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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#851

Post by throwaway2037 »

HWR_14 wrote: post #844
throwaway2037 wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only major cliff will be Elons shares Do you really think he would see a large portion of his shares on his unlock date? If so, why? What would he do with the capital?

I don't think he'll sell a large portion of his shares. My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares. Because everyone else will be able to sell some of their shares in regular intervals.

    > My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares.
Fair point and well-stated.

Another thing that is special about Musk's "vesting cliff": He has the longest in modern history: one full year. I cannot think of any other IPO in the last 10 years where the founder had such a strict/long vesting cliff. While I think the "super shares" (with 10x voting rights) are bullshit, I do think the very long vesting cliff is a good sign.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#852

Post by HWR_14 »

hliyan wrote: post #471
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

6. Pension funds tend not to exclusively hold index funds. Individual retail investors do in their 401ks or personally. Pension funds tend to be fairly sophisticated and can easily insulate themselves from SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic if they want either by owning index funds and shorting the other companies or by not purchasing the stock. Also, pension funds are immune to (9) as taxes are handled differently for them.

7. ETF managers that track an index aren't allowed to put discretion into what they buy. They offer much lower fees because they don't have to do any thinking, just executing on an algorithm.

8. SpaceX servicing the X/Twitter debt isn't really a question. The total amount of debt is equal to about one year of revenue at the moment, and it's under 3% of the expected market cap of SpaceX. It's less than a third of what SpaceX's IPO is expected to generate selling new shares to the public. It's a non-issue. On the other hand, the fees the banks will get for the IPO could easily convince them to support the rules waivers.

9. This is true of some passive investors. It is not true of pension funds (which are usually not passive) or 401ks or other tax-advantaged retirement accounts. It is likely to be partly true for any individual depending on how much of their assets is in a tax-advantaged account vs a regular account.

10. Yes to Texas. It seems like the arbitration part is likely to be true (SpaceX is certainly claiming it in the prospectus), but there is not the certainty of having a long history of litigation.

Returning to 2+3: The rolling up of all other private Musk companies into SpaceX certainly impacted the investors in those companies, and how much Musk owns vs other people. But the equity adjustments there would be interesting, not the debt.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#853

Post by reducesuffering »

deadbabe wrote: post #824
rc_mob wrote: post #801

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Warning to readers-- do not take stock advice from random comments on the internet

It’s not a random comment, it’s a comment from Hackernews which is filled with smart people who are tapped deep into these industries.

So you'll be buying if it's at $5T market cap then? Because if not, you agree it's a matter of how much it's worth to pay for the wildly different ranges of future growth.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#854

Post by gigatexal »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

The rules built to protect passive investors: 1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived. 2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15. 3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5. All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing."

Which really really sucks. We all see Trump whoring out the whitehouse for his trailer park presidency. But I didn’t anticipate the markets kowtowing like this. lol bankers gonna be bankers tho nvm

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#855

Post by MagicMoonlight »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #809

At least on SpaceX the float is really low. The Market only needs to "swallow" ~$100Bn in volume of shares (across the 3), which the NYSE does _daily_. the really interesting thing will be how much will other stocks go down because the passive dollars are chasing the new shares and have to sell to rebalance?

If we’re going to have a Great Depression, this will be the trigger.

Every single fund autodumps billions in shares and is forced to buy slop. The dumping triggers the algorithm traders who dump. The dumping triggers manual traders to dump. The crashing causes retail to dump. Everyone dumps their treasuries and gold because they’re both crashing and they want cash.

And there’s no capability to raise money in any western country, because everyone is already loaded up to pay welfare bills.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#856

Post by [deleted] »

snapcaster wrote: post #834
Rover222 wrote: post #758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how dare you come in with rationality in the face of ELON BAD

It's still extremely corrupt, and done to benefit a very small group of people. Dismissing the criticism like this is directly against the rules and spirit of hackernews to assume good faith

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#857

Post by MagicMoonlight »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #43
bunderbunder wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

No new models. Same janky slop but with a bunch of RL and benchmark cheating. A pretend future model which is just the current model but with a longer COT and gated away.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#858

Post by sharts »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #119
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

Do those help starving or homeless people? I don’t think so.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#859

Post by MagicMoonlight »

bunderbunder wrote: post #33
aurareturn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

If you thought your company was going to develop AGI you wouldn’t sell a single share. You’d be a fool. It’s like selling your straight flush.
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