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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#821

Post by tombert »

fsckboy wrote: post #378
tombert wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've hated the idea of Polymarket for about as long as I've known about it. It's one thing when people are betting on how long a speech will be or something, but I really hate the idea of gambling over things that involve the death of people. Things like missile strikes and regime changes involve the deaths of humans and it seems pretty gross to make a game out of that.

you need to learn a little finance, i.e. that subset of economics dealing with financial markets. Markets "crowdsource" values in the face of changing needs, preferences, probability and volatility, and that's an incredibly useful thing. yeah, you can treat investing in markets as a game (fallacy: stock markets are gambling casinos), but people who are serious don't do that, so don't lay the sins of insincerity on ma…

You might have a point with institutional investors, but regular consumers on Polymarket are absolutely just gambling.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#822

Post by margalabargala »

saalweachter wrote: post #808
margalabargala wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The actions people have taken in accordance with sports betting incentives is everything up to and including murder. The moral ideal the parent commenter associates with sports doesn't make that okay. If you have a point to make about how the age of the person being murdered means it's a categorical difference rather than a difference of degree I'll read it.

Just checking that you knew betting on good outcomes was how you incentivized bad ones. Eg, to be rid of a turbulent priest, you'd place a bet that Thomas Becket will live to see the year 1171, which is a "good" outcome to bet on happening.

Glad we're both clear on which one of us missed the other's point...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#824

Post by gzread »

worldsavior wrote: post #369
bhouston wrote: post #94

An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the…

What censorship does Israel do?

I guess for a start they won't let me view this article with a VPN on.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#826

Post by gzread »

jmyeet wrote: post #269
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

I'm wondering how long it's going to take people to see the bigger picture and start connecting the dots. "Prediction markets" (which is just gambling) are not an isolated phenomenon. It's simply a natural step is the financialization of every aspect of our lives and everything that's touched by this gets worse. Can't afford your rent? That's decades of financialization of the housing market, which is just a wealth t…

It's more like the dots aren't connected but they're all the same size and color because that kind of dot is in fashion.

I don't think Polymarket bans consistent winners. You gamble against other users and Polymarket makes the same fee either way.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#827

Post by pavel_lishin »

irq-1 wrote: post #497
gzread wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket runs on Polygon, which, like most blockchains, has public history. If the user wasn't very careful about how they got their money into the system, it traces back to a public cryptocurrency exchange with KYC records.

...so then trace the transfer to each identity? How does knowing the first person in the chain help identify the 2nd and 3rd, etc? What if there are 50 identities and the coin has a dozen origins?

Well, that's why it's called an investigation.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#828

Post by gzread »

abustamam wrote: post #478
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

Someone on HN suggested that prediction markets would be interesting if only politicians were allowed to participate. For example, politician says that this bill will make the economy better (insert tangible metric here). Well Mr politician, put your money where your mouth is. If you indeed believe this is best for your constituents, bet on it, and if you're right, you'll reap the benefits of your legislation. If not…

I do find that to be a fun thought experiment, but HN doesn't seem to agree.

How would you know it was caused by that bill? Maybe politicians should just be paid based on something we want to incentivize, like lower quartile wages.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#829

Post by gzread »

ACCount37 wrote: post #447
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

Cool it with the moral outrage. Even if I did believe that prediction markets are bad, "easily the worst things to grace the internet by far" is such a ridiculous hyperbole that it strains any belief.

There aren't that many things bad on this scale that I can think of.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#830

Post by astrange »

munk-a wrote: post #538
xvector wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket's founder is Shayne Coplan, 27-year old "youngest self-made billionaire" (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) A sane system would just throw him in jail until his illegal betting market implements KYC.

> (why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) Because no ethical person would accumulate a billion dollars. An ethical person would share the wealth they're creating with those around them instead of hording that wealth. What can you do with 100 million that you couldn't do with 10?

Having assets worth X dollars is not the same thing as having X dollars. It means investors are willing to trade you X dollars for the assets.

Those investors don't want to give /you/ money, they want to give the billionaire money.

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