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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#841

Post by Frondo »

tekknik wrote: post #806
Frondo wrote: post #759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is the crux of what drives me mad with these personal anecdotes of struggle. Is this the best we can do as a society, that a few poor people, through work and luck, can become less poor? What's the point of these stories, beyond just sharing one's personal experience? That the society we've got here is the best we can do?

because that drive to pull ones self up is what built the US into what it is today. without that drive what is the point of being more than what you are today? the struggle to be something more is literally the driving factor behind all of existence. the opportunity is out there for most people if they look hard enough. that said there are definitely some who need societal help to pull them out of a rut but it is mos…

What built the US into what it is today was its incredible amount of untapped resources, followed by military dominance and tapping into other countries' resources. Keeping people impoverished was (and is) not necessary for that.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#842

Post by renewiltord »

lisper wrote: post #839
renewiltord wrote: post #837

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you require in order to move from your position?

Evidence, preferably all collected in one place and properly analyzed. Something like this: https://rantt.com/gop-admins-had-38-times-more-criminal-conv...

Ah, that would be a pretty hard task for me to compile. Thank you for being explicit about your standard of evidence!

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#843

Post by klmadfejno »

mrb wrote: post #780
klmadfejno wrote: post #696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sound like Dennis from Always Sunny talking about how girls need to sleep with him if they're alone on a boat because of the implication of what would happen if they refuse, but denying that he actually said anything threatening. > "I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however." Yes, you didn't claim anything. But the implication is clear. When I responded I assumed you meant 20%…

Note that you are confusing me with another user (Filligree) who started the thread and initially threw these "10-20%" figures. Personally I do not believe 10-20% of the world population will die. « I don't know what else I can say other than this is a dumb statement » Not dumb. It's a good approximation, especially because post-pandemic times (after people have regained their jobs, which might take months/years) wil…

You're right, that was another user, rendering most of this moot. I got 3 downvotes, and I don't particularly care if three people disagree with me. Similar opinions expressed elsewhere have gotten more upvotes. Shitty appeal to the people fallacy.

> Not dumb. It's a good approximation, especially because post-pandemic times (after people have regained their jobs, which might take months/years) will be identical to pre-pandemic times with the ONLY difference being that a certain percentage of Americans will have died prematurely. That percentage will directly translate to an economic loss.

This is simply not true. The world does not click back to the state it was with fewer people. Millions of people are now unemployed. Thousands of companies will no longer exist. The lockdown is killing small businesses disproportionately fast and that gap is going to be filled by larger businesses. Larger businesses have fewer local employees. The wealth gap is going to be greatly exacerbated, and this will affect everyone. Supply chains will change, inflation will change, consumer spending habits will change. The economy is going to feel different, and in a large part driven by how long everything takes to restart. x% of people dead meaning x% worse economy is just an irrelevant, naive comment.

I don't really care to debate this further either because... it's not interesting

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#844

Post by coryfklein »

kilroy123 wrote: post #602
stcredzero wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

I completely agree with you, but... How about don't vote in leaders that only care about helping out their rich buddies then? The Scandinavian countries have moved to pay all payrolls to keep people paid during all this madness, instead of just bailing out large debt holders.

Trump was elected on a populist, "drain the swamp" agenda. The public is notoriously bad at predicting which candidate will help the people, and which will "help out their rich buddies."

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#845

Post by coryfklein »

aphextron wrote: post #145
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

For primary school, it's a lot more about the child care than it is about the education. At that age the most important thing is safety and enrichment, something provided equally well (well, probably better) by unschooling. Something all my neighbors seem to be doing right now.

We could come out of this with a generation of kids that have learned better how to play and how to let boredom cultivate creativity. Depends a lot on the home situation though.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#846

Post by coryfklein »

andysandwich wrote: post #840
IkmoIkmo wrote: post #511

It's pretty insane that the S&P500 is higher than it was during October last year, hell even something like 7% higher than it was last year May. There was a post on reddit joking about a guy going into a coma last year after having purchased a share of an S&P500 ETF, waking up today and hearing the news of a global pandemic, people were told to quarantine at home for more than a month, a quarter million people died,…

I know this is bad math but just as an estimation: Fed balance sheet increased about $2T, and Congress spent $2.2T so far with more to come. That's at least 20% of GDP ($20T). Optimistic forecast is that the economy shrinks like 30% of GDP, so that's a 10% net reduction in NOMINAL spending/earnings. SPX is down like 15% from it's previous high. The market seems to expect things to return to normal next year, which is…

Exactly. In 12 months from now stocks may even be worth the roughly same dollars they are today, but the surge in money supply means more dollars chasing the same amount of stock anyway.

The S&P/Gold Spot charts will be the interesting ones to watch over the next few years. While S&P shows consistent 6-7% returns historically, that's valued against the dollar. When you chart it against gold the returns are closer to 3-4%, and there are periods where S&P goes down in value against gold for years at a time.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#847

Post by lisper »

renewiltord wrote: post #842
lisper wrote: post #839

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence, preferably all collected in one place and properly analyzed. Something like this: https://rantt.com/gop-admins-had-38-times-more-criminal-conv...

Ah, that would be a pretty hard task for me to compile. Thank you for being explicit about your standard of evidence!

You don't have to do it yourself. You can find someone else who has done it and give me reference.

But I suspect you will be unable to find someone who has done it because it's simply not true.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#849

Post by lcall »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Life is honestly hard. We can be OK. I have written why, in detail (I hope skimmable/browseable, a tech-simple site: http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854581716.html .

Feedback welcome.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#850

Post by jb775 »

mdszy wrote: post #827
jb775 wrote: post #803

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed valachio's point entirely. Quit being so smug and try to consider things from a different perspective.

>I want to be able to run my business when there is a somewhat dangerous virus running around. This is literally "but what about ME?!???"

They're saying they want the CHOICE to be theirs, not the governments.

There's a fundamental difference between the underlying freedom that facilitates a choice to exist and the topic/behaviors relating to the choice itself.

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