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Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

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Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#831

Post by rchaud »

boringg wrote: post #821
rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

Apples to oranges comparison. The problem set is completely different regarding your doom example of South America.

How? the problem is the same: a need for rapid industrial development to grow the economy. The solutions are the same: government picks winners, which is how an upstart like OpenAI can be paired with a dinosaur like Oracle. The latter's CEO of course being a long time friend of Trump.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#832

Post by FrustratedMonky »

whimsicalism wrote: post #800
rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

this is private capital. yes, we are in an era of big projects and big capital deployment. is that synonymous with centralized autarky? i don’t agree

Is this word being used correctly?

au·tar·ky /ˈôˌtärkē/ noun economic independence or self-sufficiency. "rural community autarchy is a Utopian dream" a country, state, or society which is economically independent. plural noun: autarkies; plural noun: autarchies

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#833

Post by FrustratedMonky »

rchaud wrote: post #819
whimsicalism wrote: post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is private capital. yes, we are in an era of big projects and big capital deployment. is that synonymous with centralized autarky? i don’t agree

And where do you think the socialists of the 60s got hard currency to import machinery from? Borrowing from non-state lenders.

Like every other country. You exchange good or services for currencies from the other countries, and then you can use that currency to buy things from anybody that would take that currency.

There is nothing saying a socialist country can't produce goods and services, and sell them.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#834

Post by pizzathyme »

deknos wrote: post #589

This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues. maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.

I am surprised at the negativity from HN. Their clear goal is to build superintelligence. Listen to any of the interviews with Altman, Demis Hassabis, or Dario Amodei (Anthropic) on the purpose of this. They discuss the roadmaps to unlimited energy, curing disease, farming innovations to feed billions, permanent solutions to climate change, and more.

Does no one on HN believe in this anymore? Isn't this tech startup community meant to be the tip of the spear? We'll find out by 2030 either way.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#835

Post by entropicdrifter »

nmca wrote: post #203
entropicdrifter wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7% is close? In what world is 7% close? If you ran 7% of a mile in 5 minutes, would you claim you were close to running a 5 minute mile?

It’s about 1oom off. In some contexts, one oom is pretty close.

And as we all know, the economy scales exponentially with no real world repercussions /s

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#836

Post by smeeger »

whimsicalism wrote: post #777
smeeger wrote: post #762

Earlier quoted context omitted.

of course. its an arms race by definition so its all a military project. and already one whistleblower was brazenly murdered by our government to protect our horse in this race.

no whistleblower was murdered, ridiculous conspiracy theory

motive and means is a basis for conviction according to the law

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#837

Post by throw-the-towel »

mattlutze wrote: post #726
mppm wrote: post #558

Apart from my general queasiness about the whole AGI scaling business and the power concentration that comes with it, these are the exact four people/entities that I would not want to be at the tip of said power concentration.

Ellison should be nowhere near this: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/09/omnip... The man has the moral system of a private prison and the money to build one.

Do not fall into the trap of anthropomorphizing Larry Ellison.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15886728

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#838

Post by dauhak »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #562
dauhak wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? My sense anecdotally from within the space is yes people are feeling like we most likely have a "straight shot" to AGI now. Progress has been insane over the last few years but there's been this lurking worry around signs that the pre-training scaling paradigm has diminishing returns. What recent outputs like…

> My sense anecdotally from within the space is yes people are feeling like we most likely have a "straight shot" to AGI now My problem with this is that people making this statement are unlikely to be objective. Major players are in fundraising mode, and safety folks are also incentivised to be subjective in their evaluation. Yesterday I repeatedly used OpenAI’s API to summarise a document. The first result looked i…

Yeah obviously motivations are murky and all over the place, no one's free of bias. I'm not taking a strong stance on whether they're right or not or how much of it is motivated reasoning, I just think at least quite a bit is genuine (I'm mainly basing this off researchers I know who have a track record of being very sober and "boring" rather than the flashy Altman types)

To your point, yeah the models still suck in some surprising ways, but again it's that thing of they're the worst they're ever going to be, and I think in particular on the reasoning issue a lot of people are quite excited that RL over CoT is looking really really promising for this.

I agree with your broader point though that I'm not sure how close we are and there's an awful lot of noise right now

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#839

Post by ahmeneeroe-v2 »

rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

Private capital. That detail seems to derail your whole comment.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#840

Post by freedomben »

siva7 wrote: post #729
mattlutze wrote: post #726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ellison should be nowhere near this: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/09/omnip... The man has the moral system of a private prison and the money to build one.

> "Citizens will be on their best behavior because we are constantly recording and reporting everything that's going on," Let's be honest. He isn't wrong. I'd rather live in a society with zero crime than what we have now.

Philosophically I agree, this sounds nice. A bit false dichotomy-ish, but nice.

But if you think about it, an unstated yet necessary prerequisite is that the definition of "crime" must be morally aligned with what is right. If it's not, well then you're living in a dystopia. Imagine a world where slavery is still legal and being a runaway slave is a crime. How do people like Frederick Douglass escape and survive long enough to make a difference?

And that's before we get into the prerequisite that such a state must apply the laws completely evenly with no special tiers based on class, wealth, political connection, celebrity status, etc, which AFAIK has never been done. Given the leadership, it doesn't look like it's goig to happen anytime soon. IMHO I think it's heavily contrary to human nature and just won't be achievable short of altering human nature.

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