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Apparently you won't get much for it, then. I'm kind of in the same boat, but I'd really like to get an electric model that's been produced for a few years, which means there won't be much on the used market.
You missed his point. He will wear out his car until it has no value then gladly buy another used car at a great price.
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> Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. >because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech". ?
I mean laws will ban the sale of new ICE cars, which by then will be the "old tech". So when you can't even buy one new, why would someone want a used one? (unless, like I said, it's a pleasure driver or some exotic, which is a tiny fraction of all cars sold) Think of all the things that have been replaced and superseded in history - once the new thing exists, the old one drops in price dramatically.
For the same exact reasons many people today choose to buy used gas cars over new electric cars.
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Yes, the laws only apply to new vehicles. It's similar to when Color TVs were invented. What happened to the re-sale value of all the B&W TVs that were already out there? They plummeted, because they had been superseded. This scenario will be even more aggressive, because laws will ban the sale of the "old tech".
That's not really comparable at all. A color tv is a fundamentally more distinct product as compared to a b&w tv than a ICE cars is compared to an electric. Especially for the foreseeable future.
With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…
Aren't all those laws focused on new cars? I can't imagine the backlash a government would receive by zeroing out the value of most people's most expensive possession.
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There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.
I wonder if we can "mine" all of the old copper wires (telephones, etc)?
Scrap yards in my state (and I'm sure many others) are required to take identification from anyone that sells them metal.
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A friend who is a materials engineer told me that there aren't enough rare-Earth metals in the world to supply the demand for magnets to replace all of the current petrol based cars with electric cars. No sources unfortunately, but this thing might not scale.
There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.
Also, electric motors can use aluminum wiring, and many induction motors have aluminum rotors since they can be cast at a lower temperature than copper.
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Production of the Chevrolet Bolt has stopped due to lack of demand and bulging inventory, part of the overall problem discussed on this thread http://fortune.com/2017/07/17/gm-shutdown-chevy-bolt-supply/
All other articles and GM comments say that the extended summer shutdown is to increase Bolt supply, not because there is too much supply already. The Bolt outsold both of Tesla's vehicles last month. The Sonic has weak sales, so during the shutdown they're reconfiguring the plant to make 1 Bolt for every 1 Sonic, where it was 1:2 before.
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That's part of the reason why practically all electric cars currently in production use induction motors, which only require copper. Yes, it would require more rare earths than are currently economically feasible to mine if we replaced every fossil fuel engine with a permanent magnet electric motor of equal power. The only real difference between the two is the design difficulty of the drive circuitry for the VFD to…
I think it's likely some other resource might be a constraint in that tight a timeline though. Either something for the cars themselves, or the infrastructure for charging them.
Almost all car charging is done at night, when grid load is far lower. Charging will not be a problem, and there is no material shortage likely in the near future.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's part of the reason why practically all electric cars currently in production use induction motors, which only require copper. Yes, it would require more rare earths than are currently economically feasible to mine if we replaced every fossil fuel engine with a permanent magnet electric motor of equal power. The only real difference between the two is the design difficulty of the drive circuitry for the VFD to…
I think it's likely some other resource might be a constraint in that tight a timeline though. Either something for the cars themselves, or the infrastructure for charging them.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a real question as to whether we'll have enough copper, too.
I wonder if we can "mine" all of the old copper wires (telephones, etc)?