861–870 of 1001 posts
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if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness
Just calling it gambling emphasizes the former problem while dismissing the latter problem.
Here's what a spokesperson for Polymarket said: "Polymarket condemns the harassment and threats directed at Emanuel Fabian, or anyone else for that matter. This behavior violates our terms of service and has no place on our platform or anywhere else. Prediction markets depend on the integrity of independent reporting. Attempts to pressure journalists to alter their reporting undermine that integrity and undermine the…
At the time of the threats the odds were likely very skewed, as in over 99% to one side. For events where a single article could be a fulcrum, it seems like a feasible strategy to wager on the 1% and then try to manipulate the writer into changing the outcome. The chances of success will be low, but likely higher than 1% therefore the expected value[1] may be high. Most people on Polymarket are gamblers and have no i…
> Most people on Polymarket are gamblers Every person on Polymarket is a gambler. By definition.
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if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say
I can tell the difference (at least I think) but I have no idea what your point is.
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This is an old plot, done already in dozens of different variations.
I think there are lots of plots that revolve around rigging sports betting (e.g. sub-plot in Pulp Fiction), but I can't really think of a case where it is not so much about manipulating the actual act that occurred, but rather the news reporting of the act.
For example, this from House of Cards: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/arts/television/house-of-...
> Pollyhop is a fictional, Google-esque search engine that according to Leann’s polling expert is being exploited by the Republican candidate Will Conway in ways that suggest Underwood can’t possibly beat him in the general election. The explanation of how Pollyhop works is convoluted at best, but the gist is that Conway and his people are manipulating search engine results so that only positive coverage of their side appears.
Or more recent examples of what essentially boils down to the plot device of "media manipulation" aka manipulating the "news reporting of the act":
- See the most recent season of Industry, which included several plot points about manipulating news coverage as a short-seller and the company being targeted fought back and forth (including specific focus on the individual journalists involved)
- See Andor, everything about how the Empire twists perception of what's happening on Ghorman, leading up the Ghorman massacre itself, and then culminating in Mon Mothma's speech in the Senate denouncing "the death of truth is the ultimate victory of evil"
- See The Orville, a particular episode: https://orville.fandom.com/wiki/Majority_Rule which includes the plot point of hacking that society's "master feed" to plant false manipulative stories to curry public favor and save a character from being punished
- See The Boys, how Vought manipulates the media to twist coverage of their "heroes" even when they commit atrocities
- See other House of Cards plotlines involving Zoe Barnes and being a direct mouthpiece for Frank Underwood
I think the only real difference if any, is that in the most common form of portrayal, maybe less attention is paid to the journalist as the point of leverage, and how they deal with threats or bribes or whatever. The fact that such manipulation occurs, is commonly accepted as a trope, without requiring too much of a deep dive. Whether a story choose to focus on the "reporter's perspective" is perhaps less common, but not uncommon IMO.
As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…
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Please give me a single example backing up the claim that Quincy Institute is "a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank" On their page "Quincy Institute’s Position on Russia-Ukraine" they say at the very beginning: > We categorically condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and support U.S. assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense. https://quincyinst.org/2022/07/12/quincy-institutes-position...
It has been suggested that QI’s approach is insufficiently critical of Russia. https://quincyinst.org/2022/07/12/quincy-institutes-position...
Would you honestly genuinely describe this as "a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank"? Dishonesty
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So you are saying that if business entity starts a pharma company that creates a drug for some kind of novel disease, but the disease does not currently exist, they will take steps to make an epidemic of it more likely?
Yes, because they would have to. Why start a pharma company for a disease that doesn’t exist? How else would you get people to invest in a company providing something people don’t want unless you have a plan to make them want it?
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Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology. There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.
We can ban online betting and betting advertising though. If you want to bet on ponies go to a racetrack. No apps, no phones.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned that there was no safe course of action for the journalist because there was money on both sides of this outcome. No matter what he reported, he would have the other side threatening him.
Perhaps because he is a journalist whose job is to report reality, not avoid threats?