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Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

gizmodo.co.uk

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Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#91

Post by jacquesm »

pknight wrote: post #79
jacquesm wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you are correct, or at least, the UK supreme court thinks that you are not correct: https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n...

You're misrepresenting the realities of A50 throughout this thread Jacques. The court case in question operated under the premise of the Government's position that A50 is irrevocable. Whether it is or not was not judged, it was just presumed to be irrevocable for the purpose of the case. That's a very important distinction. A50 is revocable unless a court says it is not and even if questioned, the courts would more t…

Time will tell. The situation in the UK has worsened rather than improved over the past 9 months, if you feel that the 'realities' of article 50 are that you can submit and withdraw it willy-nilly than that goes against what the rest of EU media and politicians are saying. There are some new developments but those are fairly tenuous at this stage, maybe they will solidify in a way that would give the UK an 'out' but for now it looks like the UK will in fact use such an out to bolster their currently non-existing negotiation position (and I don't blame them).

The UK is a very divided place, as much as I don't like brexit (I think it is an exceptionally stupid move) I don't see the UK healing itself in time for this to be averted and the unanimous condition attached to any kind of revocation of Article 50 leaves very little room for hope.

May is on the record as saying that if there is no 'good deal' then there will be 'no deal', which is absolutely terrible for the UK, it's a game of continental chicken which will have only losers.

If the UK attempts to withdraw before negotations start then I give that some chance but if they first try to go through two years of negotiations and then attempt to withdraw as the deadline looms chances are very slim that they would be allowed to remain without serious concessions.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#92

Post by jacquesm »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #87
jacquesm wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's contrary to this (but more recent, in fact, it isn't law right now): https://www.businessinsider.nl/uk-supreme-court-article-50-n... And I note that it requires unanimous agreement between all the other member states, which is a very rare thing. So a very thin maybe.

Same publication, today: http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-5...

Well, here's to hoping. But that's very thin ice. Maybe it will grow a bit thicker in the next two years.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#93

Post by jerf »

CaptainZapp wrote: post #82
jerf wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Had any other solutions been made available, Brexit probably wouldn't be happening. The EU chose to not make solutions available and stuck it into a "take it or leave it" basket. It seems to me to be a recurring pattern with over-centralized government that they start using more and more of their power this way; you can see it in the US now too, for instance in the way the Trump administration is continuing to saber…

The EU chose to not make solutions available and stuck it into a "take it or leave it" basket. What do you suggest the EU should have done? Free movement is one of the cornerstones of the EU and pretty much not up for negootiation. This includes associated countries like Norway or Switzerland. So I'm really curious: What, do you suggest, should the EU have offered?

"pretty much not up for negootiation."

You basically reiterate my point, that it is "take it all or leave it".

The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it".

Or, alternatively, be ready to deal with "leave it" as an option. Which, I'd observe, the EU legally was, as this is a legal option that has always existed and is now occurring with no bloodshed, which as these things go is still a well-above-average accomplishment. But psychologically the EU was clearly not ready for this; the expectation is still clearly that, like the United States, members may join but not leave.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#94

Post by andrewla »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #44
blowski wrote: post #4

A few anecdotes doesn't count as evidence. I voted for Remain, and hope very much that the Brexit process collapses and we end up staying in the EU. But I also don't want to spend the next 2 years being drip-fed poor quality articles about how we're going to hell in a handbasket.

If you want data not anecdotes, then it's early days but here you go: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/18/nhs-eu-nurse...

Thanks for that link, in between all the rhetoric it's hard to get a clear signal. Do you happen to have any idea where that data comes from? It seems a little suspicious only because the dates chosen for comparisons seems a little cherry-picked, so it's hard to tell if the changes are routine or exceptional.

> Only 96 nurses joined the NHS from other European nations in December 2016 – a drop from 1,304 in July, the month after the referendum.

Comparing December to July? Maybe it's semi-annual data? What's the normal level of variance?

> 2,700 EU nurses left the health service in 2016, compared to 1,600 EU nurses in 2014 – a 68% increase.

Comparing 2016 to 2014? What happened to 2015, or 2013?

The article notes that this is from "freedom of information responses compiled by the Liberal Democrats from 80 of the 136 NHS acute trusts in England", but I can't seem to find a direct source; some things talk about the "Centre for Workforce Intelligence", but I can't get anything specific from there, and other things reference the "Nursing and Midwifery Council", which appears to be a voluntary registration system, but as far as I can tell does not generally publish statistics.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#95

Post by titraprutr »

fpp wrote: post #90

The Brexit is just one of key changes hitting the UK tech working / start-up / corporate environments in the moment. Brexit, IP Act, changes to IR35 (in / out), the £ drop, announcements of major city firms to reduce staff by 30%+, slowing global economies (real not what statistics are telling), UK service price increases of 10% - 20% as seen in the last months or to come with e.g. electricity, IT and communication s…

> In more than 15 years I have never seen these markets being as bad as they are in the moment

Care to elaborate a bit on this? I'm genuinely interested.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#96

Post by [deleted] »

jerf wrote: post #93
CaptainZapp wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU chose to not make solutions available and stuck it into a "take it or leave it" basket. What do you suggest the EU should have done? Free movement is one of the cornerstones of the EU and pretty much not up for negootiation. This includes associated countries like Norway or Switzerland. So I'm really curious: What, do you suggest, should the EU have offered?

"pretty much not up for negootiation." You basically reiterate my point, that it is "take it all or leave it". The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it". Or, alternatively, be ready to deal with "leave it" as an option. Which, I'd observe, the EU legally was, as this is a legal option that has always existed and is now…

[deleted]

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#97

Post by kuschku »

jerf wrote: post #93
CaptainZapp wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU chose to not make solutions available and stuck it into a "take it or leave it" basket. What do you suggest the EU should have done? Free movement is one of the cornerstones of the EU and pretty much not up for negootiation. This includes associated countries like Norway or Switzerland. So I'm really curious: What, do you suggest, should the EU have offered?

"pretty much not up for negootiation." You basically reiterate my point, that it is "take it all or leave it". The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it". Or, alternatively, be ready to deal with "leave it" as an option. Which, I'd observe, the EU legally was, as this is a legal option that has always existed and is now…

> The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it".

That’s like saying we should put the right to live up for negotiation, as humans don’t need to live anyway.

If you allow free trade without free movement, companies can move all jobs to another country, and your country might end up with no jobs, and all people poor and fucked.

The only way to guarantee fairness in trade is if your citizen can move to wherever the jobs are, too.

This is a constitutional cornerstone of the EU.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#98

Post by jerf »

kuschku wrote: post #97
jerf wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"pretty much not up for negootiation." You basically reiterate my point, that it is "take it all or leave it". The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it". Or, alternatively, be ready to deal with "leave it" as an option. Which, I'd observe, the EU legally was, as this is a legal option that has always existed and is now…

> The first step to a solution is obvious right from your phrasing: Put it up for a negotiation. Stop viewing this as "take it all or leave it". That’s like saying we should put the right to live up for negotiation, as humans don’t need to live anyway. If you allow free trade without free movement, companies can move all jobs to another country, and your country might end up with no jobs, and all people poor and fuck…

Then the EU apparently wrote into its constitutional cornerstone something that was not possible to manifest in the real world, and as a result it is breaking up, at least a little now and possibly still more in the future. Again, at least it is doing so without bloodshed.

The EU has no ontological right to exist. It is not an immutable fact of the universe. It is not rationally or logically valid to reason from "The EU requires this attribute for it to exist as I envision it" to "This attribute must be attainable at a reasonable price." or any variant on that.

I take a historical view on these things. Things are always changing. There exists no polity in history that only grew and never shrank, excepting only those polities that are new enough to not have shrunk yet.

I'm actually sort of becoming something of a secessionist. Not pro-Brexit or pro-Calexit or pro-any-particular-secession, but just generally in favor of the idea that since polities are inevitably going to shrink at some point in the future, it is preferable to make sure that such processes are as easy and as bloodless as possible. People shouldn't need to die by the thousands or millions for something so predictable. I am coming to believe it is a mistake to ever think that one can "permanently" bind a smaller polity into a larger one. And I believe the US has the much greater problem here! The US has no established mechanism for leaving (though a Constitutional amendment could make it possible), and a big ol' Civil War that says it's not possible in the bloodiest possible way. To the extent that we are having similar issues arise in the US, we have no peaceful mechanism for dealing with it.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#99

Post by lurker456 »

nl wrote: post #80
djmobley wrote: post #6

Foolish and premature. The UK government has not expressed any intention to restrict skilled immigration in industries facing skills shortages. It is totally unrestricted immigration of low-skilled individuals that the government (and it's fair to say the British population) are opposed to.

The UK government has not expressed any intention to restrict skilled immigration in industries facing skills shortages. That doesn't seem to be the case: Employers would have to pay a £1,000-a-year fee for every EU skilled worker they bring in after Brexit, under plans being considered by the Government. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-... or not: THE Prime Minister has denied the Governm…

it's mostly there to have a bargaining chip in the negotiations with the EU.

Re: Brexit's Tech Brain Drain

#100

Post by [deleted] »

blowski wrote: post #4

A few anecdotes doesn't count as evidence. I voted for Remain, and hope very much that the Brexit process collapses and we end up staying in the EU. But I also don't want to spend the next 2 years being drip-fed poor quality articles about how we're going to hell in a handbasket.

[deleted]
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