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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#891

Post by eudamoniac »

xienze wrote: post #480
SwellJoe wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.

I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?

Wouldn't it make more sense to move it after the IPO? The supposed scam here is that Elon et al will dump their shares and crash the value, but that cannot happen for 90(?) days after IPO. So I think you should let your index buy the inflated IPO, then sell it before the crash, not sit it out entirely.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#892

Post by Rover222 »

snapcaster wrote: post #834
Rover222 wrote: post #758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how dare you come in with rationality in the face of ELON BAD

It's still extremely corrupt, and done to benefit a very small group of people. Dismissing the criticism like this is directly against the rules and spirit of hackernews to assume good faith

You're using the word corruption without any solid evidence. The decision for the rule change has been clearly explained.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#893

Post by redox99 »

flumpcakes wrote: post #553
redox99 wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now that Moores law is dead I think GPUs will depreciate a lot slower. I mean there's already a lot of hardware that has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years.

> I mean there's already a lot of hardware that has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years. The vast majority of the price rise is mainly due to AI companies sucking all the air out of the room and everyone investing in "AI" regardless. If China gets their process down to match US/Korea/Taiwan and they decide to flood the market to drown out competitors then hardware is going to be an order of magnitude (or two) c…

You're partly right, but we can't ignore that EUV is inherently a lot more expensive, and progress towards new nodes is very slow (current fast hardware will stay fast much longer).

Back in the day the PS3 came with a 90nm GPU and was cost reduced all the way to 65nm, 40nm and finally 28nm. That won't happen again.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#894

Post by mynameajeff »

roflulz wrote: post #289
fragmede wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Spent way too long looking into this, and I don't think the plain S&P 500 Shariah would exclude SpaceX, I spent a while reading through the methodology [1][2] of the index and I don't see why it would be. I do think the S&P 500 Shariah Industry Exclusions Index [2][3] would be the one that excludes SpaceX as it excludes Aerospace, while no such exclusion exists for the plain S&P 500 Shariah.

[1] https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/methodology/article/sp-sha... [2] https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/me... [3] https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#895

Post by wrsh07 »

JohnMakin wrote: post #867
wrsh07 wrote: post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are a lot of retirements on the line just by this fact 1) I would expect anyone close to retirement to have a fairly balanced portfolio. 2) if they don't include SpaceX and the stock does >10x in the next year, they'll end up doing terribly on the benchmarks. SpaceX is big, but if they invest early, it won't be a ridiculous % of the portfolio. Even if one overpays by 2x, since it's under .1% of the total port…

Am I misreading 2) or are you saying you think there’s a reasonable chance spaceX market cap could become 10+ trillion in the next year?

i'm not saying they will justify that market cap, but Tesla always hit market cap numbers years before they could possibly be justified and once they were justified the stock price would go right up again into nonsense territory

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#896

Post by AtNightWeCode »

SilverElfin wrote: post #37

Can the stock market remain legitimate after such a brazen example of dumping? Regular everyday people can’t access private shares and participate in upside even if they want to. They don’t have the connections like VCs, and aren’t accredited investors. And companies ban secondary transactions, which should be forced by law to be always allowed. And then after all that, the public have to deal with their index funds,…

I think it is incorrect to place these corps in the same bucket. The scam here is SPCX. The only reason they are allowed to do this bs is because Nasdaq are greedy and wants this ticker on their stock exchange. The evaluation of SPCX is based on the AI leg. Not rockets, not starlink, AI.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#897

Post by maerF0x0 »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #855
maerF0x0 wrote: post #809

At least on SpaceX the float is really low. The Market only needs to "swallow" ~$100Bn in volume of shares (across the 3), which the NYSE does _daily_. the really interesting thing will be how much will other stocks go down because the passive dollars are chasing the new shares and have to sell to rebalance?

If we’re going to have a Great Depression, this will be the trigger. Every single fund autodumps billions in shares and is forced to buy slop. The dumping triggers the algorithm traders who dump. The dumping triggers manual traders to dump. The crashing causes retail to dump. Everyone dumps their treasuries and gold because they’re both crashing and they want cash. And there’s no capability to raise money in any west…

Exit index now, Buy non-slop at discount later. Profet.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#898

Post by gitfan86 »

sigmoid10 wrote: post #716
gitfan86 wrote: post #704

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period. They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500…

This disregards the fundamental reason why people buy index funds in the first place. Rules for consistent GAAP profitability and cooldown periods specifically prevent retail investors from being exposed to particular malicious stock market tactics and overall risks that otherwise could significantly hurt them in the short term. So it's more like saying "you don't like extra risk? too bad."

Yes, if someone thinks that the top 500 companies include too much risk then yes too bad, you need to move out of SPY.

It isn't called the S&P495 because they kick out 5 of the biggest companies that some people consider to be risky.

I personally think its super risky to want to be Diversified and NOT include any exposure to SpaceX. Yes, Elon is unique but that doesn't mean his companies are going to fail especially given the potential risk of AI changing the world. Is IBM going to keep selling overpriced IT outsourcing in 5 years?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#899

Post by giancarlostoro »

zwarag wrote: post #429
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

I just gave you several non-dev examples of how AI is used or has achieved things we could only dream about. Not to mention how Qualia is using it within the Real Estate sector.

https://cloud.google.com/customers/qualia

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#900

Post by HWR_14 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #869
HWR_14 wrote: post #852

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6. Pension funds tend not to exclusively hold index funds. Individual retail investors do in their 401ks or personally. Pension funds tend to be fairly sophisticated and can easily insulate themselves from SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic if they want either by owning index funds and shorting the other companies or by not purchasing the stock. Also, pension funds are immune to (9) as taxes are handled differently for them. 7.…

> can easily insulate themselves from SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic if they want either by owning index funds > ETF managers that track an index aren't allowed to put discretion into what they buy. I detect a contradiction here.

Pension fund managers are not ETF managers. They both buy securities in a fund, but that's about the extent of the similarities.
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