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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#91
post #7
post #5

Out of curiosity, has anyone who paid the $1000 to get in line for a Model 3 actually heard back from Tesla? I've never received any communication about timelines at all.

Me neither. Also, I am trying to get my $1000 back for 2 months now since it probably would take around 2 years until I get my Model 3. They are delaying and delaying the payout, so instead of me becoming a Tesla customer I am hating them more from day to day.

Chargeback?

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#92
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Failure looks like bankruptcy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_State... If you don’t think it’s possible, then I suggest putting all of your available assets into their equity.

With a declared mission to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport", I'm not sure a bankruptcy would constitute failure at this point. The momentum Tesla's created toward electric cars may be sufficient that mass-market producers can take it from here.

Then, they should just shut down the company now, donate the remaining billions to charitable causes, and enjoy their “success”?

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#93

What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Longer range and that's it? Good thing tesla has a lot of vertical investment in batteries. The market is very competitive.

have you heard anyone say they wanted a leaf?

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most worrying is the slowing production of models S and X, coupled with what I'd call a collapse in the gross margins of those products. Why is the margin declining so drastically?

They definitely seem to have hit a plateau in terms of demand which was declining before they started to slash prices in order to move inventory. The S/X and are old now and the car market requires new models to keep sales going. That combined with the approaching launches of other high end luxury electric cars does not bode well for future S/X sales. The negative press on autopilot and failure to deliver on autopilo…

> The negative press on autopilot and failure to deliver on autopilot 2.0

Was there more than that accident with the old version? I havent heard much about this...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#95
post #4

As an engineer who has zero investment in Tesla, I truly hope they overcome this setback. Simultaneously, I know from experience that failure is a real possibility. At this point, it’s nice to have the additional transparancy into the current production bottleneck.

What would failure look like? Worst case outcome to me seems that they would just take longer to get to their goals rather than not achieve them at all. They have enough money in the bank and no unsolved technical issues - it's not black hole physics. I mean they've delivered cars already. They just are slower than expected at scaling up.

Continuing to move the deadline back by three months every quarter would constitute failure. This is a classic death march pattern. Tesla’s observables currently match this pattern. This doesn’t mean it’s in the pattern or will continue to hold, but it does increase the likelihood.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#97

If Tesla goes under what happens to long term support for their cars? Don't Tesla owners depend on a lot of Tesla services? Subsidized charging stations, sending it in for maintenance, etc.?

You might want ask Fisker Karma owners: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/hybrid-support-solutions-... I imagine the same fate would await Tesla owners. However, there enough Teslas rolling around that someone might find it profitable to pick up support. Multiple vendors still sell, and in some cases manufacture, parts for fifty year old Volkswagens, for instance.

Yeah but 50 year old Volkswagens are a lot simpler, including being almost wholly mechanical. And even today there’s a pretty robust aftermarket parts market for ICEs generally.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#98
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Much better value, larger size, better fuel economy, more conventional, more power, more range, and superchargers. Cost per mile of range: $200 for the 2018 leaf, 132 for the Model 3. 147 hp vs 258 hp, 10" of extra length and 6" of extra width, over twice the range at less than half the capacity. The Tesla is way superior to any other electric…

How about compared to the Bolt, though? The Bolt seems dramatically more competitive than the Leaf. 200hp, comparable range, and cheaper than the model 3. I think people getting fed up with the wait and switching to Bolts en-masse is a possible scenario. Imagine if Chevy made an ad targeting exactly that scenario.... (You can thank me later Chevy ad execs)

Maybe a matter of taste but I think the Model 3 looks much cooler than the Bolt:

Bolt: http://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/english...

Model 3: https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/tesla-model-3-s...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#99
post #48

"cuts production" I don't follow official statements closely but it sounds like they are using this retooling as an excuse for low demand for the S and X. This way they get to have their cake and eat it too: low S/X numbers justified and re-energized promises for increased 3 production.

Musk said on the call that they will produce fewer cars but that they expect increased deliveries, with the difference being covered from their existing inventory.

Well, if they have all that existing inventory just sitting around, surely it implies they've built more cars than they've been able to sell, no?

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#100

I can't help but feel that price is an inevitable factor here. Tesla Model S and Model X are expensive! Now that the novelty is wearing off and more EVs are hitting the road from other manufacturers, it strikes me that they just won't remain competitive models. I expect the Model 3 to go some way towards helping this by being much more affordable, but with delayed production on those and an interior design that won't…

I disagree completely. Tesla has 400k people who put down a grand to 'reserve a spot in line' for a Model 3. The issue is production. Tesla fired off hundreds of workers a month ago, right as they were ramping up Model 3 production. Elon seems an awesome person in terms of what he's doing at a macro level, but he sounds like a horrendous person to work for.

How many of that 400,000 are speculators trying to make a quick buck? Can go wrong for them, see the number of delivery mileage Focus RSs that are selling second hand for less than Ford want for a new one.
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