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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#871

Post by grep_name »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #784
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Here are some options for pre-tax retirement funds (ex. 401k): 1. Exchange your market-cap funds for S&P 500. Afaict, even with their own rules changing, they will wait up to 6 months (as opposed to 12) to let SpaceX in. This is the simplest solution that buys you time without losing other gains in the market, assuming your existing funds were broad market-cap funds. The idea here is to wait for ~5 months and see if…

[dead]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#872

Post by HWR_14 »

eru wrote: post #558
disillusioned wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because nothing about the IPO price has any resemblance to a fair market valuation, and if it's being propped up by this forced inclusion, even less so? The rules existed to fundamentally protect against a Potemkin village situation where an underwriter and some early round investors whip the valuation into a froth and raise against a rabid corps of retail investors who don't necessarily care about a PE ratio of 1,00…

You know that short selling is possible? And index funds are traditionally some of the keenest participants to lend their shares out to short sellers in return for a bit of extra return (over the raw index).

Can you short a company that quickly after it's IPO? I thought there was a period when that was impossible.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#873

Post by andrepd »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #784
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Here are some options for pre-tax retirement funds (ex. 401k): 1. Exchange your market-cap funds for S&P 500. Afaict, even with their own rules changing, they will wait up to 6 months (as opposed to 12) to let SpaceX in. This is the simplest solution that buys you time without losing other gains in the market, assuming your existing funds were broad market-cap funds. The idea here is to wait for ~5 months and see if…

Thanks, but if wanted to ask chatgpt we would

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#874

Post by deadbabe »

reducesuffering wrote: post #853
deadbabe wrote: post #824

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a random comment, it’s a comment from Hackernews which is filled with smart people who are tapped deep into these industries.

So you'll be buying if it's at $5T market cap then? Because if not, you agree it's a matter of how much it's worth to pay for the wildly different ranges of future growth.

In 10 or 20 years when people are still bitching about P/E ratios the price of SpaceX will still be way higher than whatever you buy it at IPO.

Either that, or it will be zero.

16 years ago when Tesla IPOed, people still bitched about it just the same way. Do you think buying and holding the stock all this time would have been some bad investment? Or what about bitcoin, which truly has no value?

Read the room. Just get in there and make money, or get left behind.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#875

Post by neogodless »

throwawaypath wrote: post #786
neogodless wrote: post #723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general you should never "sell your 401k." Period. (Short of using it for income during retirement.) What you should do is have an Investor Policy Statement[0]. This should contain at least two things: - your desired Asset Allocation (e.g. 30% U.S. stocks, 30% International stocks, 20% U.S. bonds, 20% International bonds) which should be decided upon based on specific, personal goals and risk tolerance - your stri…

Firms will look at your $600k 401k AUM, Investor Policy Statements, and laugh you out the door. They won't care, you have no say. Your 401k plan is between them and your employer.

A few things:

- yes 401k fund options are negotiated by people that don't know I exist, or care

- but... how I allocate my contributions to those funds is under my discretion

- and... I've never stayed somewhere long enough to have a $600k 401k balance. As soon as I'm gone, I roll it over to a private account that I have full control over (and much lower expense ratios.)

So I don't really care if I'm in the door or laughed out the door, because it has no material affect on how I manage my finances.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#876

Post by mullingitover »

ijidak wrote: post #825
zwarag wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows. By the time you see the applications, the market will have moved on to value the next set of future cash flows. If the market only valued the obvious, investors would jump in to buy the price up, until it met the average expectations. The market might be wrong, but the question is not: "Have you yet to see?", but rather, "What do you see in the next three to fi…

> Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

Sir, this is a casino/Keynesian Beauty Contest.

Markets value what the market participants think the other participants will value. On occasion, this intersects with reality.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#877

Post by caycep »

pryce wrote: post #355
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

How did they push this through? Trumpian regulators?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#878

Post by Zigurd »

tristanj wrote: post #823
Zigurd wrote: post #780

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX would tell you to look at how profitable is Starlink. Two things about that: you have to replace the infrastructure every five years while terrestrial infrastructure electronics lasts at least twice as long, and inert stuff like towers and fiber lasts for decades. And you can drive a truck to where it's located if there is a problem. Secondly, terrestrial infrastructure keeps expanding into the rural areas tha…

Several issues: 1) The short lifespan is intentional. There is no reason to keep satellites beyond a few years because older satellites quickly become obsolete. The first generation Starlink sats are now 4 generations old, and are practically ancient at this point. SpaceX wants older satellites to fail, so they can be replaced by updated ones. 2) SpaceX could easily increase the lifespan of Starlink satellites to 10-…

Instead of using a DeLorean, you asked FSD to drive you to a future where all of Elon's promises come true. By what decade will starship have 100 ton proven payload, and be reusable without lots of expensive refurbishment?

One thing that isn't going to happen is to magically extend the life of low Earth orbit satellites. You can have low latency, which you need for a telephone network, or you can have long lived satellites. But not both. You also need propellant to avoid collisions.

$250k is plausible for a high capacity cell site for an urban area. A small site with wireless backhaul can be $10k, or even less in some cases. If I am to believe the optimistic numbers, a Starlink bird costs about $500K and putting it into orbit cost of another $500K per satellite. But that means be believing that SpaceX can launch a used F9 for just $15 million, when the retail price of an F9 is $75 million.

EBITDA is the wrong yardstick when you're talking about space rockets having to deliver your infrastructure.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#879

Post by wmeredith »

caycep wrote: post #877
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

How did they push this through? Trumpian regulators?

Essentially, yes, as I understand it. Elon's "investment" of millions in the current administration is paying dollars on the penny.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#880

Post by prepend »

d--b wrote: post #177
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Wow, didn’t know that. If SpaceX tanks and 401ks are left holding the bag, this could result in the biggest class action lawsuit ever.

SpaceX would be the target of the lawsuits. Index funds/401ks are immaterial.

Check out previous flops like Enron (only $60b) for examples of lawsuits.

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