You can complain about Tesla missing a deadline by a year but you need to also consider them pulling the rest of the industry forward by 10 years when they do it
Tesla’s New Car Smell
91–100 of 205 posts
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#92People that are caught up on this "miss" obviously do not follow the guidance very closely. On the last conference call they repeatedly downplayed the importance of the Q3 delivery guidance and repeatedly stated it would be difficult to predict and that there was a high degree of uncertainty. They repeated this ad nauseam.
Here is a sample: >So, I would simply urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter or the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of when a quarter ends.
That is why there has been little stock movement despite this miss. Run rate at the end of Q4 is a different story. That is very important guidance.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094115-tesla-tsla-q2-2017-...
Also, another indication that this guy know anything about Tesla's goals or guidane... Tesla has repeatedly stated they are not going to increase Model S/X production beyond 25k per quarter. They think that's close to the total addressable market and it's costly to expand production beyond that.
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#93The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…
I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.
Tesla Autopilot 2 failed to impress me for my specific use case. I have elderly parents, and city-street capable Autopilot would have made a sale at the test drive; the constant cognitive strain of defensively driving is very stressful for them though they put up with it for now, and such a feature would immensely add to their quality of life.
When I took the Tesla test drive in a Model X with my parents, the rep took pains to educate us about the limitations of Autopilot. Lane following in the highway, below 50 mph around curves, and doesn't recognize traffic lights in the highway. Can't avoid collisions below 7 mph. Can't lane follow in city streets. Can't self-drive on main city thoroughfares. I'm probably missing the message, but I don't see how this is that much more revolutionary than a Honda Sensing suite that I could purchase in a 2018 Odyssey [1]. For all the Reality Distortion Field is putting out from Tesla, I was expecting more.
As it was, I can see value if I sit in rush hour traffic on the highway for an hour or more each day, each way. But unfortunately, that is not my use case. And I can get the same tech on other more mature platforms to address the bulk of the value for that use case.
A lot is riding on Tesla's promise to bring full autonomy In The Future. I fail to see how they are besting Waymo at productizing full autonomy or even taking the next incremental steps towards that goal. If I wasn't in software and following what Waymo et al were doing to move towards full autonomy, then I would probably be dazzled, but I'm struggling to figure out how Tesla's driver assistive tech is getting us to full autonomy faster than Waymo.
I'm on the Model 3 waiting list, but that test drive has me seriously re-considering a 2018 Honda Odyssey instead. I'd welcome feedback on what I missed.
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes many other's have autopilot-like tech. BMW's system on the 7-series and newer 5-series is about as good as Tesla's AP1 and better than AP2. AP2 is still far behind the curve.
I compared Tesla Model 3 to Bolt and Leaf. 7-series and 5-series are simply too expensive. If BMW can get it in the 3-series at a Tesla Model 3 price, things will get interesting.
Even VW Golf has (as options) quite a bit of these things. obstacles radar(adaptive cruise control/city safety), blind spot and lane departure warning, self parking...
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know. It seems more likely to me their "goal" (pun intended for those readers of "The Goal") is the TPS but their particular supply chain may not currently allow for it.
> I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know. American carmakers didn't get it for decades. Even when they thought they did, they performed Lean rituals without real understanding. This was despite Toyota trying vigorously to teach them.
History shows that knowledge transfer is really, really hard. Humans are just not very good at it :(
(A similar story is told of the spread of the use of Feynman diagrams in physics - I’ve read that their spread was far slower than you’d expect given their utility: For whatever reason it wasn’t enough to be told that they were an incredibly useful tool by people you trusted - it was only when non users actually worked together on problems with Feynman diagram users, or were taught by Feynman diagram users directly that their use actually spread. Both of these transfer methods required physical proximity which restricted the use of Feynman diagrams to a small number of labs for a surprisingly long time.)
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#96Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…
> You cannot inspect your way to quality. I have to emphasize the sentence you ended your comment with. Anybody who has worked in volume production has heard this phrase too many times to count. People who never learned the difference between QC and QA never seem to understand this phrase either. Doesn't mean they are dumb, but does mean they don't even understand the scope of what they don't know. Another common mis…
> People who never learned the difference between QC and QA never seem to understand this phrase either.
Can you please explain the difference?
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#97> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a killjoy, I was calling their choice into question. Well, it'…
The difference is that Honda doesn't make interesting cars. People are ready to cut Tesla some slack because they are truly innovating.
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#98> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…
Toyota’s recalls are expensive, as they involve a network of dealers who need to be paid for providing the repair and maintenance. Tesla’s vertical integration of service centers has an interesting side effect - recalls and repairs are pretty cheap, as the costs of service centers and loaner vehicles they give out are fixed and have been borne already. I wonder if that makes the company more dismissive of potential i…
I can't be the only person that would rather have the manufacturer of my car - for most of us the second most expensive thing we own after a house - have their incentives be to minisie the chance of shipping defects.
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You cannot inspect your way to quality. I have to emphasize the sentence you ended your comment with. Anybody who has worked in volume production has heard this phrase too many times to count. People who never learned the difference between QC and QA never seem to understand this phrase either. Doesn't mean they are dumb, but does mean they don't even understand the scope of what they don't know. Another common mis…
> People who never learned the difference between QC and QA never seem to understand this phrase either. Can you please explain the difference?
I am not they, but QA is process oriented and QC is product oriented. How you do it vs. what the results are.
Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell
#100> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a killjoy, I was calling their choice into question. Well, it'…
The difference is that Honda doesn't make interesting cars. People are ready to cut Tesla some slack because they are truly innovating.
Because they put a battery in a car?