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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#871

Post by joejohnson »

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Sadly they have dropped requirements that Netanyahu be turned over to the ICC, but it's important to recognize that this ceasefire is between Iran and the US only and not necessarily a deal between Iran and Israel.

>> 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

Hard for the Iranians to take anything the US says seriously. US launched attacks in the middle of the last two negotiations.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#872

Post by none2585 »

nslsm wrote: post #738
Unicironic wrote: post #283

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

> The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. That’s not the reason. The US is an occupied government.

Occupied by who exactly? We elected this government, we get what we deserve.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#874

Post by erfgh »

Countries that send their oil through the strait of Hormuz will build alternative routes. But for such routes to be ready a few years will be needed. Once alternative routes are in place, and since Iran will likely not have a nuclear weapon by then, full obliteration of Iran will ensue.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#875

Post by throwawayheui57 »

amritananda wrote: post #504
keepamovin wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t accept the theocratic tyrants who implement terrorism, execute their own people and slaughter them as they protest remain in charge. They should be forced out of power. I wonder if the US had struck when momentum was high during the popular uprising, it could have being self sustaining, with arms and logistics setup to feed the resistance advance.

The delusional idea that one can affect regime change through bombing is the cause of quite a bit death and destruction throughout the world. Maybe the problem wasn't the timing, but the fact that thousands of people were killed and millions lived in fear for the future for the past month? That's enough to cause most people to stand behind their government, no matter how reviled they might be.

Regime change with air invasion is unlikely.

The civilian casualties of the war is still significantly lower than the number killed by the regime (according to Amnesty International with conservative number). So while I agree that people don’t want bombing, I highly doubt that the war makes them like their oppressors. They love their country and Iran and islamic regime are not the same exactly.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#876

Post by Invictus0 »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Only on hacker news is the destruction of all your military hardware and the death of all your leaders a win

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#877

Post by deadbabe »

Invictus0 wrote: post #876
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Only on hacker news is the destruction of all your military hardware and the death of all your leaders a win

Those can be replaced. The damage to US reputation and influence will last the rest of our lives.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#878

Post by phtrivier »

Will people buy more American / Venezuelian / Russian oil now that the ME is going to be perpetually under the threat of another Iranian squeeze ?

Will pipelines with creative routing make a comeback ?

Or will people, you know, try to reduce their dependency on oil and gas by using less prehistoric technology ? Naaaah that would require R&D. Leave that to the Chinese. We have pensioners to support.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#879

Post by jzb »

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

To summarize: a far worse deal than what Obama had and Trump ripped up, and worse than the status quo that existed before Trump started illegally bombing Iran.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#880

Post by appointment »

fernandopj wrote: post #340
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have the U.S. and Iran agreed the points? Or is this two weeks to hammer them down?

Two weeks of open Strait to nail the final version, yes. I guess gas prices in US will cool down to pre-war price averages and the pressure not to resume aggression will be huge.

Absolutely not. It will takes months to years to rebuild onshore infrastructure, and shipping companies will be very reluctant to send tankers into the Gulf. Negotiations may collapse and hostilities resume at any moment, especially since Israel does not know the meaning of the word ceasefire.
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