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China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

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Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#91

Post by CamperBob2 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #79
jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival. Lest people…

> They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term. I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

Yes, and that's worked out great for the Kims for almost 70 years now. We haven't exactly given them an incentive to change or reform.

It's impossible to exaggerate how badly we botched our handling of Libya in particular. After watching what happened to Gaddafi, there was literally no other option for Kim besides an all-out push to develop nuclear arms.

Iran, not being a country populated exclusively by idiots, will be doing the same.

The US simply cannot be trusted regardless of what party is at the helm, and that's a huge problem for us as well as anyone we're doing international business with.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#92

Post by vadman »

sparkzilla wrote: post #55
vadman wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2... This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

Expect the nukes to fall when the north wind doth blow

To carry the fallout onto South Korea, and the US militry stationed there? Brilliant!

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#93

Post by cmdkeen »

bonzini wrote: post #83
smsm42 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps China wants to annex NK. No they don't. Why would they want this radioactive toxic dumpster fire as their full responsibility? They're much better it being within their sphere of influence - so that anybody who wants anything done has to deal with China and make suitable offers to get things done - while having pretty much zero responsibility for the welfare of the people and not being subject of criticism…

China has plenty of rural areas anyway, and NK population is 2% of Chinese population. China is pretty much the only country that can pour enough money into NK to bring it out of poverty, and a border with an important US Ally (South Korea) would be priceless. I don't think that's what they want to do, but it would actually make sense.

China has historically tolerated NK because it doesn't want to share a border with a US ally. China intervened in the Korean War precisely because the UN forces came too far north, in spite of China warning them to stay clear.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#94

Post by no1youknowz »

adanto6840 wrote: post #19
bgun wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.

This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask as I'm genuinely curious and don't know. What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there a c…

I was watching a portion of Michael Malice with Joe Rogan[0]. Michael wrote "Dear Reader: The Unauthorized Autobiography of Kim Jong Il". He actually mentions the upper class in NK.

It's over 2 and a half hours long, but I like Rogan's interviews they go by pretty fast.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B_idqiEoUE

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#95

Post by smsm42 »

jcranmer wrote: post #89
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. North Korea is rational. They have a very good idea of how far they can annoy everyone else before it starts to hurt them, and they have proven very adept at being able to extract concessions from the rest of the world. > The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. The only way the problem could be solved diplomatically is a grand bargain between China and the U…

> They have a very good idea of how far they can annoy everyone else before it starts to hurt them,

I wouldn't overestimate their knowledge. Just as Saddam Hussein thought he'd be allowed to annex Kuwait and generally behave like an ass and nobody would dare to lift a finger, Kim is probably under the same impression. People think that various totalitarian regimes feed their citizens propaganda, but deep inside the inner party circle they have rational (even if evil) people that operate on correct information and capable of making correct (even if extremely self-serving) decisions.

The reality is usually different. The inner circle may have access to more information, but they are also largely ignorant about how politics works in the Western countries. They are as prone to biases and misjudgment as any human, and the absence of robust feedback circles usually present in open society amplifies their errors of judgement. And of course, somebody can only be told he is a unerring genius and supreme being for so long before he himself starts believing it, and once that happens, huge errors of judgment are inevitable.

Thus, what they expect the West to do may be completely different from what the West would actually do.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#96

Post by smsm42 »

bonzini wrote: post #83
smsm42 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps China wants to annex NK. No they don't. Why would they want this radioactive toxic dumpster fire as their full responsibility? They're much better it being within their sphere of influence - so that anybody who wants anything done has to deal with China and make suitable offers to get things done - while having pretty much zero responsibility for the welfare of the people and not being subject of criticism…

China has plenty of rural areas anyway, and NK population is 2% of Chinese population. China is pretty much the only country that can pour enough money into NK to bring it out of poverty, and a border with an important US Ally (South Korea) would be priceless. I don't think that's what they want to do, but it would actually make sense.

I'm not saying they couldn't do it - unlike South Korea, China doesn't care too much for the welfare of the population beyond the basic subsistence level, and has enough resources to avoid outright starvation in NK if they took over. I am saying there's no reason for them to take over, because they now already have all the benefits of control with none of responsibilities of it. It would be literally stupid for them to do it unless they face the imminent danger of either losing control (thus Korean War) or having a hot and possible nuclear war on their borders (thus agreeing to put the leash on Kim, for a suitable price of course).

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#97

Post by equalunique »

adanto6840 wrote: post #19
bgun wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.

This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask as I'm genuinely curious and don't know. What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there a c…

>What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK?

Suki Kim's “Without You, There Is No Us” (2014) offers a perspective from the time she spent there.

>What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated

They are mostly isolated to Pyongyang where they live bureaucratic lifestyles.

>what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes

Not much. They basically are confined to the city. The make a comfortable living and spend their whole lives trying to please KJU.

>how will this impact that?

If the economic impact is extensive, then it would inhibit their ability to support the regime, and that would hurt morale all around Pyongyang.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#98

Post by mythrwy »

gumby wrote: post #53
thevardanian wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late. What else is their develop…

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor. I don't see why you say this. I wouldn't say they are especially competent, but they seem to have stayed in existence and played off various larger rivals successfully for 70 odd years.

They've stayed in existence with the implicit support of China and periodic tribute in the form of food and fuel from the west.

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#99

Post by smallnamespace »

thevardanian wrote: post #59
smallnamespace wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's silly. NK is a complete basket case, with a population that has been brainwashed by 70+ years of misrule, a development level probably below China in 1949, and they have a different language and culture. Right now, China gets the benefit of a buffer state without the downside of fixing generations of problems. They would take the blame for every problem. Did you know that the goal of reunification is explicitl…

The issue of reunification in Korea still has significant support. Especially among the older generation, but even if we include the younger generation the support for reunification still exceed 60%. I mean what do you want to do with NK? Leave it be? Laissez faire? Let it develop nukes as a "deterrent"? Let it be aggressive? This will not end will for the region if something isn't done, and SK is reminded that on a…

> I mean what do you want to do with NK?

The problem is that nobody knows, and nobody wants to be responsible for figuring it out, implementing it, and paying all the costs. We're all hoping somebody else will fix the problem for us.

The US blames China. China predictably blames the US. South Korea vacillates between being hot and cold towards its Northern brother, yet neither approach has solved the issue. Meanwhile, Russia is all too happy to no longer be associated with the problem in the eyes of the global public, despite its own key role in getting us into the current mess.

You're right that reunification still has majority support in SK, but will that be true in 20 years' time once a unified Korea can no longer remembered by anyone still living?

Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days

#100

Post by jsgo »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #80
irrational wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So by that definition it seems that the USA would not be considered a rational actor since the head of the nation and the majority in congress are pretty much the opposite of predictable and willing to uphold their word.

Perhaps true, but also completely off topic. It makes you look like you're just looking for an excuse to score points, rather than contributing to the conversation we're having.

I think it is a fair point within the context. It links up with the "NK developing nukes for survival" but it also plays out in the sense that an outside nation of any sort, including our allies, can never be certain that 4 years from now a deal we made will continue to be honored. Iran, Paris agreement, various trade agreements, NATO, etc. have all been brought into questioning as of late. It is impossible for an ally or other country to 100% predict how a vetted agreement will play out once a new administration comes into office. Unfortunate side effect of our system, but I don't think it is a bad system.
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