[dead]
AI is slowing down
811–820 of 820 posts
Re: AI is slowing down
#812Re: AI is slowing down
#813Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The studies you are talking about are probably outdated, it's difficult to deny the actual productivity boost of coding agents. Is it? Can you produce any evidence for such a productivity boost?
We previously had a backlog of 2 years of features planned. Now we have no work and are just working on tech debt and planning to get more involved in the product side because they need help getting the developers work to do.
I'm sure all your users would totally agree and will be head over heels about the slop you've pushed on them.
Re: AI is slowing down
#814Earlier quoted context omitted.
5-6 years is wildly optimistic for GPUs in an AI data center Try 1-2: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...
Sure, according to an unnamed "GenAI principal at Alphabet" of whom "We could not verify the name of the person who describes themselves as 'GenAI principal architect at Alphabet' and therefore we cannot 100% trust their claims." But let's run with Deep Layer(tm)'s hot take from 2024, GPUs all die in 2 years, no exceptions*. Poor guy just spent $400,000 on a DGX with 8 B200s, each of those B200s generates a piddly ~$…
You gotta include 50k+ in power plus other expenses. Still looks like an ok return on capital, but you are betting heavily that cost of computing doesn’t fall much.
If token prices fall a bunch then it may not even be worth leaving on, depending on your facility’s relative power, cooling costs.
If we push far into oversupply eventually a bunch of firms building this infrastructure are going to lose out.
Re: AI is slowing down
#815Earlier quoted context omitted.
From what I've seen lately, Ed isn't saying the technology isn't significant. He criticizes the fact that AI companies are dumping this kind of money into it with circular financing deals. If it goes like you say, (GPUs at home) the AI labs will be destroyed, because no one will need the inference capacity they're dumping money into when they can do the decent part at home. From what I've seen he says it's more "not…
Zitron is actually making both of those arguments. And both are equally wrong.
Hahahahahaha. Okay.
Re: AI is slowing down
#816Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is not fair, lets just speak about Inference margins. You are bringing 100 other things to make it more ambgigous. Statement: margins API prices of all models are greater than 10% in Anthropic. Feel free to either agree to what I'm saying or bet otherwise.
1. You can't have a model without training. Training is part of the cost. A model trained 5 years ago is borderline useless. Also models cannot be retrained continuously, we do not have the technology (even if we had it, it would just increase the ongoing operational cost). 2. Rephrasing your statement: At June 2026 prices, profit margins for all Anthropic models are >10%. That claim is super defensive. Serving a mod…
> Even so, fine, I'll take that bet. Anthropic inference prices are still marginally subsdizided. Once they're public they will hike their API prices several times over the next 24 months. Even that might not save them, because when we take all their expenses into account, they will probably need to raise prices 2-3x compared to their June 2026 prices.
Ok lets state the bet like this: 5 months after their IPO, it will be clear that their API prices still have greater than 10% margin.
Re: AI is slowing down
#817Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no substance to the article to tackle. Ed Zitron is a clown that makes seven million dollars a year writing unsubstantiated bullshit on the internet. He has been consistently wrong in every single one of his predictions and will continue predicting the sky is falling, because his content has zero educational value. It is purely a confirmation-bias inducing dopamine hit for the perpetually aggrieved.
Go ahead. Spend all your money on the SpaceX IPO. I always love to see newcomers in Financial Darwin Awards Prize.
?
Re: AI is slowing down
#818AI or AI adoption?
AI in general is not slowing down. New smarter / bigger models popping up, get blocked, new open source models exceed commercial https://x.com/prz_chojecki/status/2065741640635990128?s=20. All is good here.
AI adoption is nowhere near the current capabilities of AI. I think its because of the lack of expertise at companies. Everyone has an opinion but in fact nobody knows how to work with AI. There is neither AI dedicated positions at companies nor AI transformation leaders on the market.
What companies can do in this case? Install Claude Code and wait how things change over time.
Re: AI is slowing down
#819Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is why there is so much interest in space based AI compute. It's not just SpaceX - Google, Anthropic and Nvidia have openly expressed interest If you look at SpaceX plans and ambitions, they hope to deploy massive compute to orbit (multiple Terrawatts, hundreds of thousands of sats). If their ambitions even slightly materialise it would make ground based compute pale in comparison. Whether or not they succeed in…
What is the multiplier in cost for a teraflop of compute in space vs on the ground? 100x? 1,000x? > Whether or not they succeed in their plans is beside the point No, I think that does matter eventually? Maybe for the IPO value?
https://spectrum.ieee.org/orbital-data-centers
> In an interview, McCalip says his initial rough calculations a few years ago suggested that data centers in space would cost in the range of 7 to 10 times more, per gigawatt of capacity, than their terrestrial counterparts. “It just wasn’t practical,” he says. “Not even close.” But when Elon Musk began publicly backing the idea, McCalip revisited the numbers using publicly available information about Starlink’s and Tesla’s technologies and capabilities.
Re: AI is slowing down
#820Ed Zitron speaks to a particular type of angry tech conservative. He’s not speaking truth or exposing anything. He’s the soothing voice the tech nerds of yesterday year are yearning for. The angry polemic that goes on and on and on with cuss words used liberally is just meant to evoke emotion and cathartic resolution to the type of people mentioned above. Not truth. The thing is, there are a lot of people that find c…
I'm collecting many kinds of predictions Ed Zitron made so that you can see for yourself whether he has a good track record. ------- > While complex, generative AI is a technology that probabilistically generates answers, and has no "intelligence." It is inherently limited by its architecture, and in turn can only get "better" in a linear fashion. I see no signs that the transformer-based architecture can do signific…
We've been in a bubble since years. The thing with a bubble is that nobody can time when it will pop... Ed predictions aren't relevant, his analysis and data he discusses are