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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#611

Post by w0de0 »

unclebucknasty wrote: post #551
calsy wrote: post #542

-

First, it's the West and its media that are clamoring for war, while Russia has no intention of invading. Now that Russia has invaded, the problem is that the media has a simplistic narrative of good guys and bad guys. Striking how much Russian propaganda has made its way onto HN.

Russian propaganda of the past ~decade has become extremely skilled at sounding reasonable to contrarian thinkers, and at fitting in to the broader Western zeitgeist.

RT, less official media - perhaps the FSB itself - now cultivate native intellectuals (hard not to scare-quote that...) with opinions variously: genuinely pro-Putin, generally anti-liberal-world-order, chaotically damaging to the US polity in their demagoguery, or simply convenient for Russia's current goals. Folks like Tucker Carlson and Rep. Steve King.

I mention this because I suspect most of your and mine (I see this too) encounters with Putin's latest obsequious bullshit on American internet fora are not actual progandists, or even consciously anti-democratic folks. They are simply ideological fellow travellers, perhaps devotees of one of Russia's special friends.

In any case, I find this more likely than a secret American underground of RIA Novosti fans, or a vast human farm of cheap enough, yet still impeccably Englished, trolls.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#612

Post by hendler »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability%E2%80%93instability_...

I found this thread on twitter helpful for explaining this issue with MAD

https://twitter.com/ProfTalmadge/status/1496837475901362180

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#613

Post by [deleted] »

btilly wrote: post #597
baybal2 wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cold war high side estimate was 50M if the West lets USSR to expend the whole of its arsenal on USA standing, doing nothing. Recent figures I read were 20M-40M for worst case scenarios. Realistically, a coordinated all in launch is ~1000 warheads, with 400 of them megaton scale in R36 MIRVs from West Siberia. First strike is only possible with computerised launch infrastructure operational. Beheading the command…

According to Congressional testimony from a committee they created to study the problem, a SINGLE nuclear bomb set off to maximize the EMP effect would likely kill about 2/3 of the population of the Continental USA, with possible higher estimates up to 90%. Mostly through slow painful deaths like mass starvation. Why? Because it would knock out most of our cars, electronics, payment systems, farm machinery, and every…

[deleted]

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#614

Post by avazhi »

pkaye wrote: post #215
avazhi wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. The simple fact is that there is no real upside to risking actual war with Russia - that the Russians will dominate the Ukraine while walking away with a bloody nose (in the form of minor troop losses of its own) is a foregone conclusion. Without more, that's a localised conflict that Russia rather hilariously can try…

> America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. People don't want a 'world police' anymore.

I wasn't intending to suggest that America or anybody else should take action or 'police' anything, but I do find the 'all bark, no bite mentality' currently being paraded about by the world's leadership to be, at best, disingenuous and at worst cowardly.

I suppose somebody might ask what I would prefer the US State Department say, and I guess I'd personally want more realpolitik: "Putin's a megalomaniacal piece of shit with nationalist historical aspirations that stretch back to Peter the Great; NATO's contributed to all this to the extent that it's been dick swinging in Eastern Europe for the past 20 years; the Ukrainians should probably just surrender since they're all basically (and historically were) Russian anyway, and they stand no chance of actually resisting, and no other country on Earth is going to risk nuclear war over them."

Not exactly feel good material for a bolded NYT headline, but at least it's honest.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#615

Post by throwawaylinux »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

To start with the people being attacked have to fight back if they don't want to submit.

This is not a guarantee of independence, but nothing ever is that's not a property of MAD. Every civilization including Ukraine is there because they conquered previous people or regimes. You have to at least fight though before you expect anybody else to fight for you.

Afghanistan did it. Against Russia and against USA. With help of course from other interested parties like Pakistan and USA etc but for the most part it wasn't them doing the fighting and dying. If Poland, Germany, and France allowed Russian tanks to drive to the Atlantic without firing a shot then maybe they would.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#616

Post by nradov »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #463
danso wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh? > I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose. Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actua…

The (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a…

Yes if Russian forces invade Poland then NATO will defend it. There is no serious doubt about this. The only question is whether NATO would confine their actions to Poland, or escalate the conflict by conducting pre-emptive attacks on other Russian forces outside of Poland.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#617

Post by pedrosorio »

krisoft wrote: post #539
Aeolun wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only thing you can do when faced with MAD is to completely ignore it and conduct your war as if it didn't exist. Anything else would put you at a severe disadvantage.

So you are proposing that the air force can just start pummeling the air defences around Moscov? Because that would be a viable counter step if not for MAD.

A viable counter step would be to deny Russia air superiority in Ukraine and to attack any troops crossing the border from Belarus, for example. Not to go and attack the capital of Russia.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#618

Post by bluetwo »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #493
bluetwo wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chernobyl is the ultimate dead-man's switch. It needs 24/7 maintenance. Do nothing and it melts down and destroyers the globe.

> Do nothing and it melts down and destroyers the globe. The whole globe? Gonna need a citation for that. It won't be fun for Europe or Russia if it melts down, but destroy the whole globe seems a little hyperbolic.

Yes, a giant cooling system dug underneath the reactor after the accident takes water from a nearby river and pumps it out to a cooling pond where it evaporates. This keeps the concrete from melting and the core contained.

Here is a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency:

https://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/IEM4/29Jan/Voitsekhovy...

(Poor english but good diagrams)

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#619

Post by Retric »

btilly wrote: post #597
baybal2 wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cold war high side estimate was 50M if the West lets USSR to expend the whole of its arsenal on USA standing, doing nothing. Recent figures I read were 20M-40M for worst case scenarios. Realistically, a coordinated all in launch is ~1000 warheads, with 400 of them megaton scale in R36 MIRVs from West Siberia. First strike is only possible with computerised launch infrastructure operational. Beheading the command…

According to Congressional testimony from a committee they created to study the problem, a SINGLE nuclear bomb set off to maximize the EMP effect would likely kill about 2/3 of the population of the Continental USA, with possible higher estimates up to 90%. Mostly through slow painful deaths like mass starvation. Why? Because it would knock out most of our cars, electronics, payment systems, farm machinery, and every…

Those estimates where not from a single nuke. “If the lights stay off for more than a year in this country, the Commission's estimate was the loss of life would run into the tens of millions, perhaps a great deal more.”

Nationwide long term total blackout is unlikely for many reasons.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#620

Post by adolph »

lordnacho wrote: post #477
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

> sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player.

Why has the Ukraine not blown the gas lines?

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