The Facebook bubble just popped • Hacker News Board

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#91

Post by zzalpha » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

551199 wrote: post #77

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's predictions have been hilariously wrong about Trump in every way possible. Reading this honestly makes me question why I read HN.

Well, for me, it was usually because of the high quality commentary, wherein folks had rational discussions about the content of a piece rather than resorting to Reddit-style content-free snark that neither educates nor illuminates.

Funny how times change, eh?

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#92

Post by thewhitetulip » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

I find it funny that those who vouched for free speech have been trashing Trump's supporters all this election, too much talk for free speech eh?

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#93

Post by ianai » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

I think the cities and the small rural areas need a project to work on together. My suggestion would be infrastructure projects. Hire the people locally and from the city in masses.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#94

Post by jbondeson » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:54 PM UTC

zzalpha wrote: post #64

jbondeson wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 59million liked all new age sjw stuff That is such an absurd and reductionist dismissal of this election that is no different than the equally wrong people saying "59 million people liked all the old sexist, homophobic, racist and xenophobic attitudes, and 59 million other people didn't" What you are doing here is just perpetuating the problems that have plagued this election cycle and made it so people are complet…

I almost think this was a textbook troll. Start with a reasonable statement. Back that up with some interesting facts. Then drop a bomb in the room and wait for the aftermath. Pretty nicely crafted, all things considered...

Could be, but personally I'm done with being silent and just chuckling silently to myself or rolling my eyes when people pull out these infotainment zingers disguised as "insight".

The last year has ripped covers off the culture war that the US has been slowly boiling in like a frog. BLM and Trump aren't one offs, there are tons of people with serious gripes in this country, and for myself I'd rather call out the BS that obscures this than just sit here and let it stand unchallenged.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#95

Post by chaosbutters314 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:55 PM UTC

woodchuck64 wrote: post #61

Declanomous wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent 5 years living in Wisconsin, and I've been telling everyone that Trump would definitely win there. The week before the election, I actually went so far as to say that I expected Hillary to win the popular vote, and Trump to win the electoral college. I wasn't predicting a Trump win out of bias. I'm very liberal, and my friends are too. However, none of my friends believed me. I'm not going to say I was confid…

Makes sense. Now, how can Silver correct his methodology to capture the above in future elections, I wonder.

I think his methodology was fine and pollsters were shit. If you look carefully at the map, he basically called all the swing states hilary and trump took from one another. His model saw the holes in the pollsters data. I think to swing trump to winnning, he'd probably just have to adjust a weighting factor by fractions of a percent. Look at how close michigan, florida and wisconsin were. The tiniest of margins won it for trump in the end. Literally a handful of factories that had closed in the past decade between those states determined this race.

The scarier thing is that for the next 10-20 years, boomers in the rust belt are going to swing republican unless dems can get a Bernie. To me, whatever democrat wins the michigan primary, is their candidate above all else.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#96

Post by 75j » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

sickbeard wrote: post #79

zzalpha wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I almost think this was a textbook troll. Start with a reasonable statement. Back that up with some interesting facts. Then drop a bomb in the room and wait for the aftermath. Pretty nicely crafted, all things considered...

Thanks but you're wrong. Maybe SJW is a trigger word for you but it was just a general description of the divide shown in the US election. The people living outside of the cities obviously rejected things being shoved down their throats. For the record I liked Hillary, but I wouldn't be surprised if she lost against a frog.. let alone trump.

What does SJW mean to you? Just someone who cares about social issues, or someone who only pretends to care for self-serving purposes? Or something else?

I really dislike that term, but maybe I'm misunderstanding what exactly people mean by it.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#97

Post by sickbeard » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

jbondeson wrote: post #44

sickbeard wrote: post #12

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

> 59million liked all new age sjw stuff That is such an absurd and reductionist dismissal of this election that is no different than the equally wrong people saying "59 million people liked all the old sexist, homophobic, racist and xenophobic attitudes, and 59 million other people didn't" What you are doing here is just perpetuating the problems that have plagued this election cycle and made it so people are complet…

I think you missed the point of my post. We live in a distortion field, but it's not because our beliefs are wrong, rather we underestimate how many people don't share it.

Pre election they were all over trump. post election they have completely flipped and are blaming democrats/hillary/etc. When in reality we have a near perfect balance of competing views

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#98

Post by blahi » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

ones_and_zeros wrote: post #69

pfortuny wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a federation of States, not a single State. Each one has its weight as State relative to the federation. So it is not "the people" who vote for the president. It is the people who vote whom their State will vote as president.

It is possible to win an election with only 22% of the popular vote. Have you seen this: http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-trouble-with-the-electoral-c... Due to the way the electoral college gives small population states more electoral votes comparatively, votes in small population states have more weight.

Why do you ask him? YOu rehashed what he said, putting a negative spin on a very reasonable system. You can't have California drain the other states through economic superiority and then dictate political agenda on the population left in them. The political agenda benefiting California might not be suitable for Wisconsin.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#99

Post by qznc » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:57 PM UTC

misterbowfinger wrote: post #36

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

It is so much easier to sell something people want than something people need.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#100

Post by dasil003 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

sickbeard wrote: post #79

zzalpha wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I almost think this was a textbook troll. Start with a reasonable statement. Back that up with some interesting facts. Then drop a bomb in the room and wait for the aftermath. Pretty nicely crafted, all things considered...

Thanks but you're wrong. Maybe SJW is a trigger word for you but it was just a general description of the divide shown in the US election. The people living outside of the cities obviously rejected things being shoved down their throats. For the record I liked Hillary, but I wouldn't be surprised if she lost against a frog.. let alone trump.

Come on, "SJW", "trigger word"? That right there is loaded language to begin with. And you can't explain the Obama/Trump voter with the SJW angle. To me the most telling statistic was how many people that voted for Trump believed him to be unqualified.

The divide is clearly between insider vs outsider, and dissatisfaction with the status quo. For me the Dems got caught with their pants down because Trump is so despicable as a human that they deemed him unelectable. But they got blind-sided because Trump's message resonated so strongly with half the country that his personal flaws were beside the point.