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Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

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Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#91

Post by TekMol »

mdasen wrote: post #61
ckastner wrote: post #10

BMW reported profits of €8.7bn for the year 2017. [1] Tesla stockholders must be very, very optimistic about its future performance when they value Tesla more than an already established, immensely profitable player. [1] https://phys.org/news/2018-03-bmw-net-profit-bn-euros.html

This is a key point when considering Tesla stock. In order to justify the current price, Tesla really has to become the next Toyota. Volkswagen is an $85B auto maker and the second most valuable. Tesla is already a $60B auto maker. If Tesla becomes the next Volkswagen in 10 years, they will have gained 42% returns over 10 years or about 3.6% annual returns. Given the high risk that Tesla won't become the next Volkswa…

    If Tesla becomes the next Volkswagen in 10 years,
    they will have gained 42% returns over 10 years.
And if they become a trillion dollar company, they will have gained 1566%.

They are in AI and in Solar. Two giant waves ahead of us. AI will be bigger then the web. Solar might too. The 'Google of AI' will be way bigger then Google.

    Given the high risk that Tesla won't
    become the next Volkswagen, it seems over-priced.
The 'risk' that Tesla becomes the Google of AI or the Apple of Solar makes up for it.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#92

Post by 013a »

gamblor956 wrote: post #78
013a wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beyond the hype, I think it's feasible to believe that Tesla has a massive multi-year advantage that other car companies will be playing catchup to for a very long time. Having the global manufacturing infrastructure of someone like Ford or VAG certainly seems like an advantage, but retrofitting that infrastructure to manufacture electric vehicles isn't exactly trivial or cheap. Then consider you also need to "retrof…

Your greatly overstating Tesla's advantages. EV drivetrains aren't quite drop in replacements but they are close enough that the first modern commercial EVs... including Tesla...were simply converted ICE vehicles. Also, Tesla doesn't make batteries, Panasonic does. Tesla just assembles them. Panasonic also sells batteries to Tesla's competition. And based on Tesla's past issues with paying vendors, if they miss even…

Of course the first ones were converted ICE vehicles. I could take a lawnmover and make it electric, that doesn't mean it would feasibly compete with a true designed-from-scratch electric lawnmower.

Those first EVs designed like that sucked. Seriously. Horrible range. Bad part fit. The roadster in a Lotus body was a fast car with decent range, but it also weighed almost nothing, had two seats, and no storage capacity. Come on, you're smarter than to think that's a good argument.

Look at Audi and the e-tron. They're advertising "200+ miles of range", but the only real road test we've heard about so far had it below that, at closer to 175. Meanwhile, the Model X is getting up to 300. And, by the way, before you say it: Yes, the price on both of these is about the same, at the $80k mark.

Consider the Bolt. It's got a range of ~240mi. For roughly the same price (~$40k), a Model 3 will do 310, and it will do those miles with substantially better performance and AWD (and also not look like a squished minivan, beside the point).

Who else is there? The Leaf? Ford Focus Electric? BMW i3? Hilarious. I'm tired of this argument that "the traditional manufacturers will catch up." It's the same argument we were making 4 years ago, 2 years ago, 6 months ago, nothing has changed. They haven't caught up. It's seemingly increasingly likely that the 2021 model year cars might compete with what Tesla is putting out today, in 2018. What will Tesla have by then? Who's to say.

These companies aren't doomed; the car market is vastly large enough to have many many people competing. But Tesla is in a position today to be #1 for a very long time. Their valuation will level off to be more realistic as their revenue catches up with the hype.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#93

Post by hcg »

leesec wrote: post #42
DanCarvajal wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stockholders just believe the no one else will ever be able to make an electric car.

The fact that it's electric is not even close to the only advantage that Tesla's cars have over ICE cars. Tesla turned the car into a software problem, and I would argue they have demonstrated they are WAY WAY ahead of the major OEM's at software and in the infrastructure supporting it. Not to mention extremely sleek and well loved design, autopilot, etc. To just make a Camry electric won't be enough ( though it defi…

> Tesla turned the car into a software problem

No, they convinced fanboys that they turned it into a software problem. The reality is they are no different than any other auto manufacturer. Being in Silicon Valley doesn't change that.

An electric Camry would sell so much more than the model 3.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#94

Post by hcg »

LeonM wrote: post #33
cache_miss wrote: post #16

As a former BMW fanboy, here's my take: 1) Over the past decade, BMW has snuffed the enthusiast/semi-enthusiast crowd to cater to mainstream luxury buyers. 2) Anecdotally, I've noticed that the Tesla buyers of today were the BMW/Audi buyers of yesterday. Who's still interested in new BMWs?

> Who's still interested in new BMWs? This. Exactly this. I've overheard potential buyers (not just at BMW, but all car dealerships) asking questions like: - Can I get this car in an all-electric version? > No - Can I get this car with AWD (dual motor) > No - Can I get this car with autopilot > No - Will this car receive updates over the air? > No - Does the base model come with 300+ HP? > No - Can I control this car…

They should really just have anyone who asks if they can control the car using an app tossed out.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#95

Post by leesec »

hcg wrote: post #93
leesec wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that it's electric is not even close to the only advantage that Tesla's cars have over ICE cars. Tesla turned the car into a software problem, and I would argue they have demonstrated they are WAY WAY ahead of the major OEM's at software and in the infrastructure supporting it. Not to mention extremely sleek and well loved design, autopilot, etc. To just make a Camry electric won't be enough ( though it defi…

> Tesla turned the car into a software problem No, they convinced fanboys that they turned it into a software problem. The reality is they are no different than any other auto manufacturer. Being in Silicon Valley doesn't change that. An electric Camry would sell so much more than the model 3.

What are you talking about? They have turned it into a software problem. Name another company where you can make meaningful over the air software updates that affect more than the dashboard?

Also while I am a Tesla fanboy, I work in automotive technology and interface with many of the major car companies daily, so I'm not just getting this from articles.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#96

Post by MuffinFlavored »

_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #70
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> iPhones have eclipsed cars as a status symbol among young people uhh... People use their iPhone to go on Instagram and like photos of people with $300k cars. I pinky promise.

Let me google that for you: https://www.google.com/search?q=cars+no+longer+status+symbol https://www.google.com/search?q=iphones%20have%20cars%20stat...

You are literally talking to somebody born in the 90s that 1,000% sees cars as a status symbol, and all of my friends do too.

If we see a modern Rolls Royce, Lamborghini, Ferrari, or McLaren, we all pay mental respect to the owner/driver because we know what depreciation + upkeep cost for that driver.

A $15/hr call center rep leasing a $27/mo $699 iPhone for 18 months is so far from the scale of $300k supercar that it makes me physically angry to have to write back to this.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#97

Post by hcg »

leesec wrote: post #95
hcg wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla turned the car into a software problem No, they convinced fanboys that they turned it into a software problem. The reality is they are no different than any other auto manufacturer. Being in Silicon Valley doesn't change that. An electric Camry would sell so much more than the model 3.

What are you talking about? They have turned it into a software problem. Name another company where you can make meaningful over the air software updates that affect more than the dashboard? Also while I am a Tesla fanboy, I work in automotive technology and interface with many of the major car companies daily, so I'm not just getting this from articles.

If the airbags have a problem which causes them to hurt shrapnel into peoples faces you can't fix that with a software update.

and why is being able to push updates to heavy machinery that we routinely have moving at speeds of 60+ MPH a good thing?

If you can fix the brakes via software update you can break them too.

I'm fine with it if someone going to prison when a software update kills people.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#98

Post by leesec »

hcg wrote: post #97
leesec wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? They have turned it into a software problem. Name another company where you can make meaningful over the air software updates that affect more than the dashboard? Also while I am a Tesla fanboy, I work in automotive technology and interface with many of the major car companies daily, so I'm not just getting this from articles.

If the airbags have a problem which causes them to hurt shrapnel into peoples faces you can't fix that with a software update. and why is being able to push updates to heavy machinery that we routinely have moving at speeds of 60+ MPH a good thing? If you can fix the brakes via software update you can break them too. I'm fine with it if someone going to prison when a software update kills people.

The alternative is having to take your vehicle in to get the brakes fixed.

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#99

Post by [deleted] »

mdasen wrote: post #32
codeulike wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery packs for EVs are expensive and heavy. And more complicated than people realise. They're not just big batteries. Making an electric car with decent range at an affordable price* is not easy at all. Tesla is closer than anyone else. * edit: an affordable price that isn't loss-making, I should say

I can go to a dealer today and grab a Chevy Bolt for under $32k with no haggling with 238 mile range. Hyundai hasn't come out with US pricing for their Kona EV yet, but in Norway they're selling it for the equivalent of $40k with 258 mile range. It certainly isn't trivial and Tesla has invested a good bit in EV technology, but it looks like rivals aren't that far behind.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips

#100

Post by gamblor956 »

013a wrote: post #92
gamblor956 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your greatly overstating Tesla's advantages. EV drivetrains aren't quite drop in replacements but they are close enough that the first modern commercial EVs... including Tesla...were simply converted ICE vehicles. Also, Tesla doesn't make batteries, Panasonic does. Tesla just assembles them. Panasonic also sells batteries to Tesla's competition. And based on Tesla's past issues with paying vendors, if they miss even…

Of course the first ones were converted ICE vehicles. I could take a lawnmover and make it electric, that doesn't mean it would feasibly compete with a true designed-from-scratch electric lawnmower. Those first EVs designed like that sucked. Seriously. Horrible range. Bad part fit. The roadster in a Lotus body was a fast car with decent range, but it also weighed almost nothing, had two seats, and no storage capacity…

For roughly the same price (~$40k), a Model 3 will do 310, and it will do those miles with substantially better performance and AWD (and also not look like a squished minivan, beside the point).

Categorically false, as the Model 3s do not currently sell for that amount with that range. Cheapest model 3 is $46k, without upgrades.

Can't find anything about the electric-only etron, which hasn't been released yet. The hybrid etron only has 16 miles of pure EV range. BMW's I3 is a superior riding experience, range and acceleration aside. Even the Leaf and Focus Electric are nicer to ride in. After the novelty of "Ludicrous" mode wears off, the actual driver experience matters most to most car buyers. Considering that most people don't have a 150-mile commute, the Model 3's only advantage is for the hypothetical holiday drive. Most people would just rather have a nicer car.

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