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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#851

Post by Jerrrrrrrry »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #843
bluGill wrote: post #779

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are ample indepentant sources for that estimate. We don't know an exact number but we know it is close to that.

To be charitable, it is prima facie weird that that this seems to be the one thing we do know for sure. Literally every other detail here seems to be trapped in a black box or uncertainty, except for this. First the US blew up all the nuclear last year, then it turns they were days away. They were out of missiles a week ago, and then they werent at all. We were so sure about "the appetite for rebellion" among the peo…

Obviously its a lie.

But making outrageous claims then replying with " why are you defending Iran " is the gimmick.

Its like a psyop meme mash-up of reddit arguments, ad infinitum

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#852

Post by wat10000 »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Underestimation requires estimation. There was no thought put into the decision to start this war. These are people who have thoroughly bought into their own propaganda. Can the US win a war against Iran? The answer is “America, fuck yeah.” They think we’re omnipotent and literally favored by their god. They think the reason we’ve had military problems in the past is because lefty bedwetters insist on stupid rules like “no bombing schools.” You’ve put more thought into this operation in this comment than our top leadership has.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#853

Post by rustyhancock »

somat wrote: post #293
rustyhancock wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point being made is that before Iranian drone doctrine (they were the originators of the long range drones, the FPV drones and sea drone which have dominated the Ukraine way too). A US CSG could simply sit in the Hormuz strait shoot down any incoming missiles and keep it open. Right now the US has 3 CSG in the middle east and nearly 50000 troops. After weeks of intensive bombing the strait remains closed…

Quick, what's the difference between a suicide drone and a guided missile?

It's a pretty fun categorization task but guided missile is too broad that could include rocket artillery!

Let's say cruise missiles Vs suicide drone.

The factors that make it a guided missile are presence of a rocket motor (or even turbine).

Suicide drones like the ones were talking about use piston motors.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#854

Post by Ajedi32 »

curiousElf wrote: post #474

Must be nice for western arm chair commentators to discuss this without once feeling the consequences of the actions of their elected government. Where I live - we face a severe shortage of LPG fuel due to this. Quite a few restaurants have shut down temporarily. Migrant workers around the parts who have no access to a kitchen because they live in tiny quarters with a bedding and a common toilet are struggling to fin…

Blocking the strait is Iran's doing, not the US's.

The US attacked them yes, but they were the ones who responded by threatening to blow up the ships of innocent third parties. They couldn't hurt the US, so they decided to hurt you instead.

Why the world is tolerating this behavior as if it's a legitimate strategy and blaming it on the US is beyond me.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#855

Post by zimpenfish »

tda wrote: post #765
zimpenfish wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. According to [0], in 2025 Iran had 86M people. Ukraine had 29M (~33%), Germany (highest in Europe) had 83M (~96%, uh?), Iraq had 46M (~53%), and Russia had 146M (~168% / ~59% reversed). Wildly, wildly wrong about Germany but not too far off the rest[1]. [0] https://en.wiki…

I think the comparisons were referring to land area, but I agree this is not that clear from from the comment

I don't think they can be because "About 2/3 of Russia" -> Iran is (according to [0]) about 636k mi^2 whilst Russia is 6600k mi^2 or just over 10x the area.

(Iran is 4.5x the land area of Germany, 2.7x Ukraine, 3.7x Iraq - sure "2x" works but it's out enough that it doesn't fit with the "land area" claim.)

Also Denmark is in Europe and has a land area (including Greenland) 1.3x that of Iran which strictly breaks the "more than any country in Europe" claim.

In summary, if it's about land area, it's absolute gibberish. If it's about population, it's mostly accurate.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#856

Post by cucumber3732842 »

jacquesm wrote: post #699
decimalenough wrote: post #688

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hijackers were Saudi nationals, but the operation was in no way sponsored by the Saudi state, which is a staunch US ally. Which is why the US proceeded to (attempt to) flatten Afghanistan instead.

> Which is why the US proceeded to (attempt to) flatten Afghanistan instead. It seems to have made things better for the Taliban.

The current Taliban are an almost completely different organization despite there being continuity from then to now. A good comparison point is the church of England in 1520 vs 1620.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#857

Post by PKop »

integricho wrote: post #535
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

How is this not just common sense? Why would we care more about foreigners' interests than our own? You're trying to apply a moral frame to a discussion of self interest and geopolitics. "The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must".

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#858

Post by silverdrake11 »

fny wrote: post #747
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup.…

Forget the guns, they don't even have internet access. How can they coordinate without internet? Source: NetBlocks

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#859

Post by NickC25 »

fny wrote: post #747
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup.…

This. It also fails to understand that the vast majority of the Iranians that are capable of change have actively left over the rule of the regime - that's why there are huge Persian diasporas in LA, Paris, London, NYC, etc. Those who have the money or smarts to leave, do so.

Also, a good majority of Iranian people might despise the regime, but also have long enough memories (or their parents do) of what happened the last time the West tried to intervene in their internal affairs.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#860

Post by ghywertelling »

jacquesm wrote: post #702
ghywertelling wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

James Cameron in Avatar: Fire and Ash makes fun of these Big Picture guys (so called ThinkTank people) towards the end.

That's a movie. This is about reality.

ThinkTank guys have been around since centuries. This movie was released in Dec 2025. Do you think there could be a causal link? Art imitates life.
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