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After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

nytimes.com

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Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#61

Post by lucozade »

willvarfar wrote: post #22
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. The UK decided itself to leave the EU. The UK claims that Scotland doesn't have the legal standing to make that call itself. That's a fairly clear sign of loss of sovereignty.

Greenland left the EU, although Denmark stayed. Perhaps England can leave the EU but other NI and Scotland stay?

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has been in Brussels discussing this. In summary, it's complicated.

Firstly, economically, the remainder of the UK is a far larger market for Scotland than the EU. This wouldn't be a big issue if the UK can negotiate very good access to the single market but that's highly questionable. It also is complicated by the second point.

Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to (re)enter the EU without joining the Euro. There are other exemptions the UK has that Scotland won't get but this is the biggy. It was the SNP's original economic plan to join the Euro. However, when the Euro went politically toxic following the crash, this was dropped and pretty much killed SNP's economic argument in the independence referendum. It's still pretty toxic but is probably less so given that the EU referendum has hosed Sterling.

Thirdly, a big issue in the independence referendum that hasn't gone away is that an EU entry requires unanimity and Spain are dead against separatist movements because of the Basque situation. It's possible that they will have their arm twisted by the EU commission if it means another net contributor added to the Euro block but it's not clear cut.

Fourthly, legally, they don't get to choose. They can't officially negotiate with the EU as they aren't treaty partners. Only Westminster can legally grant separation. If Scotland had voted independence the first time then it would have been followed through without a doubt. It is entirely possible the UK parliament will refuse a second time because of the outcome the first.

As to NI, all of the above and then some. The whole of the Troubles was really about NI's status in the United Kingdom and giving that up is unlikely to be a quiet affair. Maybe it won't become violent but there's more history there than in Scotland.

In short, I wouldn't even begin to know how to call this.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#62

Post by krona »

gjm11 wrote: post #54
simonh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's also not that clear that Brexit will force finance away from London, which is well entrenched. Maybe not all, but a lot. Over the last few decades London has captured a lot of business that has to be conducted within the EU for regulatory and legal reasons. One example is clearing trades; London clearing houses have captured about 80% of clearing activity from exchanges all across Europe. there are many others…

> Since canceling the free movement of workers was the defining issue of the referendum, I don't think there's any valid inference from "X is what a lot of people thought they would get by voting Leave" to "X is at all likely to happen if/when the UK leaves the EU". A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS. Nigel Farage admitted within an hour of t…

> A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS.

If anyone of voting age believes that, they are undoubtedly an idiot.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#63

Post by Reason077 »

arethuza wrote: post #18
s_kilk wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Scotland gets its Independence, then Edinburgh is a great candidate for a new London for the finance industry, as it's already got a decent finance presence.

Edinburgh is probably far too small and the centre is too protected (it's a World Heritage Site) for much development to happen here. I'll admit to possibly being a bit of NIMBY in my comment as I live and work in central Edinburgh! http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/728

Edinburgh is a similar size to Zurich - a city regarded as one of the world's most important financial centres.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#64

Post by joakleaf »

throwaway987611 wrote: post #40
realo wrote: post #6

Well... Actually it would seem that Scotland would really like to become independent and be part of the EU. That article should have considered Edimburg, even if it might have been a journalistic faux-pas.

Scotland won't be independent, because they would have to take the Euro. They won't be allowed to use the Pound. So, they will end up like Greece. I really why people don't see this. It's the BRITISH parliment in WESTMINISTER who will decide who uses the pound. NOT YOU, Mr/Mrs Commentator. And they will decide to not allow scotland to use it.

They don't need to take the Euro. They could create their own currency. Not all EU countries use Euro.

I don't see why will end up like Greece. Not all countries using the Euro end up like Greece.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#65

Post by loopbit »

arethuza wrote: post #50
gambiting wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they could, theoretically, print their own pound(as they already do) and tie its value to that of GBP. Or maybe don't do that, and have it separate, like US and Canadian dollars. I know you are going to say that if they join EU they would have to take the eruo - but I don't see why it couldn't be negotiated away, there's plenty of countries which agreed to take the Euro(Poland for example) but after the 2008 cr…

Scottish banks do indeed print their own bank notes (as do some in NI)- but they are for the GDP. Mind you, you used to get situations (a while back) where foreign exchange places in Europe would give you worse exchange rates for Scottish notes rather than English ones.

Foreign exchanges giving worse exchange rate is better than the situation I've had many times in england, were I was simply unable to pay with or exchange northern irish or scottish pounds.

Someone told me that, by law, they have to accept those notes, but I still have ~40 NI pounds that I took to london on a trip a couple of years ago and had to take back with me.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#66

Post by lukasm »

Bromskloss wrote: post #57

Why does it have to be in the EU? Can it not remain in London (or in New York)?

It's all about risk. If the negotiation fall through and GB won't have access to the single market it makes sense to move the business. If you want to trade with a customer in France you may be legally required to have a business there or in EU.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#67

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lordnacho wrote: post #7

There's an ongoing offshoring of certain divisions anyway, something the article alludes to with the Polish IT staff. That kind of thing is Brexit independent. Michelin stars are not synonymous with having good restaurants. Something like a good steakhouse is not captured my Michelin, which is a very narrow definition of good food. There's also the requirement of variety, which London does extremely well: food from m…

> Something like a good steakhouse is not captured my Michelin

My hometown steakhouse, Alexander's, carries a Michelin star

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#68

Post by krona »

simonh wrote: post #27
lordnacho wrote: post #7

There's an ongoing offshoring of certain divisions anyway, something the article alludes to with the Polish IT staff. That kind of thing is Brexit independent. Michelin stars are not synonymous with having good restaurants. Something like a good steakhouse is not captured my Michelin, which is a very narrow definition of good food. There's also the requirement of variety, which London does extremely well: food from m…

> It's also not that clear that Brexit will force finance away from London, which is well entrenched. Maybe not all, but a lot. Over the last few decades London has captured a lot of business that has to be conducted within the EU for regulatory and legal reasons. One example is clearing trades; London clearing houses have captured about 80% of clearing activity from exchanges all across Europe. there are many others…

> These deals can take many years, it took Canada 7 years to negotiate the latest deal and that's still waiting on ratification by all member governments which is likely to take another couple of years.

You seem to be insinuating that is Canada's fault for taking 7 years (actually, 5.5) to negotiate a trade deal with 28 member states simultaneously.

Needless to say, CETA is more likely to be vetoed by either Czech Republic, Bulgaria or Romania, than ratified.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#70

Post by willvarfar »

lucozade wrote: post #61
willvarfar wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greenland left the EU, although Denmark stayed. Perhaps England can leave the EU but other NI and Scotland stay?

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has been in Brussels discussing this. In summary, it's complicated. Firstly, economically, the remainder of the UK is a far larger market for Scotland than the EU. This wouldn't be a big issue if the UK can negotiate very good access to the single market but that's highly questionable. It also is complicated by the second point. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Sco…

If Scotland was part of the EU, could it still have a separate Scotland-England-Wales trade-deal?

IE could it grow fat being the middle man between the Leavers and the EU?

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