AI is slowing down

If the performance and accuracy was there, don't you think there would be a market other than memes?

#3 Trillion, or even more, will be achievable. We are at the very beginning of the monetization of AI. It all started with the free Chat GPT, and a few others. Now the standard is $20 a month if you are not using AI tools too much and you don't need anything fancier. Otherwise you need to pay more, like $200 a month.

Unless you are not company and you don't have some "enterprise deal". And you need an enterprise deal, as 1) it guarantees that your (and your customers) data will not be sold to someone else 2) you are scared that your competitor will have such deal and become much more productive.

This is what we have now. What will be the future?

Well, soon, if you want something like financial advice or medical advice or job search/CV polishing you will be told, that your $20/$200 is not covering that, you need to purchase additional model to have that. Will you do that? It depends how much you are desperate to get medical advice or find a job.

Anthropic Mythos is an example. Soon, if you are programmer and you will ask AI Agent to spot a bugs, AI Agent will tell you that you need to buy extra model for this. Same with performance analysis, same with the design using tool X, Y or Z.

This is pretty scary, as it will put our well-being, productivity in the hands of few corps. It will be event worst that Google Search monopoly we used to have (until AI chats broke this, replacing Google Monopoly with a few other vendors monopoly).

Can this be prevented? Surely. Hopefully we will have capable open models and consumer-level hardware will catch up. But I think this is the place where governments should step in, invest into alternative models which will be at least comparable with flagships.

Chinese models shows that this is doable, DeepSeek is worst than Chat GPT/Claude/Gemini, but not that much and is clearly better than Grok (which is a huge disappointment for me). I guess India would join this game (especially with nationalist like Modi as the leader).

Europe could join this game, the problem is it kills its capabilities with high energy prices and inability to come out with some reasonable, well financed solution. So the only thing EU was able to come up with is some set of regulations that are blocking fast AI development in Europe...

There is French Mistral, but it is French, it is under-financed, it is only-French, as France would not like to lose control over it.

Germany have totally different strategy, they invest into manufacturing oriented AI, what makes a lot of sense, but does not help with the dangers we are facing.

The rest of the Europe is just too poor to spend billions on AI.

There is still time to buckle up for Europe, but given the course of events, stupidity of Brussels elites who does not see the storm coming I am not optimistic.

Why bubbles happen? Because investors, out of greed, pour into corporations that burn their cash.

The internet was a bubble: you could make a web page and sell it for millions because next year it was going to be worth billions. And then internet grew up.

AI is technology that's still beginning to find its place to settle. It's far from mature and that's perfectly fine. We'll have reached a reasonable plateau once the technology and the related stack stops changing every month and instead develops incrementally and boringly over the span of few years. That's like internet in the 2008-2010, and many investors will have a collection of new burn marks by that time.

Not only financially there's an unsustainable push for AI by the zealots du jour who are more often than not managers rather than engineers. AI is championed most ruthlessly as a silver bullet revolution by people who least grasp the limitations of AI. It'll take some time to figure out the dreamed-up proceeds won't be there, and "then what?".

I predict that the real bottlenecks of development will re-emerge as soon as the limitations of AI will manifest out of the hype. They bottlenecks are human-based, in development processes and in human interactions. A large part of development is trying to understand what we want and what we need and you can't offload that to AI.

There is no substance to the article to tackle. Ed Zitron is a clown that makes seven million dollars a year writing unsubstantiated bullshit on the internet. He has been consistently wrong in every single one of his predictions and will continue predicting the sky is falling, because his content has zero educational value. It is purely a confirmation-bias inducing dopamine hit for the perpetually aggrieved.

There's an efficiency sweet spot where hardware that people have anyway gets a higher percentage of load.

MacBooks have a lot of memory and a lot of FLOPs. They mostly sit unused all day. Yes, the excess energy use will be higher than a GPU in a datacenter doing the same work, but you have to generate an absurd amount of tokens before the dollar-efficiency catches up with the MacBook.