Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not irrational, but it's a similar concern to things like lead poisoning (similar because you cannot see it, and the effects are long term). Like with any risk, there should be appropriate and proportional risk mitigation strategies put in place. Current strategies are outsized compared to the risk. The anti-nuclear environmental movement will go down in history as one of the biggest own goals. If nuclear power…
> If nuclear power had have had continued investment into engineering improvements, the world would be in a much better place WRT climate change. Thats the thing though, its already been the titanic. People have seen the ship sink, and the promised engineering improvements didn't make up for the fact that it was not only an engineering problem but a human one. Some human somewhere is going to fail the system catastro…
Jimmy Carter has died
841–850 of 879 posts
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#842Earlier quoted context omitted.
The President has immense economic power, more than any other person in the US. One example is the ability to levy tariffs at a whim, make and break and alter trade treaties, appoint various economic players such as fed reserve members, and a host of other actions. What single person do you think has greater power?
Given current history, the Feds I guess. President is powerful, but he can't just dig an economy out of recession (which seems to be the times when we have huge swings, for the sake of change). Even if he could, the methods are so unpopular that you basically doom your campaign. Only a lame duck could afford that. That's a part of why the Feds levy a lot of independence. In this case, what the people want isn't alway…
Several of the powers I listed above for the President are absolute (well, up to impeachment, but I doubt any President would be impeached for trade war tanking of the economy.). There are many more powers a President can invoke, such as nationalizing industries, seizing production, halting trade, all under various War Powers Acts, which the President alone can invoke. Of course after the fact Congress has some oversight, but not much.
Last Trump term he declared all sorts of things were national security issues then applied tariffs, despite those powers never being used as ham handedly as he did. I suspect we’ll see more of these uses soon.
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#843Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, back to my original point that the challenges are political in nature. Nuclear has one of the lowest mortality rates per megawatt hour. It would be even better if only modern reactor designs were considered. https://www.statista.com/statistics/494425/death-rate-worldw...
But also the highest potential for mass disaster. Even the so-called "safe" designs like pebble bed reactors have had issues with dust from the pebbles grinding against each other.
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#844Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Thanks for sharing. I guess I never thought of anti-Israel or being pro-Israel and also pro-two-state-solution. There are fewer and fewer who balance both positions. A generation ago, Israel was working towards a two-state solution. I think even in 2017, a majority of Israelis supported a two-state solution in polls. > Israel is hostile to Palestinians as Palestinians are to Israelis. The killing of many people dur…
I have been pretty reasonable with you, and many times taken what you said and thought about them considerably. You need to also come to this with good faith. Things like > I agree that there's a list of supposed reasons, but I think they're being considerably blown out of proportion Are not in good faith, imo. People whose loved ones die, who see killing in the name of hatred, on both sides, are not blowing their is…
Thank you, I appreciate your coming at this in good faith. I don't believe I'm acting otherwise, so I'm sad to hear that's what you think. I believe we have real disagreements, though we probably agree far more than we disagree.
The reasons I engage in these debates are 1) to learn, 2) to give an Israeli, albeit leftist-Israeli, perspective, something I think is very lacking in discussions about Israel, which is sad - both because it makes things uninformed, but also because IMO, the best chance we have of arriving at peace is via Israeli leftists and peace-activists. I do sometimes argue a more standard-Israeli POV than my personal opinions, because I believe it's valuable to understand it.
I'll try to tackle your specific points. I'll attempt to be as inclusive of all points of view as I can, but please also keep in mind that we might actually disagree about things - don't just assume I'm talking in bad faith. Sorry, this comment will be a bit long.
First, let me lay outright my main point of disagreement with you, IMO - I think you're coming at this from an outsider, "both sides" perspective, where you believe "Israelis" have a POV, "Palestinians" have a POV, both have reasonable points and are roughly equally valid, the truth is somewhere in the middle, and the way to arrive at peace is by somehow squaring the circle and giving both sides what they want.
I believe that is, roughly speaking, wrong.
I'm an Israeli Jew, so obviously I'm biased. That said, I've always been far more sympathetic to the Palestinians than most Israelis. I've spent the time since the war trying to learn a lot more about the history of Israel and Palestine, the history of the conflict, etc. I'm still far more sympathetic to the Palestinian side than most, even more so that I was before. In fact, I think Israel has behaved morally badly for the last 15 years by stopping all work towards peace (both not trying to seek peace, and actively blocking paths towards peace).
That all said, I still believe that, while the "pro-Israeli" narrative is obviously not completely accurate and paints Israelis more nicely than it should, it's still more accurate than the "pro-Palestinian" narrative. Both the history - the common "Jews came in and stole the land, the Palestinians should get all of it back" has some truth to it, but is far more wrong than it is right, for a lot of reasons.
More importantly, I believe it really is true that the main reason there was no peace is that the Palestinians refuse to live side-by-side with Israel, and continue to refuse it. There could've been peace many times (as Israel has done with other countries) if Palestinians had acted differently. That is a failure of the Palestinian narrative and the Palestinian leadership - which is continuing to push the completely false idea that if they just tried a bit harder, they'd convince the Israelis to pack up and leave Israel.
OK, I'll try to address specific points:
> Things like
> > I agree that there's a list of supposed reasons, but I think they're being considerably blown out of proportion
> Are not in good faith, imo. People whose loved ones die, who see killing in the name of hatred, on both sides, are not blowing their issues out of proportion. The expansion of settlements isn't a "blown out of proportion" reason to doubt Israeli commitment to peace any more than terrorism is a reason to doubt Palestinian commitment to peace. Both lead to horrific and disturbing killings and massacres with state (or quasi-state) backing.
Look, I'm not saying that someone who lost a loved one is "blowing it out of proportion" as a reason to be angry at Israel. And I can't imagine the feeling of most Gazans over the horror they've had to suffer over the last year.
I was specifically saying that these things are blown out of proportion as reasons to think that Israel is actively hostile to Palestinians. And indeed, I think your list is inaccurate. You talk about "killing in the name of hatred", and you talk about "horrific massacred with quasi-state backing", which is simply a mistaken interpretation of Israeli actions. Despite the absolutely horrible, terroristic actions of many in the settler movement, there are almost no "massacres" of Palestinians by settlers. Before the war, the vast majority of Palestinians killed weren't "killed in the name of hatred", they were killed in clashes with IDF for security reasons.
You paint a picture of Israel (the state) or of Israeli settlers routinely going around killing Palestinians, and (before the war) this just wasn't true, at all.
About the expansion of settlements - yes, I agree, that's a genuinely valid reason for the Palestinians to doubt Israeli commitment to peace. I think all settlements were and are a horrible idea, and I'd dismantle them all if I could. However, I don't think it's correct to say "well the settlements continued while we're still negotiating so that means the Israelis don't really want peace". Many of these "settlements" are a dozen people going in and "claiming" some land no one is on. Again, I get where this is coming from, and it's a totally valid criticism of Israel - but isn't real proof that Israel is "not serious".
> When you say
> > it's not even close to being true that they got nothing from it. Those accords literally created the Palestinian Authority, which is the official governing body of the Palestinians
> You're not reading what I'm writing with good faith, you're preparing a counter. I didn't say nothing. I said "basically nothing" because a government can be formed without Israeli agreement. They did not see an end to settlements. They did not see Israel commit to stopping its authority over Palestine, instead they rather cemented it against a "state" they knew had no equivalent defense against such. This is all after they made very big concessions and continued to do so even after the talks failed.
Again, I honestly disagree, and think you are misreading history here.
It's not true that "they could just setup a government", because Israel was militarily ruling the West Bank and Gaza at the time, and acted as the government.
After the accords, not only did the PA get official recognition, they got governmental control of most of the Palestinians. They don't have Israeli army presence within their cities, mostly, and the day-to-day lives of a majority of Palestinians doesn't involve any interaction with Israel.
It's just not accurate to say that Israel didn't commit to stopping its authority over Palestine, because the authority that Israel had over the lives of most Palestinians changed drastically, and is far lower.
Palestinians in the West Bank are mostly living without any interaction with Israel or Israelis, if they don't want it. They can travel the world at will via Jordan. Israel still exerts some authority, and it's not a truly independent state, but you're making it seem like the accords changed literally nothing.
Btw, I'll take a moment to criticize the Israeli POV here too - many Israeli pretend that Israel also gained nothing from these accords. Despite the fact that the Palestinians officially recognized Israel, and officially relinquished 80% of their claims on land (by agreeing to a future state only existing on roughly the '67 borders). Most Israelis don't think they had any valid claim to the rest of the land, but nevertheless, they do think they had a claim to it, and relinquished it. And the PA, for all its very massive faults, has worked in security coordination with Israel ever since.
This is why this subject is so touchy for me - I believe that both Israelis and Palestinians think the accords and peace talks didn't go anywhere or yield anything, making both sides dig in and say "there's no point in talking to the other side". And I think they're both wrong, because actually, the Oslo accords, despite eventually leading to failure of future peace talks, actually achieved some things that were real, important, and have held to this day.
I think it's really important to recognize the successes and build on them, and understand the failures and what led to them, because that's how we'll arrive at peace.
[Continued in next reply]
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#845Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have been pretty reasonable with you, and many times taken what you said and thought about them considerably. You need to also come to this with good faith. Things like > I agree that there's a list of supposed reasons, but I think they're being considerably blown out of proportion Are not in good faith, imo. People whose loved ones die, who see killing in the name of hatred, on both sides, are not blowing their is…
> I have been pretty reasonable with you, and many times taken what you said and thought about them considerably. You need to also come to this with good faith. Thank you, I appreciate your coming at this in good faith. I don't believe I'm acting otherwise, so I'm sad to hear that's what you think. I believe we have real disagreements, though we probably agree far more than we disagree. The reasons I engage in these…
> You can't possibly believe this. Every side had to compromise quite a lot. Israel had to give in to some right of return, and Palestine had to give in to having to tell some refugees they would never return to their ancestral lands. Palestinians had to accept a broken up West Bank despite the occupation and settlement of the area being illegal, and they were willing to do so. You know the talks were not Israel giving everything the Palestinians wanted to them and them refusing over minor details. Why would the stronger nation, negotiating with their strongest ally orchestrating the talks, do that?
I do believe it. Not only that, I'll say something I first heard from an Israeli-Palestinian peace activist I admire - if you went up to a random Palestinian and told them that there was a deal on the table that gave them 99% of the land they wanted (some via land swaps), gave them sovereignty over half of Jerusalem, and a few other conditions I don't recall - they'd be shocked that this was on the table and shocked it wasn't accepted.
Look, there is a real matter of what your starting position going in. From the Palestinian side, if their starting position is "we should get all the land of Israel, all Jews should be gone from here", then yes, they "compromise" a lot by giving up on 80% of the land. Very few Israelis consider this a valid claim though.
The offers that were on the table in e.g. the Clinton Parameters included almost everything the Palestinians supposedly wanted in terms of land. Yes, there was the issue of Jerusalem, though a later offer included that. There was the issue of a right of return, which is also tricky.
But I've read multiple accounts of the negotiations by now. There are dissenting voices, but many of the people involved that I've read, mostly Israelis and Americans - including some that were fairly critical of the Israeli side - agree that a very good offer was put on the table.
What is undeniable, historically, is that the Palestinians walked away from the negotiations. They refused all Israeli offers, and eventually ended the negotiations, never offering a counter-offer. They didn't say "well your compromise on issue X is fine, but we need you to compromise more on issue Y", they said "no, this doesn't work for us, bye".
It is just true that there would be peace and a Palestinian state today, had Arafat said "yes" and accepted something that, as far as anyone knows, gave them 99% of what they say they wanted.
And yes, some say Arafat couldn't agree, because there is no way any Palestinian leader would give up the right of return. But then all of this again comes down to a single, undeniable issue - the Palestinians refuse to give up on the idea of returning to all the land and (depending on how it's implemented), effectively dismantling Israel, something Israel will simply never agree to.
> > The American left-wing reading of the situation is simply wrong
> Why is it wrong? Israel is a security threat to Palestinians right now and for the past many years. If you are a Palestinian, especially led by a government who pursued peace with Israel (the PA), you are at risk to have had your land taken by settlers, your family killed by the same settlers, and your home stolen and "legalized" by Israel after it's stolen.
Because this "risk" affects 0.01% of the population? At least pre-October 7th? As I said before, the vast majority of Palestinians living under the PA are living day to day in cities in a pretty normal way, without any interaction with Israelis.
And you keep saying "families killed by the same settlers", how many Palestinians do you think have been killed by settlers, exactly? There are a few horrible acts of violence, but definitely not big numbers. And the majority of Palestinians killed by the IDF are terrorists - I just looked up the stat for 2022, and it was 142 Palestinians from the WB killed by Israel security forces, with 80-ish of them militants or terrorists shot after they shot/stabbed someone. Now, any civilian killed is a tragedy, and I definitely don't want to downplay this; but this is a picture of clashes between terrorists and security forces, than of "the average Palestinian has to live in fear of being gunned down by security forces or settlers".
That's why I call this a misreading of the situation. It's like hearing about the many tragic school shooting in the US, and thinking that therefore people must be terrified every day of going to school or going in with bulletproof vests or something. It's simply a misundersatnding of the scope and the numbers here.
Of course - let's be super clear here - I pulled up 2022 for a reason. All of this has gotten much worse since October 7th in the WB. Another tragic consequence of Hamas's terrible actions.
(Worth noting that last week, there was a giant clash between the PA and Hamas/Islamic Jihad in the WB, with the PA trying to drive them out.)
> You have constantly spent time trying to paint Palestinians as fundamentally evil (but earlier you decried anyone doing that to you), but you're missing the point that what would happen in hypothetical scenarios, and what Palestinians "want" doesn't matter. It doesn't change the reality on the ground, and it doesn't change the fact that when two hostile nations are next to each other, only deterrence can lead to peace.
I absolutely do not think that Palestinians are fundamentally evil, and I really don't think I implied that.
I think the average Palestinian is wrong about the history, and holds a narrative that is simply wrong - that with enough violence, Israelis can be convinced to "go back to Europe". This is just wrong on many levels, and tragically wrong - because it means that "just a bit more violence" is what is needed.
But it is 100% true that Hamas wants to destroy all of Israel. It's not projection - they've said so many, many times, and when they temporarily gained the power to kill Israelis by invading Israel, they did so brutally.
It's not a hypothetical scneario - if there were to be a Palestinian state that is able to arm itself for real, and it were run by Hamas - I have no reason to think I wouldn't be dead as soon as they could launch an attack.
Remember - Israel completely left Gaza, pulled all settlers and all security forces from Gaza, and the result was them electing Hamas, and Hamas shooting rockets at Israelis every day.
And the Israeli response here wasn't to go back in or dismantle Hamas - it was to build defensive weapons so that the rockets kill only a few people, instead of being super dangerous.
I strenuosly disagree with you that "only deterrence can lead to peace". The path to peace was really simple and can be so again - the Palestinians stop violence towards Israel and agree to live in peace with Israel as a neighboring state. That's really all it would take. (Well, nowadays it would take that, plus a new Israeli government, plus convincing Israelis to actually trust the Palestinians again).
> Never has there ever been any peace process that even hinted that the Palestinians would get "what they want" according to you (because according to you it's the death of all Israelis), so it's a moot point to bring up.
Yes, which is why I think that fundemantally, the Palestinians have to change what they want for there to be peace! My point exactly.
> > What if we asked what the Israelis want according to polling? Lots of polling shows that they believe Palestinians should be stateless forever or be deported to other countries. But again, that has never been offered in any peace process ever.
Even as little as a few years ago, >50% of Israelis agreed with the idea of a two state solution. It's gotten lower over time, and I'm sure it polls very low right now (so probably around 30-40%, I don't remember offhand).
> Stick to reality and what's actually on the table politically, and try to answer in good faith.
Look, if you don't believe me, just listen to one of the many Palestinian peace activists I admire. Peace can be reached, but it will happen when both sides simply agree to live side by side with each other in peace. The 15 million people who live on this tiny patch of land need to all accept one thing - none of them is going anywhere! If both sides internalize this at the same time, the solution is incredibly obvious - just share the friggin' land!
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#846Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Thanks for sharing. I guess I never thought of anti-Israel or being pro-Israel and also pro-two-state-solution. There are fewer and fewer who balance both positions. A generation ago, Israel was working towards a two-state solution. I think even in 2017, a majority of Israelis supported a two-state solution in polls. > Israel is hostile to Palestinians as Palestinians are to Israelis. The killing of many people dur…
> A generation ago, Israel was working towards a two-state solution. Yes, very briefly, until Netanyahu’s faction murdered Yitzhak Rabin, and not since. > I think even in 2017, a majority of Israelis supported a two-state solution in polls. There is a very big difference between a majority of a population preferring something in polls and the government representing that population working toward it (cf., universal s…
> Yes, very briefly, until Netanyahu’s faction murdered Yitzhak Rabin, and not since.
I think we've talked about this before?
This is just wrong. Firstly, I wouldn't call them Netanyahu's faction.
More importantly, Israel then elected Ehud Barak, who pursued peace, then Sharon was incredibly popular for doing the Gaza disengagement (not in pursuit of peace, of course, but in effect leaving Gaza completely and giving it over to the Palestinians). Then Israel elected Olmert, who vowed to continue with peace and disengagement. And finally, giving a majority to Livni who also wanted to continue down this line, but unfortunately wasn't able to build a coalition, so Netanyahu (who had, IIRC, one seat less than her) became PM.
As for the rest of your comment, I'm not sure where you stand here - does the PA represent the Palestinians? Doesn't it? Should we believe that Hamas is more representative, which is true by polls in the WB (though polls in Gaza have them at 5%! nowadays).
If Hamas truly represents the Palestinians, do you think there's any chance for peace? Given that Hamas's goals are basically the dismantling of Israel?
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#847Earlier quoted context omitted.
> So we're all on the same page then. I never said Israel shouldn't exist, and your whole history lesson before (as much as you're leaving out) doesn't really matter. Yes, I believe we are. I kind of have to be pro-actively defensive about the history, because lots of other people (even in this very thread) express exactly that - that Israel shouldn't exist, or that Israelis are uniquely evil, or something. > The eth…
> it's not any more an ethnostate than France is an "ethnostate" for the French. It is moreso one because there are French citizenship standards for people currently wanting to become citizens not based on ethnicity. And people indigenous to France not of the preferred ethnicity are not forced to live outside the country with no right to citizenship. The need for Israel to be majority Jewish requires that Palestinian…
It's better, IMO, to just think of Israel as a country that, like any other country, defined its citizens in some way when it was founded, as France defines its citizens as French. And that's pretty much it, nowadays it is largely similar to other countries. Just as France wouldn't want agree to an influx of a 10 million immigrants gaining French citizenship, neither would Israel agree to accepting many non-citizens and turning them into citizens. That is true of almost every country on Earth - very few have completely open paths to citizenship.
> It is moreso one because there are French citizenship standards for people currently wanting to become citizens not based on ethnicity.
As there are in Israel. Firstly, 20% of Israel is not ethnically Jewish. Secondly, there are paths to citizenship for non-Jews. The only unique thing in Israel is that if you are Jewish, you have an easy path to citizenship - but that is literally the same as Israel just having defined that all Jews are effectively Israeli citizens, when it was founded. Nothing special about that.
> And people indigenous to France not of the preferred ethnicity are not forced to live outside the country with no right to citizenship.
Umm, I'm not sure there's quite an analagous situation here. But if a group that had lived in France a hundred years ago but had moved somewhere else now wanted French citizenship, they wouldn't just get it.
> The need for Israel to be majority Jewish requires that Palestinians cannot become citizens of Israel, even though their lives are completely controlled by the polity of Israel, by necessity, according to the Israeli government, for security reasons.
Well we've talked about this "complete control" elsewhere, but to focus on the citizenship question - yes, Israel would not agree to double its voting population with people who are not part of the country and have very different values/etc, just as no other country would.
And btw, Palestinians who stayed in the land during the war did become Israeli citizens, hence Israel having a 20% minority Palestinians population. And IIRC, Palestinians living in Jerusalem are able to become Israeli citizens, though few choose to do so.
Again, take out the historical back and forth aside - this is the same as any other country. Dozens of countries came into being in the last 70 years, all of them defined their citizens in some way, often some combination of culture/ethnicity, and none of them would agree to just double their size with new citizens.
I think the rest of your comment I answered in great detail in my other comments.
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#848Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A generation ago, Israel was working towards a two-state solution. Yes, very briefly, until Netanyahu’s faction murdered Yitzhak Rabin, and not since. > I think even in 2017, a majority of Israelis supported a two-state solution in polls. There is a very big difference between a majority of a population preferring something in polls and the government representing that population working toward it (cf., universal s…
> > A generation ago, Israel was working towards a two-state solution. > Yes, very briefly, until Netanyahu’s faction murdered Yitzhak Rabin, and not since. I think we've talked about this before? This is just wrong. Firstly, I wouldn't call them Netanyahu's faction. More importantly, Israel then elected Ehud Barak, who pursued peace, then Sharon was incredibly popular for doing the Gaza disengagement (not in pursuit…
De jure, yes.
De facto, not particularly, and they are quite conscious of that, and actively seeking to correct it but actively prevented by Israel whose strategy to mitigate international pressure for peace (and particularly to avoid meaningful US pressure for peace) centers on avoiding having any entity that effectively represents the Palestinian people.
> Should we believe that Hamas is more representative
It is more representative of Gazans a couple decades ago when the last elections were held (whereas the PA is of WB Palestinians at the same time.) It probably is less interested in fixing the problem (certainly its Iranian sponsors are), but even so it has on more than one occasion reached deals with the Fatah-led PA on new elections throughout the occupied territories for a new PA government, but those agreements went nowhere because Israel blocked implementation.
> If Hamas truly represents the Palestinians, do you think there's any chance for peace?
There's no chance for peace with the current Israeli regime, at least as long as it has unshakable support from the US; Hamas is a symptom of the problem (one actively fostered to both divide Palestinian opposition and provide a less Western-sympathetic opposition by Israel when they weren't in their momentary orientation toward peace), not its source.
> Given that Hamas's goals are basically the dismantling of Israel?
Peace always requires parties compromising on their goals, largely because they recognize that they are unattainable at acceptable cost. Why both Fatah, Hamas, or the numerous other Palestinian factions might do so is...fairly obvious. Israel, whose goal is no more the destruction of the Palestinian people entirely than Hamas’s is destruction of Israel, has bottomless US support, little effective (though plenty of symbolic) international opposition, and continues to progress (slow over the long term, quite rapid recently) progress towards its goal. Yes, it costs Israeli lives, but those are lives that the Israeli government has been clear that it is willing to sacrifice, not an unacceptable cost.
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#849Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I have been pretty reasonable with you, and many times taken what you said and thought about them considerably. You need to also come to this with good faith. Thank you, I appreciate your coming at this in good faith. I don't believe I'm acting otherwise, so I'm sad to hear that's what you think. I believe we have real disagreements, though we probably agree far more than we disagree. The reasons I engage in these…
> > the later negotiations ended with the Palestinians walking away from deals that gave them almost everything they supposedly wanted > You can't possibly believe this. Every side had to compromise quite a lot. Israel had to give in to some right of return, and Palestine had to give in to having to tell some refugees they would never return to their ancestral lands. Palestinians had to accept a broken up West Bank d…
Re: Jimmy Carter has died
#850Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm amused by the fact that everyone always blames the person who has been explicitly isolated from having any economic power, the president. The electorate just seems to bully the president in this regard.
The President has immense economic power, more than any other person in the US. One example is the ability to levy tariffs at a whim, make and break and alter trade treaties, appoint various economic players such as fed reserve members, and a host of other actions. What single person do you think has greater power?
Tarrifs are a power of congress delegated to the president.