Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack • Hacker News Board

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#831

Post by Seanambers » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:09 PM UTC

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Much can be said about the causes and effect (invasion of Ukraine) and Russias motivation. If you look at this with Russian eyes there is much history to give cause. From the promises of no NATO expansion in the 90s, to Russias (perceived) bad treatment by the west. To the Wests unwillingness to accept Russia's need for security (from the russian perspective).

In essence Russia has chosen a Ukrainian hill to fight on, and that hill is no more eastward expansion of western powers/alliances or unions.

The more direct initiation of this conflict was the EU which was to enter into an Association agreement with Ukraine in 2013. When the signing of this agreement didn't go through you had the Euro Maidan protest in Ukraine and the Russian puppet government where thrown out as a result. In response to this Russia backed 2 break out regions in the east of Ukraine and annexed/claimed Crimea with sevastopol(navy base).

So the endgame here, no matter the cost it seems is that Russia defines Ukraine to be in its sphere of influence and will not accept any encroachment by western powers - so Putin is basically saying back off.

Georgia also tried to align itself more towards the west and agreed to become a NATO member and the Russian response was resolute back in 2008 as well.

Obviously there might be a number of other reasons, this is just what I have gathered over the years and I am by no means a expert.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#832

Post by unfocussed_mike » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:10 PM UTC

300bps wrote: post #576

amai wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” He claims that without any proof. This maybe would have been true in the 19th century given the technologies for war and power at that time. But we have the 21st century now. Why should the Ukr…

And Russias GDP is as big as Italy Russia’s GDP is 25% smaller than the U.S. State of Texas. It sounds like a joke but it isn’t. Texas GDP is $2.0 trillion. Russia GDP is $1.48 trillion. Most of Russia’s GDP is selling oil and gas which is one of the reasons Putin is able to do this now. Through higher oil prices he’s amassed a war chest of $631 billion in foreign currency reserves that will enable him to weather san…

Also the Italy comparison doesn't take into account GDP PPP per capita (Italy 44th in the world, Russia 77th and below several former Comecon states) or the extensive difference in the amount of stolen wealth in their respective diasporas.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#833

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:10 PM UTC

mccorrinall wrote: post #818

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Russia sold gas to the EU way below spot prices. Nordstream 2 was in focus because of this. Now that the project is suspended, the EU is importing very expensive Gas from the US. So basically: the USA gets money for gas, and Russia gets the eastern Ukraine. They both get what they want. Enjoy the show.

[deleted]

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#834

Post by judge2020 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:10 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #672

reddog wrote: post #612

Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian. The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS. For historical perspective, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US economy was 7x larger than theirs. At the end of WW2…

> Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian. This is the fact that matters. > The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS. That doesn't matter. Many countries may have larger economies than Russia, but none o…

> but none of them have been willing to translate that into anything that can counter Russia's actions.

It gives perspective to how Russia knows not to mess with anyone with a larger military or economic presence. These countries aren't getting involved because doing so means they have a lot more economic prosperity to lose compared to Russia.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#835

Post by adamsmith143 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:11 PM UTC

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #694

BurningFrog wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

I had this mind as I wrote up my post but didn't mention it because I didn't consider the nuclear option as a serious option. Or maybe I'm just optimistic/delusional. But how would the nuclear option play out? Here I am, a Russian oligarch. I ordered the Ukrainian invasion because I bet that NATO wouldn't intervene because of my nukes. But it turns out I was wrong and NATO is pushing back my invasion. So I fire some…

> But it turns out I was wrong and NATO is pushing back my invasion.

I am a NATO Commander, I order the attack on Russian Troops in Ukraine. Russia retaliates with Nukes and I fire mine back and they fire theirs back on my Home Nation.

Did I profit?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#836

Post by aktau » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:11 PM UTC

it_does_follow wrote: post #781

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

I don't think Russia is going to lose this one. People on HN tend to be in denial about the current state of the world, but I don't think Putin is. We're already starting to see some food shortages across the globe due to climate change, this will only intensify. Together Russia and Ukraine produce 29% of the worlds wheat exports. As climate change worsens food will become as big of a concern as oil. We are also runn…

Putin would pick another target, if he did start launching nukes. France has nuclear weapons.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#837

Post by nikolayasdf123 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:11 PM UTC

mleg wrote: post #729

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no…

No post body was provided.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#838

Post by flavius29663 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:12 PM UTC

dmichulke wrote: post #648

uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Incentives are: - Russia will want to make this war as short as possible. They have their objectives (occupy Donezk and Luhansk + some more, destroy the offensive power of the Ukranian army and destroy the infrastructure needed for reinforcements ) and then declare the thing a success. - The US wants it to go on as long as possible, so they will indirectly intervene by financing and supporting any insurgents.

I hope not, because Ukraine borders several NATO countries, and we don't want that to spill over. So I hope the US won't fund insurgents, they can't win anyway.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#839

Post by adamsmith143 » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:14 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #704

BurningFrog wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

NATO can easily deny Russia using first strike nuclear attack. Without centralised command issuing computerised targeting info, it will be for missile officers own initiative to launch them, fully knowing from what they learned in the military academy that an uncoordinated launch will likely be futile. USA missile defences in Arctic, and North Pacific can guarantee intercept a dozen uncoordinated launches, if what Ra…

>USA missile defences in Arctic, and North Pacific can guarantee intercept a dozen uncoordinated launches, if what Raytheon says is true.

Russia has >6000 Nukes. If most were launched and missile defense systems have a 99% success rate that is still 10s of Nuclear strikes on the US Mainland. This would be the end of the US and likely irradiates large parts of North America...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#840

Post by jacquesm » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 4:17 PM UTC

zx85wes wrote: post #811

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions (by US, Europe, Japan etc rather than NATO) are going to mean Putin supporters can't spend their money in Paris, London, or New York, their companies (and Russia) can't sell bonds on the international money markets, and (possibly in the future) sell oil and gas to the west. If things got nastier then Russia could be possibly be cut off from SWIFT and the rest of the global financial system too.

You think he'd just roll over and surrender if they cut them off from Swift? I doubt it...

That's already off the table:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launch-new-sanctions...