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After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

nytimes.com

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Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#91

Post by Kurtz79 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #60
chillydawg wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may simply never leave the EU in the first place. I think parliament won't vote to leave because they're not idiots and we won't leave.

Given the last couple of months, I think there's no evidence at all to support the assertion that British politicians aren't idiots. Ignoring the legalities, the Leave vote crossed the Rubicon. The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The British establishment still thinks it's the 19th century, so it's happy not to have an…

"The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK."

This assertion is almost as myopic as those from the Leave campaign.

The UK is one of the richest and most populous countries in the Union, even without considering the repercussions on other members, Brexit will mean a serious blow for the EU in terms of trade loss and budget financing.

I don't think anybody in the EU should be happy of seeing UK's back, regardless of their opinions of its leaders.

It is really a lose-lose situation.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#92

Post by willvarfar »

lucozade wrote: post #84
willvarfar wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Scotland was part of the EU, could it still have a separate Scotland-England-Wales trade-deal? IE could it grow fat being the middle man between the Leavers and the EU?

Highly unlikely. The EU generally negotiates as a bloc. It is almost inconceivable that there won't be some sort of trade deal between the EU and the UK and all of the EU would be party to it. It's probably worth pointing out also that, currently, the UK has a lot of wiggle room when it comes to its relationship with the EU just because of its size. It is very unlikely that Scotland will be given any of this both bec…

(I'm just playing along as devils advocate, with no skin in this game.)

It could be said that Scotland wanting to stay would be politically super-popular with the EU, who strive to draw a sharp divide between the benefits of the EU and the costs of leaving. On the other hand, England could see the compromise where Scotland is its trade partner in Europe as a win-win too.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#93

Post by simonh »

sveme wrote: post #75
bodyfour wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Another is the LSE/Berlin stock exchange merger which was going to see the German exchange hosted and operating from London. That deal will not now happen. DAX is in Frankfurt, not Berlin. What will be interesting is if the deal does go on, but happens in reverse. It might provide an easier path for LSE-listed companies with a heavy European interest to move to DAX. > we cannot even start to negotiate any deals wit…

> The two year window post-A50 is specifically for such negotiations Actually not, the two years is just for getting the divorce right. Most experts indicate that a new arrangement can only be found after the divorce is complete. Though all that probably depends on what kind of leverage rEU wants to keep in dealing with the UK.

I think before the referendum everyone assumed the 2 years was to negotiate a new deal. Certainly all the pro-Leave campaigners seemed to think so. I'm a bit shocked that the remain camp didn't point this out earlier. It seems to me neither side really had any good idea of what exit actually would involve.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#94

Post by simonh »

krona wrote: post #68
simonh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's also not that clear that Brexit will force finance away from London, which is well entrenched. Maybe not all, but a lot. Over the last few decades London has captured a lot of business that has to be conducted within the EU for regulatory and legal reasons. One example is clearing trades; London clearing houses have captured about 80% of clearing activity from exchanges all across Europe. there are many others…

> These deals can take many years, it took Canada 7 years to negotiate the latest deal and that's still waiting on ratification by all member governments which is likely to take another couple of years. You seem to be insinuating that is Canada's fault for taking 7 years (actually, 5.5) to negotiate a trade deal with 28 member states simultaneously. Needless to say, CETA is more likely to be vetoed by either Czech Re…

My apologies for any such implication, I was only intending to point out how long and difficult such negotiations are likely to be. Blame really wasn't in my mind.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#95

Post by eru »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #60
chillydawg wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may simply never leave the EU in the first place. I think parliament won't vote to leave because they're not idiots and we won't leave.

Given the last couple of months, I think there's no evidence at all to support the assertion that British politicians aren't idiots. Ignoring the legalities, the Leave vote crossed the Rubicon. The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK. The British establishment still thinks it's the 19th century, so it's happy not to have an…

> The EU has always tolerated rather than enjoyed the company of the British establishment. So the EU is happy to see the back of the UK.

The Germans and more market oriented Europeans further east liked the British as a counterweight to the statist French, I think.

More importantly, can the EU actually kick out Britain, if Britain decides not to go forward with the leave?

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#96

Post by shubb »

varjag wrote: post #12
yAnonymous wrote: post #9

>Badly hurt by the financial crisis, the Dutch have capped bankers’ bonuses at just 20 percent of their annual salaries — a far more drastic curb than was imposed by the European Union. Several bankers told me that unless the Dutch repealed the cap, they wouldn’t consider moving to Amsterdam. “I’d love to relocate to Amsterdam,” one top executive told me. “But I don’t think we’re wanted there.” My deepest sympathy go…

If there is market incentive to move banking to Holland, it will happen. The bankers will move where the jobs go, they don't have much say in the matter.

The large salaries paid to bankers are based on the idea that elite bankers are a rare and precious commodity - one that it is worth paying for. Presumably this is elite bankers are the most connected and collaborate to rig markets best.

Presumably if a bank moved to amsterdam, it would not be able to hire the top bankers and would be left out of important money making schemes like the recent Libor conspiracy.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#97

Post by Kurtz79 »

chillydawg wrote: post #37
simonh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's also not that clear that Brexit will force finance away from London, which is well entrenched. Maybe not all, but a lot. Over the last few decades London has captured a lot of business that has to be conducted within the EU for regulatory and legal reasons. One example is clearing trades; London clearing houses have captured about 80% of clearing activity from exchanges all across Europe. there are many others…

We may simply never leave the EU in the first place. I think parliament won't vote to leave because they're not idiots and we won't leave.

It would like saying that the referendum was useless and the will of the people is meaningless.

It would fuel civil unrest and favor far-right parties.

As much as it pains me, it is not really an option.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#98

Post by eru »

lucozade wrote: post #61
willvarfar wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greenland left the EU, although Denmark stayed. Perhaps England can leave the EU but other NI and Scotland stay?

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has been in Brussels discussing this. In summary, it's complicated. Firstly, economically, the remainder of the UK is a far larger market for Scotland than the EU. This wouldn't be a big issue if the UK can negotiate very good access to the single market but that's highly questionable. It also is complicated by the second point. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Sco…

> Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to (re)enter the EU without joining the Euro.

Why? There are plenty of EU countries without the Euro..

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#99

Post by lukasm »

allendoerfer wrote: post #72

> Its population of 2.5 million could absorb a large influx of financial professionals. Frankfurt is just growing over 700k people.

From wiki

Population (2014-12-31)

• City 717,624 • Urban 2,221,910 • Metro 5,500,000

I wouldn't be surprised that there is 7mln that can commute to Frankfurt.

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