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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#881

Post by geysersam »

bluegatty wrote: post #863
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

"After 9/11, there's no world in which any attack on the US homeland, however small or local, is met with anything other than overwhelming retribution." Ok, just follow through with the logic. If the US 'flatteNed' Cuba (like Gaza) in response to a few drones - it would 100% make the US 'The Evil Empire' and turn the world 100% against America as a neo fascist entity. The costs would be unthinkable, and probably the…

> If the US 'flatteNed' Cuba (like Gaza) in response to a few drones - it would 100% make the US 'The Evil Empire' and turn the world 100% against America as a neo fascist entity.

It has already happened. Even in west Europe politicians are discussing how to protect their nations from US imperialism. Every remaining alliance the US has is strictly quid pro quo, there's no trust left anywhere (Israel being the singular exception). Meanwhile 50% of the planet is completely fed up and can't wait to have China take over as leader of the international order.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#882

Post by TheCoelacanth »

ACCount37 wrote: post #866
MidnightRider39 wrote: post #760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think air dominance will hold up for long if a plane costs billions and a drone a couple thousand. Any interceptor rocket the US uses will set them back millions versus literal peanuts on the other side. Add that Iran is basically a mountain fortress and they’ll run out of money very quickly; disregarding that prolonging the war will be __very__ unpopular in the US. They really got themselves into an unwinnab…

How does a drone costing "a couple thousand" take out a plane? It doesn't. Shaheds and quads offer no threat to US air superiority. Iran can fling them at the ground targets willy-nilly, sure, and that will inflict causalities on FOBs and ground forces. There's no ready-made solution to low end attack drones. But the sky is going to remain with the US. This allows US to dispense JDAMs at anything that pops its nose o…

This war is unwinnable because there is no possible benefit that will outweigh the cost.

You don't win a war when you cause the most destruction to your enemy. You win when you achieve a political objective.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#883

Post by AngryData »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #209
b00ty4breakfast wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can lose a game of chess to a guy with fewer and less powerful pieces than you if you play like a moron. The US has been playing the Iran situation like a gigantic moron.

Maybe I am misinformed, but I was under the impression that the US was so capable it is not even playing the same game as a country like Iran. As in they could brute force solutions due to superior technology and infrastructure, because that is how much more the US spends on it.

Every time I try such strategies in Total War it results in an early success but long term failure. If you don't play every engagement like it could be your last you end up with multiple Pyrrhic victories and before long you are bogged down with loses and problems and start losing.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#884

Post by sam-cop-vimes »

jacquesm wrote: post #694
sph wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number 1 reason why I want to see the United States of America and its very loud citizens get a taste of humble pie in this self-inflicted crisis of idiocy with global ramifications. Even when discussing a war that's obviously gone out of hand with no easy resolution in right, there's still this air, this attitude from American commenters that somehow the might and brilliance of the US military will prevail in the en…

You'd think after 9/11 that the US would approach all of this with more forethought but the opposite seems to be the case.

When I was a child, I was part of a team playing a game against a team which was stronger than us. Each player from one team had to take turns taking the attack to the opponent's team. Every player in our team put themselves forward thinking they can do better, only to be slapped down.

The current administration's approach is something similar. They think that because they have managed to take over American politics and do as they please in the US, they think they can do anything they want outside the US as well. Previous administrations had more awareness of their limitations - but I guess we are in the FA of the FAFO phase.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#885

Post by AngryData »

shiroiuma wrote: post #323
pram wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think our navy is mostly designed for prestige too, but it seems like you could use the current carriers to transport like a million disposable drones?

Drones have limited range. Perhaps a submarine would be better: sneak close to your target, raise a pipe from the sub to the surface, then launch a bunch of drones from it.

Driving your submarines into a narrow area with limited depth is driving right into a bottleneck trap.

It may be hard to locate a submarine out in the deep open sea, not so much if they are limited in escape routes. Some $50 microphones in the water will be able to pick up submarine activity and if the sub is in range of sending out drones it is in range of being detected by drones equipped with simple magnetic sensors. And that is assuming they can't put an active bit of sonar on two or three drones and drop them in the sea and triangulate it to within a few hundred feet to start with.

That still doesn't make them easy to take out, but the cost of potentially losing a submarine is so massive that it doesn't make sense to risk them to start with.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#886

Post by jalapenoj »

NickC25 wrote: post #865
nemomarx wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How to get Israel to back down in that scenario? They seem pretty committed to keeping this going.

This is what everyone misses. Bibi has been found guilty by his own court system of gross corruption. Bibi tried to neuter his country's court system as a result, which pissed off a lot of Israel's population. Everything from 10/7 onward has been done to encourage Israelis to rally 'round the flag and keep fighting the enemy. Bibi goes to jail if the perma-war stops. Bibi does not want to go to jail.

He can just move to the US and order the senate to take turns kissing his feet.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#887

Post by AngryData »

Ajedi32 wrote: post #854
curiousElf wrote: post #474

Must be nice for western arm chair commentators to discuss this without once feeling the consequences of the actions of their elected government. Where I live - we face a severe shortage of LPG fuel due to this. Quite a few restaurants have shut down temporarily. Migrant workers around the parts who have no access to a kitchen because they live in tiny quarters with a bedding and a common toilet are struggling to fin…

Blocking the strait is Iran's doing, not the US's. The US attacked them yes, but they were the ones who responded by threatening to blow up the ships of innocent third parties. They couldn't hurt the US, so they decided to hurt you instead. Why the world is tolerating this behavior as if it's a legitimate strategy and blaming it on the US is beyond me.

What do you mean its not the US's doing? They knew 100% before going in that the straight being closed would be the result of attacking Iran. If the US didn't attack Iran, there would be no blockade.

Its like going into a bar and you start beating people up and so the bar owner kicks everyone out and then you say "It's not my fault the bar closed, it's the bar owner's fault, I merely started the fight that caused the bar to close!"

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#888

Post by nathan_douglas »

dfedbeef wrote: post #811
jacquesm wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this does in the long run is set the stage for another 9/11.

Literally. The US is run by people who can't see past their fucking noses.

There are no incentive structures (besides possibly "posterity") to encourage anyone to see past their noses. In fact, hardly anyone at any level of any organization, public or private, is able to operate with a real longterm, sustainable outlook. They'd get shitcanned for trying to plan ahead, even if they were intellectually equipped for that.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#889

Post by Ajedi32 »

AngryData wrote: post #887
Ajedi32 wrote: post #854

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blocking the strait is Iran's doing, not the US's. The US attacked them yes, but they were the ones who responded by threatening to blow up the ships of innocent third parties. They couldn't hurt the US, so they decided to hurt you instead. Why the world is tolerating this behavior as if it's a legitimate strategy and blaming it on the US is beyond me.

What do you mean its not the US's doing? They knew 100% before going in that the straight being closed would be the result of attacking Iran. If the US didn't attack Iran, there would be no blockade. Its like going into a bar and you start beating people up and so the bar owner kicks everyone out and then you say "It's not my fault the bar closed, it's the bar owner's fault, I merely started the fight that caused the…

Iran doesn't own the strait. They don't have a right to close the bar in the first place.

If one guy throws a punch and the other guy responds by throwing a molotov cocktail into the kitchen you don't charge the first guy with arson, even if he "should have known that second guy was crazy".

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#890

Post by jvanderbot »

dlisboa wrote: post #815
jvanderbot wrote: post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a fairly well trod argument. It also requires a fairly long series of strawman arguments to come together. Yes, there are challenges, but ... The reality of Hormuz was well known decades ago - even in 2002 Millenium exercise a bunch of speedboats and motorcycles stopped the US Navy from opening hormuz. [1] Moskva was taken down by a well coordinated strike that distracted its one (1!) fire control radar. It w…

> A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones. Russia has literally taken over the industrial heart of Ukraine in the east and southeast regions. With boots on the ground, tanks, ev…

Think about it this way - if Russia had the US Navy's task force near Ukraine, and the level of air dominance that US has in Iran, do you think Russia would do anything differently? Would they, for example, be making 100s - 1000s of daily aerial strikes anywhere in Ukraine?

Because US _does_ have that, and so it _does_ significantly change the calculus. Unless you think it doesn't. In which case, we just disagree.

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