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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#821
post #703

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

>Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily.

We lived once thru this in 1939. NO one will join in to defend Poland. Germany might even make another deal with Russia to "save EU".

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#822
post #252

This development is a tactical prerequisite for besieging or attacking Kyiv. The exclusion zone covers the shortest route to the city from Belarus - the shortest route available to Russian forces. It’s also perhaps a strategic coup for Russia in two ways - but it could also be a boon to Ukraine. The coming days will elucidate which party most profits - probably Russia. Russia’s first strategic gain is simply one of p…

> This development is a tactical prerequisite for besieging or attacking Kyiv. The exclusion zone covers the shortest route to the city from Belarus - the shortest route available to Russian forces. Most probably this + the area being relatively empty makes it easier to pass through. As a slav (balkans), chernobyl to me personally just represents the corruption and totaly failure of communism, where everything has to…

  chernobyl to me personally just represents the corruption and total failure of communism
Thank you for sharing this. It gives some weight and reality to what I claimed above: 'in the Slavic societies of post-Soviet eastern Europe - including Russians themselves - Chernobyl connotes the corruption and failure of the USSR.'

  I really cannot comprehend all the outrage at putin, when all the outraged countries literally have soldiers occupying some other foreign countries right this moment.
With respect, sir, you are being foolish here - in three ways:

First, in thinking that all military occupation - all war - is equally evil. In thinking that America's wars, or American's bases in Germany, can possibly justify this invasion.

Russia's crusade to defeat Hitler was justified (and saved the world). That's true even though they helped with the evil partition of Poland in '39. It's true no matter what.

Second, in thinking that this is a conflict between America and Russia. Russian propaganda is happy to say it is. But the hard facts: Russia has invaded and seeks to annex another Slavic power. America could simply go home and the war would not stop. In fact it probably wouldn't stop until the entire Tsarist-Slavic world had been reconquered, including your Balkan people.

Third, in not being outraged. In fact, I'm angry at you for not being angry!

You sit there, Balkan Slav, in your new democracy, under the EU's economic umbrella, free of the Balkan's once endemic ethnic wars, posting your opinions on the internet with the careless ease of one confidant in their right of free speech, confidant in their democracy.

You haughtily justify Russian invasion with the mention of the Americans wars, which have ended and from which we gained little or nothing - and which were not territorial conquests, as this is.

You don't even imagine that Russia, unresisted, would very soon become interested in the brother Slavs of the Balkans. In you. In your fragile new democracy. Where is your solidarity with the citizens of your fellow democracies? We're in this together.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#823

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MAD was only really feasible when just three countries had nukes. It was abandoned a while back. Russia chose to pursue nuclear supremacy over conventional defense. They have the biggest arsenal, as well as super-nuclear and super-sonic ICBMs to deliver them. Russia is the only country I know that thinks it might actually be able to win a nuclear war.

All ICBMs are supersonic and hypersonic too. What super-nuclear ICBMs are? Anyway, a retaliation strike from the USA would wipe out enough of Russia to end the war in a draw, if we can say so. They only have to remind Putin the common wisdom from all those years of cold war, if any of us attacks we are all toast.

I said they believe, not that I believe it. But then Russia is absolutely massive. They could have hundreds of thousands people leaving deep under ground, ready to emerge and rule earth when the dust clears.

Also, wasn't there some revelation, after the cold war ended, that Russia had known American nuclear codes or positions all along? That would certainly give them some advantage.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#824
post #730
post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

> Talk of Ukraine joining NATO may well have been what triggered this war. There was zero chance Ukraine would have ever been admitted to NATO. Everybody understood that, including Putin and his generals. And while NATO and the U.S. maintained the official position (perhaps better characterized as a non-position) that any country, including Ukraine, remained free to apply to NATO, member states like Germany would hav…

> member states like Germany would have vetoed [Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership]

Why is this often mentioned? What is Germany’s rationale and is this still a certainty? Perhaps these comments were more closely related to Schröder (because gas pipeline) but certainly a different generation now.

edit: France and Germany were the two opposed countries.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#825
post #821
post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

>Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily. We lived once thru this in 1939. NO one will join in to defend Poland. Germany might even make another deal with Russia to "save EU".

Wasn’t the NATO founded in 1949? And doesn’t this imply we haven’t lived thru this, as the conditions of NATO did not yet apply in 1939?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#826
post #730
post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

> Talk of Ukraine joining NATO may well have been what triggered this war. There was zero chance Ukraine would have ever been admitted to NATO. Everybody understood that, including Putin and his generals. And while NATO and the U.S. maintained the official position (perhaps better characterized as a non-position) that any country, including Ukraine, remained free to apply to NATO, member states like Germany would hav…

> Moreover, the last decade of shenanigans from Turkey and then Hungary have soured even the U.S.'s appetite for future NATO admissions of any country outside Western and Central Europe.

This was always the case. Turkey needed to help in Korea (1950) to get into NATO (1952). With annexation of half the Cyprus, and the tensions with Greece and buying NATO-incompatible S400 defense missiles from Russia, it kept being a problem-child. It weirdly remains also the only member which recently had armed conflict against Russia.

It's still a member though because of geopolitics. It's risky business but it has its rewards.

I don't see the same situation in Ukraine.

Disclosure: I'm from Turkey but I despise some of the acts I named above. I won't name which because I still want to go there and see my parents every once in a while.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#827
I think the commenters here relying on a more robust response if Putin invades a NATO country are being overly optimistic. Let's be honest with ourselves and recognize that without the US NATO is no match for Russia. Fragmented, with small and outdated armed forces, the Russian army would quickly roll over any resistance. Can you imagine a Republican president committing US troops to the defence of Lithuania in the current climate? Just look at what Trump is saying right now. If I were a European leader I'd be investing very heavily in an my armed forces right about now. Putin has succeeded in undermining the international order. First, by getting someone like Trump elected and undercutting faith in NATO. Second, by invading neighboring countries and having everyone realize this has no real consequences. It's likely that, unfortunately, the new world order is the old world order. Either a country has the power to defend itself or it doesn't. Other countries can't be relied upon to help.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#828

Russia never ceases to amaze me even after spending half of my life living there. Its massive territory extends over 8 times zones stretching over 2 continents and it has historically been incapable of governing most of it. Everything outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg (and a few other bigger cities) is often neglected and in constant state of poverty. Geopolitical stuff aside, this incessant need to have more la…

Poverty has declined by more than 50% in the last 20 years in Russia. How does this jive with a "constant state of poverty"?

When people use anecdotes like this despite the data, it often just looks to me like bashing of developing economies.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#829
post #703

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

Don't forget, this was also a similar case during WW2 and then Munich agreement happened... It never is as easy - this is stated on paper so we all go to war. Including now broken Minsk agreement...

Just all sad to see that the interests of a few shed blood of many.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#830
post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a…

Yes if Russian forces invade Poland then NATO will defend it. There is no serious doubt about this. The only question is whether NATO would confine their actions to Poland, or escalate the conflict by conducting pre-emptive attacks on other Russian forces outside of Poland.

NATO will sent prayers and weapons while quickly retreating to Germany.
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