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Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

nature.com

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Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#41

Post by thenipper »

thenipper wrote: post #35
waynecochran wrote: post #28

Could someone explain the graph used in the article where the y-axis is labeled as "cumulative" -- does this mean that each bin includes the sums from the previous bins? If so, then this will always be a non-decreasing graph. Ebola outbreaks are horrible, but it doesn't do any good to use stupid graphs like this to make it look worse than it is.

If they're using the same data source I am at work it's because that is what the ministry of health for the DRC is releasing daily. They don't track active cases but rather cumulative cases in a health zone.

Also if you want to explore the data UN OCHA has it here: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ebola-cases-and-deaths-drc-...

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#42

Post by edubs25 »

low_roar1 wrote: post #17
coldcode wrote: post #2

It's just a question of time before it reaches the US. We were lucky with Dallas. It likely will escape the next time into the general population since many people without health insurance are unlikely seek medical care in time and when they do at the last minute, it will spread.

Ebola should actually be easier to contain in any civilized country such as the US. Quarantine measures and disposing of infected bodies properly would limit the pandemic. In Congo Kinshasa, it's just the chaos politically, there is no real government in many parts of this country, the real danger is that it is not a small country at all, 80+ millions of inhabitants, many can't be reach by the WHO because of the wars…

>Ebola should actually be easier to contain in any civilized country such as the US. Quarantine measures and disposing of infected bodies properly would limit the pandemic.

I would be careful of the use of the word 'civilized' in this context. You're implying DRC and/or other African countries are uncivilized. Which is just not true.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#43

Post by HarryHirsch »

jeffdavis wrote: post #10

Do these ebola outbreaks give the virus substantially more opportunity to evolve? Or is that not a significant risk?

They do: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5580494/

But the jury is still out on what evolutionary processes are ongoing. Is the virus adapting to its new host and consequently evolving more slowly, or is it quickly developing increased transmissibility? It's not quite clear.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#44

Post by DisposibleHero »

choult wrote: post #39
DisposibleHero wrote: post #37

It's interesting to note how we can have consensus on 2,000 individual cases being called a true crisis, but we still cannot agree ~76,000 monthly border crossing[1] is a true crisis. Perhaps it's because Ebola is deadly and it's easy to remain ignorant of the humanitarian crisis plaguing many of those 76,000 monthly refugee/asylum seekers... both before and after crossing. Perhaps it's because we all fear catching E…

> Ebola isn't going to run rampant through the US This insular, isolationist attitude is precisely what is currently eroding the United States' soft power in the world today.

Could you elaborate a bit?

The major factor in this Ebola outbreak in DRC is the civil war, which is making it very difficult to effectively treat patients. Ebola is spread through bodily fluids, which are far easier to contain and isolate in a controlled environment than in a field temporary hospital or simply a family member helping care for someone they think is just sick.

We don't have these problems here in the US at the present time. Say what you will about the US medical system and insurance, etc... but it is still a very good system that can handle a wide variety of cases and isn't hobbled by armed-conflict/civil war.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#45

Post by mieseratte »

i_am_nomad wrote: post #38

To those of you worried about a global outbreak: USAMRIID is closing in on a highly effective (near 100%) treatment for Ebola. So far it is 100% successful in macaques, which is a good animal model for the disease in humans. The project lead spoke to my research group - his talk about Ebola, and some of the cultural and geographic challenges in fighting it, was fascinating.

Could you elaborate on those challenges?

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#46

Post by emiliobumachar »

UI_at_80x24 wrote: post #21
sixQuarks wrote: post #8

The internet was supposed to create an educated society with information at your fingertips, instead we got fake news and echo chambers spreading extreme thinking We have huge groups of actively ignorant people supporting the growth of climate change, anti-vaccination, and a host of other dangerous actions. Now those fighting Ebola outbreaks are getting attacked. I hope I’m wrong, but it looks like rationality is fas…

I would really love to know if this phenomenon is limited to Britain/Canada/USA and the rest of the world wonders if we have collectively gone insane, or if each demographic region is experiencing similar paranoia.

Hi from South America. Full-blown Marxism is small but not quite tiny here.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#47

Post by cabaalis »

ctrl-j wrote: post #23
goldenchrome wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really sounds like you're reading too much news. News is fear mongering most of the time. Try taking a short break, you might be surprised how much better you feel!

Feeling better and taking care of yourself is, of course, really important. However, measles outbreaks and hate-crimes aren't going to stop because one does not pay attention to the news.

But passively reading the news and feeling like crap aren't going to stop anything either.

It seems more would be done if local news, or even just having a conversation with a friend were the primary way of obtaining information.

I would venture a guess that you're more likely to pursue a cause if it directly affects your community or someone you know and love thinks it's important, than you are just by reading something on the internet.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#48

Post by teilo »

waynecochran wrote: post #28

Could someone explain the graph used in the article where the y-axis is labeled as "cumulative" -- does this mean that each bin includes the sums from the previous bins? If so, then this will always be a non-decreasing graph. Ebola outbreaks are horrible, but it doesn't do any good to use stupid graphs like this to make it look worse than it is.

Yes, you have it exactly right. That graph makes it look like ebola is progressing at a logarithmic rate. It's not. It's nearly linear.

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#49

Post by patagonia »

i_am_nomad wrote: post #38

To those of you worried about a global outbreak: USAMRIID is closing in on a highly effective (near 100%) treatment for Ebola. So far it is 100% successful in macaques, which is a good animal model for the disease in humans. The project lead spoke to my research group - his talk about Ebola, and some of the cultural and geographic challenges in fighting it, was fascinating.

Is it effective for all current strains and future mutations of Ebola?

Re: Ebola cases pass 2k as crisis escalates

#50

Post by low_roar1 »

edubs25 wrote: post #42
low_roar1 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ebola should actually be easier to contain in any civilized country such as the US. Quarantine measures and disposing of infected bodies properly would limit the pandemic. In Congo Kinshasa, it's just the chaos politically, there is no real government in many parts of this country, the real danger is that it is not a small country at all, 80+ millions of inhabitants, many can't be reach by the WHO because of the wars…

>Ebola should actually be easier to contain in any civilized country such as the US. Quarantine measures and disposing of infected bodies properly would limit the pandemic. I would be careful of the use of the word 'civilized' in this context. You're implying DRC and/or other African countries are uncivilized. Which is just not true.

> I would be careful of the use of the word 'civilized' in this context. You're implying DRC and/or other African countries are uncivilized. Which is just not true.

No, I stand by what I said and by the following definitions of the word "civilized", and never talked about "other African countries":

> easy to manage or control; well organized or ordered:

> having an advanced or humane culture, society, etc.

Given the tragedy that has been going on for more than half a century in that part of the world, I couldn't care less about euphemisms and political correctness, they have not solved anything.

The culture absolutely needs to evolve if locals want to survive Ebola, there is absolutely no way around it, I'm not a cultural relativist. It's a matter of life and death.

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