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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#811

Post by [deleted] »

tacitusarc wrote: post #734
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#812

Post by niyikiza »

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Another factor to consider is that COVID is contagious but blood clots are not. The multiplicative (if not exponential) nature of COVID spread makes this a no brainer that the vaccine should be reinstated (and just monitored).

I suspect that what's happening is that these institutions don't think in consequentialist point of view. They are not comfortable with diverting the trolley even if the math checks out.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#813

Post by mujina93 »

TrevorJ wrote: post #773
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

>The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M) that we know of . I suspect the lack of understanding about what is happening, and what other knock-on effects there might be is what is behind this. If a wing falls off of one airplane in a million, we still stop and try to figure out what happened because as far as we know, wings are not supposed to fall off any airplane…

But airplaines are engineered by humans, we know everything about how they are supposed to work until the last bit of physics.

We don't have the same absolute understanding of mechanisms with vaccines. Therefore, I am not sure we can use this metaphore to suggest that it is the right choice in this terrible time to stop vaccinations, causing slowdowns to happen and scepticism to spread in the population that is bombarded by the press which creates an echo chamber repeating over and over superficial news.

I personally don't expect a vaccine, nor any medicine in general, to be supposed to have absolutely zero incidence of possible negative side effects.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#814

Post by yumraj »

newaccount7 wrote: post #798
tacitusarc wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

So I created a new account for this to avoid linking personal information... I had blood clots in my lungs last week a few days after getting the J&J vaccine. I'm an otherwise totally healthy man in my 30s, no preconditions. The hospital reported it to the vaccine reporting agency, which I assume is reviewing all this information. I'm not sure if they considered my case when making this decision. My clots were differ…

what were your symptoms that led you to go to the hospital to get checked for clots?

What is someone getting a vaccine as such is supposed to look for?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#815

Post by effie »

rebuilder wrote: post #398
myrandomcomment wrote: post #230

Okay so I want to make something very clear here. The rule is to put it very very simply, is you can ship any drug that is approved but you have to list the side effects. This drug was approved under an emergency order and this side effect was not listed. This will get paused long enough for the side effects to be updated and then used again. The arguments about “well the birth control pill has a higher risk” are usi…

It's really not clear at all that the incidence of this type of blood clots is actually higher in the vaccinated. So it seems early to call this a side-effect. I wish the health agencies were a bit more open about their thought processes. OTOH, the rate of incidence doesn't seem higher than baseline AFAIK, which seems absurd. It also seems absurd that the various health authorities around the world would all make suc…

> So it seems early to call this a side-effect.

Yes, causation is hard to show with certainty.

However, regulator have to follow rules, and those rules probably err on the side of caution. Similarly to "first, do no harm".

I agree that the matter of public trust is also relevant here. In some countries large part of the population already does not want to get vaccinated. So the vaccinator is naturally motivated to prevent any PR screw-ups even at the cost of slowing down.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#816

Post by mujina93 »

cyberlurker wrote: post #786
kaczordon wrote: post #770

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OTOH, if this being in the news causes fewer people to get vaccinated, pausing it may be a mistake that will cause more overall deaths This is the reason people lost trust in the medical community during COVID.

Yes, the fact that they are being this cautious is a good thing for public trust. We have other vaccines as well. I rather have this level of transparency then blindly tell people to get JJ and we will figure out edge cases later.

Is it that good? There are places where lots of people are refusing to get the vaccine if they hear it's Astra-Zeneca, because of all the overblown nightmarish news around it. I can tell you for example that in Italy there are examples of regions where 80% of people refuse.

I understand the need for being cautious and for transparency. Actually, I would like to have even more transparency and actual scientific data and numbers from the news. That would help the public understand better why certain decisions are made.

(Maybe my main problem is just with mainstream press, not much with stopping vaccinations per se. I'd just like to know more and be told by politicians: we are listening to scientists, these are the data, this is how numbers compare to the incidence of other side effects for well known medicines and to the numbers of daily deaths and long term problems caused by COVID, and the decisions are taken because X > Y).

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#817

Post by lupire »

autokad wrote: post #791
nawitus wrote: post #771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's odd, as headache is a common symptom for many vaccines (or pretty much any medicine).

a thunder clap headache is also a symptom of a stroke.

...which is a kind of blood clot.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#818

Post by lupire »

TrevorJ wrote: post #773
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

>The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M) that we know of . I suspect the lack of understanding about what is happening, and what other knock-on effects there might be is what is behind this. If a wing falls off of one airplane in a million, we still stop and try to figure out what happened because as far as we know, wings are not supposed to fall off any airplane…

Every day, 300 people in USA get a blood clot. It's not wanted, but it's expected.

https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/features/blood-clot-risk.html

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#819

Post by lupire »

autokad wrote: post #800
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

0.00009% over a 30 year period means you have about a 1% chance of being blown up by starting your car. that's about the odds of catching HIV while having unprotected sex with someone who is HIV positive (depends on a lot of factors though).

Error, mismatched units. The 30 year odds of HIV due to unprotected sex is far higher.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#820

Post by ttesttom »

MikeCapone wrote: post #749
tacitusarc wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

There's already been large scale phase 3 trials, and we've deal with vaccines for decades, they're not entirely novel and unknown each time.

The phase 3 trial for JnJ/Janseen had only ~44k participants whereas here we are talking on the order of ~1 per million (that are reported as of today)
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