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious to learn more about how well we can ramp up production and distribution of such drugs in the event of a fast-moving pandemic. With Ebola you have 1-2 weeks after symptoms before death is likely. You have a few more weeks after exposure, but you might not know you're exposed and I would assume the treatment needs time and can't save you at the last minute. If everyone around was clamoring for treatment, co…

Sorry, I don’t know much about large-scale production of that type of compound, it’s not my field. But, I would question the premise, in that Ebola is not a likely candidate for a fast-moving pandemic.

... well now I'm curious to what the likely candidates are :) This is one of those topics I could just sit and learn about all day, I think it's fascinating. If you or someone else in your research group were willing to do an AMA, I would thoroughly enjoy that.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#93

Post by edubs25 »

low_roar1 wrote: post #50
edubs25 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ebola should actually be easier to contain in any civilized country such as the US. Quarantine measures and disposing of infected bodies properly would limit the pandemic. I would be careful of the use of the word 'civilized' in this context. You're implying DRC and/or other African countries are uncivilized. Which is just not true.

> I would be careful of the use of the word 'civilized' in this context. You're implying DRC and/or other African countries are uncivilized. Which is just not true. No, I stand by what I said and by the following definitions of the word "civilized", and never talked about "other African countries": > easy to manage or control; well organized or ordered: > having an advanced or humane culture, society, etc. Given the…

> easy to manage or control; well organized or ordered: > having an advanced or humane culture, society, etc.

So the US meets these characteristics by your logic but DRC does not? Have you traveled much in rural/poor US? Have you been to puerto rico? Are those areas equally uncivilized? Would you characterize south chicago as uncivilized as well?

In anthropology (maybe specifically american anthropology), the descriptor 'civilized' was pretty much thrown out during their reformation (I think it was 1970s?). At best, today it's pretty much considered a coded term for 'not conforming to my view of what a society should look like'(aka it's ethnocentrically viewed as inferior). At worst, you can tie the usages of the descriptors 'barbaric' and 'civilized' back to the biological determinism and eugenics movements.

>Given the tragedy that has been going on for more than half a century in that part of the world, I couldn't care less about euphemisms and political correctness, they have not solved anything.

What tragedy? and which part of the world? DRC is not near Liberia or Guinea where the other more recent highly publicized Ebola outbreaks have been. Are you referring to the civil war in DRC? It's really complicated and at the end of the day has root causes that tie back to neocolonialism and colonialism constructs created by so-called civilized societies.

I'm not trying to be politically correct. I wasn't even being all that critical of your original statement. I was trying to point out that word choice matters. While most of what you wrote originally is valid, my family (which is Cameroonian) would not listen to anything you had to say because you used the term 'civilized.' It would immediately shut down discourse.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#94

Post by edubs25 »

layoutIfNeeded wrote: post #74
roboys wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems the "advanced cultures" tend to send their so called "civilized" companies into these regions and they historically have acted very uncivilized (in many cases worse than the local bush-people with no formal education). Wouldn't be suprising if ebola is being spread in Congo for the same reasons that HIV was spread by the apartheid South African government. Natural resources make our so called "civilized" do som…

>HIV was spread by the apartheid South African government [citation needed]

Even if that specific example is false, there is a rich and well sourced history of African Americans (and other marginalized groups) being used in medical experimentation in the US or by US organizations.

Edit - my family (Cameroonian) almost 100% believes Ebola was either created or intentionally released by either Europe or the US as part of research or guerrilla warfare. There are no facts involved but it's a very common belief for people that grow up in the region.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#95

Post by JoeAltmaier »

swalsh wrote: post #15
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way people move about the world unchecked is irresponsible. We are more careful about cattle than humans. That said, any mechanism for checking travel will undoubtedly turn corrupt. So it comes with that cost.

That's because cattle have less civil rights than us.

Its because cattle are property?

Civil rights are all well and good. But 'everybody dies of Ebola' might take precedence.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#96

Post by mlevental »

gingabriska wrote: post #52
georgehayduke wrote: post #19

I am amazed at the bravery of the medical staff, health professionals and volunteers who are trying to contain Ebola in the DRC. Not only are they potentially exposed to the deadly disease, they have to content with violent attacks from the population they're trying to help. It sounds incredibly complex - a mix of political mistrust, lack of education and difficult terrain making containment difficult. While spreadin…

How likely is that most Nurses working there do are not able to comprehend risk in real terms?

that's gotta be one the most presumptuous questions on hn I've ever seen. DRC has been dealing with Ebola outbreaks since the 60s. How do you imagine that they would be unable to comprehend? the clear implication is that they're too dumb.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#97

Post by edubs25 »

natalyarostova wrote: post #71
roboys wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call them suspicious instead of uncivilized. Europeans have tested harmful drugs on Africans without their knowledge for more than 2 centuries (including injecting live cancer cells and spreading HIV in very recent cases). I don't think we can blame them for avoiding this treatment like the plague.

I'm empathetic to the idea that for entirely uneducated populations differentiating between legitimate treatment and experimentation is impossible, so their instinct is to avoid it. I'd still be wary of making too many excuses for their wanton attack and murder on health-care workers as mere suspicion, as that gives off an impression of racism of lower expectations, in my humble opinion. Or, I mean, even if it doesn'…

I get your point - my issue was with the long history of cultures being called 'civilized' or 'advanced'. These terms are still too commonly used and mostly out of ignorance of their origins.

Just to throw it out there - I don't live there, I'm not a citizen of their community - why does my values judgement matter? Why am I judging what is acceptable for them to do in their neighborhoods and communities?

I'm a white american, married into an Cameroonian family, spend my time 90-10 split between US and Cameroon. If Cameroon was having a crisis over 'X', I'd ask my family and our friends what they think should be done in their cities about 'X.' I might ask questions or offer critiques but at the end of the day, they are the only ones that understand their communities, can solve their problems and judge a situation. Similarly, if my city was having an issue, I might be curious what they thought or how they solved similar issues, but I wouldn't expect them to dictate solutions or make a values judgement on my community.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#98

Post by kjs3 »

phkahler wrote: post #66
i_am_nomad wrote: post #38

To those of you worried about a global outbreak: USAMRIID is closing in on a highly effective (near 100%) treatment for Ebola. So far it is 100% successful in macaques, which is a good animal model for the disease in humans. The project lead spoke to my research group - his talk about Ebola, and some of the cultural and geographic challenges in fighting it, was fascinating.

There are vaccines being tested on people in DRC right now. Is there any data coming back on those? I dont care much about macaques.

Fortunately, you aren't in the medical field, and no ones life relies on what you "care" about.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#99

Post by mieseratte »

_1qd4 wrote: post #73
mieseratte wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you elaborate on those challenges?

The doctors and medical staff are mostly white, while the people they are treating are mostly black. To the ignorant, this would appear like an attempt at a genocide or recolonization.

Is that actually the case on the ground, some type of "the doctors are actually the ones making us sick" scenario?

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#100

Post by waynecochran »

teilo wrote: post #48
waynecochran wrote: post #28

Could someone explain the graph used in the article where the y-axis is labeled as "cumulative" -- does this mean that each bin includes the sums from the previous bins? If so, then this will always be a non-decreasing graph. Ebola outbreaks are horrible, but it doesn't do any good to use stupid graphs like this to make it look worse than it is.

Yes, you have it exactly right. That graph makes it look like ebola is progressing at a logarithmic rate. It's not. It's nearly linear.

I am all for fighting something as horrible as Ebola, but you can't do this ...

    actual rate    => graph

    const rate     => linear graph
    linear rate    => quadratic graph
    quadratic rate => cubic graph
    ...
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