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How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

howtobrexit.eu

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Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#91

Post by cuboidGoat »

hanoz wrote: post #60
pjc50 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom Sure, but this is somewhere in probability behind "UK destroyed by asteroid impact". > Scotland making a bid to join the EU There are persistent rumours that people on the UK side are trying to avoid having any kind of double-no-border situation that would work for NI be also applicable for Scotland. Because during the referendum all sorts of claims about the need for…

>> Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom > Sure, but this is somewhere in probability behind "UK destroyed by asteroid impact". Maybe, but Ireland also leaving the EU would be a good and not entirely unpopular solution.

>a good and not entirely unpopular solution

Where and for whom?

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#92

Post by d4rti »

Paianni wrote: post #44
Someguywhatever wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is the democratic decision to leave not an "adult" decision? To conduct the referendum and then not abide by the result would absolutely be undemocratic. The UK is already dragging it's heels on taking action WRT Brexit IMO. I think that they will drag it out so long that they say the mandate of the referendum has expired, and then re-rerun the referendum. They will rinse and repeat until they get the result they…

That article concerns the Lisbon Treaty. Ireland was already an EU member.

And indeed, Ireland’s concerns were addressed between the two referenda.

One of these was the now defunct concern around abortion.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#94

Post by tonyedgecombe »

gadders wrote: post #51
seren wrote: post #4

There should be more options, like Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom. Or Scotland making a bid to join the EU.

They'd have to join the Euro as well. I think that's pre-condition for joining the EU.

The EU is brilliant at fudging decisions like that, I'm not expecting Poland to join the Euro zone any time soon.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#95

Post by mig39 »

martythemaniak wrote: post #31

Brexit has definitely changed my mind on one thing - majority vote in a referendum is bad. Or rather, the percentage vote required should be proportional to the gravity of the question. Referendums are rare, so most votes should require well over 50%. I did not used to think this. In 2007 British Columbia had a referendum on switching to proportional representation from FPTP. The result was like 52% in favour, but th…

I think you may be confusing BC and another jurisdiction (Ontario?)

BC held a referendum in 2005 which was on Single Transferrable Vote. 57% voted in favour, but the threshold was set at 60%, with a majority needed in at least 60% of the electoral districts.

BC held a second referendum in 2009, and the vote swung in the other direction. Only 39% voted in favour of STV.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#96

Post by arountheworld »

wlll wrote: post #89
arountheworld wrote: post #83

This presentation is biased. It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. There are soft borders in the EU for example Poland - Russia, where people can roam freely. EU is just not being flexible to make a "political point", which is pathetic. They shouldn't include a provision to leave the Union in the first place.

> It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. As somoene who grew up in the UK with the IRA blowing up bits of the country, some rather close to me, I disagree. It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too. The EU is negotiating in it's best interests, as is the UK. There aren't going to be any favours traded on either sid…

If the UK doesn't put up a border then it is the EU that is causing a problem. There doesn't have to be a hard border, but EU insists that there should be.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#97

Post by cuboidGoat »

seren wrote: post #4

There should be more options, like Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom. Or Scotland making a bid to join the EU.

like Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom.

Or Arthur rising and reinstating Camelot in England's hour of need.

Or Nessie being discovered, then rampaging south to destroy London in a Gozilla inspired attack, wiping out the entirety of the Square Mile.

Or the entire human population suddenly realising that the borders were only in their heads all along and finally living together in peace and harmony.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#98

Post by d4rti »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #90
Chestofdraw wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem with the Tories not blinking is that they don't have a majority in parliament. They're currently being propped up (they have a confidence and supply arrangement) by the DUP who are very much against a sea border and would likely vote against a deal that had a sea border and doing so could bring down the government.

Ultimately there is no majority in parliament for any of the options, we are headed for either another election or a re-run of the referendum.

Or indeed in the country: the “smartest” (sleaziest) thing the leave campaign did was to refuse to actually lay out any specific kind of brexit - knowing there was no unity on the brexit side.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#99

Post by wmil »

martythemaniak wrote: post #31

Brexit has definitely changed my mind on one thing - majority vote in a referendum is bad. Or rather, the percentage vote required should be proportional to the gravity of the question. Referendums are rare, so most votes should require well over 50%. I did not used to think this. In 2007 British Columbia had a referendum on switching to proportional representation from FPTP. The result was like 52% in favour, but th…

That would have created a legitimacy problem for the EU. Brussels is hard set on pushing for "an ever closer union" and London has had a policy of ratifying new EU treaties without a referendum.

So a majority vote for Brexit that fell short of a prescribed threshold would create huge problems for future EU treaties.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#100

Post by markonen »

arountheworld wrote: post #83

This presentation is biased. It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. There are soft borders in the EU for example Poland - Russia, where people can roam freely. EU is just not being flexible to make a "political point", which is pathetic. They shouldn't include a provision to leave the Union in the first place.

I'd like to hear more about this Polish–Russian soft border.
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