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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#61

Post by colordrops »

dogruck wrote: post #4

As an engineer who has zero investment in Tesla, I truly hope they overcome this setback. Simultaneously, I know from experience that failure is a real possibility. At this point, it’s nice to have the additional transparancy into the current production bottleneck.

What would failure look like? Worst case outcome to me seems that they would just take longer to get to their goals rather than not achieve them at all. They have enough money in the bank and no unsolved technical issues - it's not black hole physics. I mean they've delivered cars already. They just are slower than expected at scaling up.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#63

Post by vkou »

sixQuarks wrote: post #54
pwinnski wrote: post #2

The first two zones of a four-zone process to produce battery packs are being completely reworked, and this is something they only found out about after they were already failing to deliver on promised production goals? I've mis-estimated a lot of things in my career, so I'm trying to be sympathetic, but it seems like someone with production line experience should have been able to test individual parts of the produc…

As much as I'm a fan of Elon, the Model 3 production always had me worried when they kept having to replace senior production and battery executives in the run up. I'm still very bullish on Tesla long-term, but I think the Model 3 will be a fiasco unless some sort of miracle happens, and we haven't even gotten into initial quality problems that may arise once enough units are in customer hands.

Initial quality problems may not arise. They will definitely arise. It's a brand-new model, with brand-new (To TESLA) manufacturing processes - there will always be problems in this situation.

What they should hope for is for these problems to arise sooner, rather then later - lessening the cost of recalls.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#64

Post by pwinnski »

hwillis wrote: post #51
jeffdavis wrote: post #35

What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Longer range and that's it? Good thing tesla has a lot of vertical investment in batteries. The market is very competitive.

> What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Much better value, larger size, better fuel economy, more conventional, more power, more range, and superchargers. Cost per mile of range: $200 for the 2018 leaf, 132 for the Model 3. 147 hp vs 258 hp, 10" of extra length and 6" of extra width, over twice the range at less than half the capacity. The Tesla is way superior to any other electric…

> The Tesla is way superior to any other electric car on the road.

Except that it mostly isn't on the road at all!

Cost per mile of range is a nice way of getting lower numbers for the Tesla, but it's more out of pocket.

The model 3 has a longer range, is faster, and is overall much sexier, but it costs for model 3 users to use those superchargers, and you can get a Leaf or Bolt today.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#65

Post by williamscales »

btian wrote: post #18
williamscales wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"key elements" of the battery module assembly had to be taken over and redesigned, Musk says. Tesla seems to be taking the opposite approach to Apple here. In my observation, Apple drives its suppliers extremely hard to achieve the quality it requires. Tesla, on the other hand, is too eager to bring any sundry part in house (e.g. car seats). Apple's approach appears to work in that it pushes suppliers to do what's ne…

Then how do you explain Apple making their own SoC?

Well, I guess it's apparent now that it fell outside of my immediate observation. I would be curious what the risk calculus on that decision was. I think it still fits in to the same narrative that I was building though: Tesla seems like they want to bring everything in house while Apple has only brought one piece, the jewel of the system, in house.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#66

Post by Avshalom »

B1FF_PSUVM wrote: post #13
nik736 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Me neither. Also, I am trying to get my $1000 back for 2 months now since it probably would take around 2 years until I get my Model 3. They are delaying and delaying the payout, so instead of me becoming a Tesla customer I am hating them more from day to day.

Weird, aren't Tesla selling any more places in that waiting list for the same price? A place better than last would even be worth more, no?

If what you want is a Tesla 3: yes, probably. If what you want is a(n electric) car: no.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#68

Post by selectodude »

colordrops wrote: post #61
dogruck wrote: post #4

As an engineer who has zero investment in Tesla, I truly hope they overcome this setback. Simultaneously, I know from experience that failure is a real possibility. At this point, it’s nice to have the additional transparancy into the current production bottleneck.

What would failure look like? Worst case outcome to me seems that they would just take longer to get to their goals rather than not achieve them at all. They have enough money in the bank and no unsolved technical issues - it's not black hole physics. I mean they've delivered cars already. They just are slower than expected at scaling up.

Their burn rate is incredible. If they run out of money and nobody is there to give them more, they file for bankruptcy.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#70

Post by hkmurakami »

gcheong wrote: post #57
ericabiz wrote: post #28

SeekingAlpha predicted this a few weeks ago: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-mon... "Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521. But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum. It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidenc…

What does it mean to "outsell" something when that something is backordered into the foreseable future? Personally I will wait until Tesla goes bankrupt before I buy a bolt but I'm still betting that, despite Tesla's lack of ability to predict their own production capability timeline (uh hello, pretty much every tech company that ever existed), that I won't have to.

Actual deliveries and full payment.
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