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> I sense a large number of Polymarket apologists in the comments. This is a bad faith start to any argument. It speaks past the conclusion that one side needs apologetics/advocates in the first place.
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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
751–760 of 1001 posts
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#752[flagged]
People have been threatened with murder (and I wouldn't be surprised if some people have actually been murdered) over shorting stocks. Yet no one is talking about "stock market apologists". I don't think Polymarket is actually introducing any novel risks or failure modes here. Functionally shorting a stock is not much different than a Polymarket prediction. People trading on oil futures may not be explicitly betting…
> Functionally shorting a stock is not much different than a Polymarket prediction.
But can you short a stock if you are a director at that company?
The problem people have with betting markets isn’t that you can bet on an event. It’s that the event’s outcome might be shaped by the same people (or friends of the people) who actually shape the event.
This is why there are so many articles speculating who bets on Trump winning the election, or which company buys Time Warner or when Venezuela is attacked or when Iran is attacked. Maybe the winner is just a super forecaster in their own house or maybe they are a cabinet secretary walking into the Situation Room.
Sports betting was illegal until the last decade and the sports leagues in the USA had extremely stiff penalties for violating these rules. I’m still not sure what changed (other than money buying the crumbling of regulation).
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#753Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's fundamentally wrong
>That's fundamentally wrong If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.
if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#754As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…
> I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. > Strong regulation and legal consequences... Functionally, you are correct. But the crux of the issue is Polymarket and Kalshi (YC W19) have successfully argued that they are technically a platform that is democratizing "futures", and thus falls under the CFTC - not gambling. Nothing…
Which is of course a blatant abuse of our legal system, since they are doing nothing different than a casino's roulette or blackjack tables.
"Red futures pay out at 2:1!"
"Get your future here on whether the dealer's cards are higher than your own!"
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#755Earlier quoted context omitted.
>That's fundamentally wrong If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.
if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#756Earlier quoted context omitted.
"I will kill you if you do not do X" is still a threat to kill you. All the more so when X is a thing the person will obviously not do. Rewriting the story would destroy whatever credibility they have as a journalist, and probably is literally not even possible assuming they work for any kind of reasonable organization (hey boss, I need you to update that story I wrote so a different set of gamblers win). Also, even…
>Honestly kind of crazy that you call such an ultimatum a "rewrite option" It's crazy for me to use the first person's own words? That's crazy? Journalists get threats all the time. You just made my point on why it's more nuanced that this author engaged and was offered a chance to re-write.
> You just made my point on why it's more nuanced that this author engaged…
As the article clearly explains, the author replied ("engaged") without knowing why his interlocutors were interested in the minor details of the story.
His initial interlocutor ("Aviv") seemed to be engaging in good faith: "Alternatively, if you have information that it was indeed a full missile that was not intercepted, I would be glad to be corrected."
The author was naturally interested in getting the story right, and wanted to understand what his interlocutors might know about it, how they might be misunderstanding it, or why it might be so important to them.
> … and was offered a chance to re-write.
Do you truly believe that an "offer" to rewrite a story in a way that the author believes to be inaccurate—accompanied by death threats—is an important "nuance" that must be conveyed in the headline of a posting about this?
That's wild.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#757Earlier quoted context omitted.
Much like Marx, who had a lot of very insightful observations. Whether what was done in his name is or isn't directly attributable to his writings is somewhat academic. That has taken on a life of its own, and overshadowed all his other ideas. It has also certainly made talking about class in America very difficult.
Very good comparison. I do have more respect for Marx, the modern concept of life/work balance owes much to his concept of estranged labor ("Life itself appears only as a means to life"), as I haven't had to live in a society afflicted by his excesses and misappropriations, unlike the case of Adam Smith.
Adam Smith mentions something similar as well. He talks about how the worker's attachment to the work is different when he's working in a super specialised part of a production process rather than making the whole product like an artisan.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#758As someone generally against gambling, I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. The issue of bribing/threatening a sports player to throw a game has existed for over a century. It's not a new problem. The only thing special about Polymarket is the expansion of surface area. My preferred solution would be to just ban it all, or…
Banning it sends it underground into the hands of organised crime, which will still have access to modern technology.
There's going to be a net loss, but it's probably better to regulate it than have another war on drugs.
Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
#759Earlier quoted context omitted.
Much like Marx, who had a lot of very insightful observations. Whether what was done in his name is or isn't directly attributable to his writings is somewhat academic. That has taken on a life of its own, and overshadowed all his other ideas. It has also certainly made talking about class in America very difficult.
Very good comparison. I do have more respect for Marx, the modern concept of life/work balance owes much to his concept of estranged labor ("Life itself appears only as a means to life"), as I haven't had to live in a society afflicted by his excesses and misappropriations, unlike the case of Adam Smith.
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