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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#871

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The system as it is sucks for more than 50% of the population, though. With a two-party system, you're either going to have tyranny of the majority, or tyranny of the minority. Neither is good, but the former is preferable.

Neither is good, but the former is preferable. This is why being gay before 1950 was so great: because the majority of society got its way. That's why there was segregation in many places in the US back then: because the majority of society got its way. It took the Civil Rights movement of the 1960's to get the in-built principles and mechanisms which are there in the US system to protect the minority to really apply…

The examples you give are of a kind that give minorities rights that cannot be overridden by voting.

EC and Senate are a very different arrangement - they don't protect any rights as such, they simply give some people more votes than others. Which means that not only those people can then veto majority decisions (even when they don't actually infringe on their rights) - but they can impose legislation that curtails rights of the majority.

As for it being a short-sighted view that majority should generally have its way, well, here's Federalist #22, for one:

"Every idea of proportion and every rule of fair representation conspire to condemn a principle, which gives to Rhode Island an equal weight in the scale of power with Massachusetts, or Connecticut, or New York; and to Delaware an equal voice in the National deliberations with Pennsylvania, or Virginia, or North Carolina. Its operation contradicts the fundamental maxim of republican Government, which requires that the sense of the majority should prevail. Sophistry may reply, that sovereigns are equal, and that a majority of the votes of the States will be a majority of confederated America. But this kind of logical legerdemain will never counteract the plain suggestions of justice and common sense. It may happen that this majority of States is a small minority of the People of America; and two thirds of the People of America could not long be persuaded, upon the credit of artificial distinctions and syllogistic subtleties, to submit their interests to the management and disposal of one third. The larger States would after a while revolt from the idea of receiving the law from the smaller. To acquiesce in such a privation of their due importance in the political scale, would be not merely to be insensible to the love of power, but even to sacrifice the desire of equality. It is neither rational to expect the first, nor just to require the last. The smaller States, considering how peculiarly their safety and welfare depend on Union, ought readily to renounce a pretension, which, if not relinquished, would prove fatal to its duration."

Was Hamilton short-sighted when he wrote this criticism? You can argue that it was originally aimed at the Articles of Confederation, not EC and Senate. But it's clear that this is a rather generic criticism, and it's applicable whenever "larger States ... receiving the law from the smaller" becomes commonplace - which depends on how many states there are, and their relative sizes, which have changed a lot since the original 13 colonies. Looking at the outcomes of the presidential and parliamentary elections in the past 20 years, I'd say that this condition is already fully in force, and so is the warning.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#872

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other thing to remember is that nobody actually loses anything when stock prices go down. Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. To insist that valuations cannot be allowed to go down as a matter of government policy is totally bonkers.

> Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. But the valuation is the number that actually matters, not the number of stocks you own. You can't buy food with stocks, you have to exchange them for money first. If the price of stocks goes down then you own less real value.

Right but just as the total number of outstanding stocks remains the same, so does the total number of outstanding dollars. Both the total stocks and the total dollars remain unchanged, they just changed hands. For every loser of money, there is also a winner. Just because you paid too much does not mean that the federal government should come running to bail you out. In the aggregate, nothing is created or destroyed except for illusions.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#873

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

I think there's two confounding factors there, in the US parking is usually plentiful and right out front (or visible), so you're always seen in the vehicle you pull up in. It can be a part of your identity, both for yourself, and socially. Americans also spend a lot of time in their cars, I went from a short commute to a long commute (1 hour each way), and found I got almost exponentially more critical of my car the…

That's an interesting thought, but what part of that requires you to buy a new car? Car technology moves notoriously slowly, and the comfort and features of a new car compared to a 3 year old car at 2/3rd the price is negligible. (outside of the move to electric cars anyway)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#874
post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

Who buys them, then? Obviously someone is buying them new. Frankly, as an American, the UK's car market seems nuts to me. The kinds of cars that folks get as "company cars" is laughable.

I couldn't say for certain, but I feel like people in the UK run cars much longer than Americans as they don't do as many miles. It's not uncommon to see cars in the UK around 15-20 years old (often not older as there was a trade-in scheme years back)

The rule of thumb in the UK is a car gets about 10k miles per year and "modern" cars tend to last about 150-200k miles before they're not worth the repair costs.

For example, my car is a 2005 Focus which I recognise is older than most cars on the road, but costs me a couple hundred quid in maintenance each year and I have no intention in upgrading until it becomes uneconomical

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#875

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On #2: No one is helped except perhaps medical supply companies. Folks are mistaking the durability of these companies in the face of SIP orders (due to their ability to function under WFH conditions).

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/28/21239516/npd-consumer-spe... "Sales of monitors increased by 73 percent compared to last year, PCs were up 53 percent, printers were up by 61 percent, and microphones were up by a massive 147 percent. Chromebook sales are also reportedly seeing triple-digit sales increases, which makes sense given how popular they are in classrooms. Underpinning all this tech is a 70 percent increas…

Sure, but this is not a sustained trend. It's a panic buy right after a major disruption to the market.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#876

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Auction it out. Highest bidder on rent gets to keep it.

This doesn't make sense. You're now saying that the government is going to be in charge of inspecting every citizen's property and auctioning it for them? I'm as liberal as they come, and that just seems ridiculous.

Yes. Perhaps not the government though, what I have in mind is an institution representing the commons and all individuals right to it. So the income from said auctions could not be used for arbitrary government spending but only for the interest of the commons: The ones agreeing to respect the ownership deal by being non-owners of the asset in question. I imagine most of the revenue would just be payed back as a dividend.

Edit: (I do not think of wealth in the form of art though. Imagine most wealth is tied up in capital assets$

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#877

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/28/21239516/npd-consumer-spe... "Sales of monitors increased by 73 percent compared to last year, PCs were up 53 percent, printers were up by 61 percent, and microphones were up by a massive 147 percent. Chromebook sales are also reportedly seeing triple-digit sales increases, which makes sense given how popular they are in classrooms. Underpinning all this tech is a 70 percent increas…

Sure, but this is not a sustained trend. It's a panic buy right after a major disruption to the market.

Panic buy? Monitors? More like the role of these devices is changing in people's lives. I'd wager that more people are going to be spending more time at home for quite some time, and that even for the people who won't, they'll start to be more sensitive to the shortcomings of their electronics after spending way more time using them than the would have had there been more things to do outside of the house.
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