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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#811

Post by dang »

ft250 wrote: post #775
amiga_500 wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Went to the gym 3 times a week, cycled 25k every weekday, ran on the weekends. Now I can only walk, after covid, which I got in early March. I'm hoping to try jogging again at some stage, after CT scans on my lungs, but I think it's a bit of a pipe dream. After 5 months the daily nausea has stopped. No prior conditions. Early 40s. edit: can't think of another site on the internet you'd get downvoted for the above, HN…

[flagged]

That's untrue, of course. But why don't you supply links so readers can make up their own minds? When people post linkless claims like this, usually they're omitting some important aspect of the story.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#812

Post by FabHK »

u801e wrote: post #687
csomar wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is doing way more testing than most of the populous countries in the EU.

What's the percentage of positive test results out of all test results in the US vs most of the populous countries in Europe?

Higher. US positive rate is 6.9%, Europe is mostly quite a bit lower (Austria 2.5%, Belgium 3%, France 2.4%, Germany 0.9%, Italy 1.9%, Scandinavia https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#813

Post by dillondoyle »

I'm curious to check my ethics. I'm in Colorado. Currently climbing gyms are open, limited capacity, with masks. I'm currently planning for winter. My gut says in 6-8 weeks with schools + flu season starting there's good chance of either shut down of gyms again or just too much risk for me.

So I've been looking for private commercial space. I already have a personal wall need to move it indoors.

My question is what others think of the ethics of expanding from just myself to trying to get 5-10 people onboard with a 501c7 social group to lower costs and build more walls in a private space. Only allow one person in at a time - mask-less (or closed loop groups for instance me and my climbing partner are in a 2 person closed loop).

I'm currently trying to look at the last order to see if that's legal.

but now with this thread I'm questioning the ethics and curious what others think. Besides the obvious unequal privilege that I can afford this luxury.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#814

Post by ayyyolo »

seizethecheese wrote: post #617
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to some vulnerable person (probably your parents or a school teacher) with a 1 in 10 chance of death. This is wrong and misleading. You're quoting the average fatality rate for "healthy" people, but the distribution doesn't look like that at all. Then, you cherrypick 10% out of now…

"Real data"

Kinda like how the rough %s are the same?

What argument were you trying to make again? oh right, the one that is silly af: not to worry about it.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#815

Post by bonestamp2 »

arxv33 wrote: post #623
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> the clusters in nursing homes and indoor parties also indicate there is some mechanisms in play when indoor

One know mechanic is the virus's half life when airborne. We know that the airborne virus can be killed/filtered when there is enough UV light and/or a fine enough particulate air filter in place. In other words, indoor safety can be improved with better filters. Without the proper filtration, HVAC circulation can help circulate the virus, which could be the problem in nursing homes and at parties.

Meanwhile, outdoor air is relatively safe when there is enough distancing as sunlight will take the virus's half life down to 90 seconds at 20% humidity and 70-75 degrees [1]. 20% humidity is pretty low, but the good news is that half life gets even shorter as humidity goes up. Sunlight doesn't even contain the best frequency of UV light to kill the virus, but it's intense enough that it still works fairly well.

1) https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-sunlight-coronavirus-...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#816

Post by FabHK »

rootusrootus wrote: post #702
divbzero wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe can be lax now precisely because it was strict early enough and long enough to bring prevalence down to a safer level.

I think that is a mistake. Exponential math doesn't fail to work just because you delay it for a while. Everyone started with just one case.

That is true. One cannot completely relax. The point is that Asia and Europe has by and large managed, after the big initial outbreaks, to keep R in check with moderate, yet consistent measures (social distancing, no large events, masks).

When people get careless, it flares up, but can (thanks to decent testing meanwhile) typically be suppressed again with regional lockdowns before it gets really bad.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#817

Post by jorblumesea »

helaoban wrote: post #636
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game. Go preach this nonsense to small business owners that have had their livelihoods taken from them and see how long you can keep your head above the parapet. > Support temporary benefits to your fellow citizens. What benefits? Support how? Prayers? Support that small business in your community with your wallet. > Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance…

There are people with actual skin in the games, you know, their lives. Your business goes under it sucks but you won't die.

Only in America would people legitimately make the argument that it's ok to expose people to risk because people someone is losing money.

Who are you to put a value on my loved ones lives? 1/100 chance, 1/1000 chance, why does any of that matter? Fuck your business, it won't bring my parents back. It won't replace scarred lung tissue in COVID survivors or heal neurological damage.

Preventable death and disability, especially using easy measures like mask wearing and lockdown, should always be preferred over monetary issues.

Modern American values are morally corrupt and disgusting.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#818

Post by FabHK »

djsumdog wrote: post #662
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong I don't think they were. There is a 2013 study that shows cloth masks would be ineffective at preventing spread of respiratory illnesses, and posts by UIC Health early on that said they weren't necessary (which they've added a notice to). I wrote about this here: https://battlepenguin.com/politics/secondary-effects/#masks-...…

> Masks have really torn everyone apart

Everyone?

In nearly all countries, people simply wear masks when appropriate. The common fight against the virus brings people together, if anything.

To watch the self-destruction of the USA about the "great mask debate" is somewhat baffling.

> There are plenty of nations and States within the US without mask mandates

You need to look at mask wearing, not mask mandates (believe it or not, there are people who wear masks voluntarily); and correct for a whole lot of factors, such as density (compare Hong Kong and Alaska). Then, from what I gather, evidence supports masks.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#819

Post by [deleted] »

literallycancer wrote: post #587
polote wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The head of the strategy of Sweden, keep repeating that he is not sure masks are working, how you can be so sure that he is wrong, and decides that's others who are not listening ? Of course it is clear that if someone has covid and wear a mask, the probability to transmit covid will decrease (I was actually encourage people to wear a mask 6 months ago), but will it stop ? no. people can still transmit it by touching…

Tegnell is a fucking idiot. Look at the numbers, look at how it spreads, look at the countries that were doing OK at first and why. That's Taiwan, South Korea, Iceland, Singapore. Look at what Sweden did (nothing). Look at Swedish GDP change compared to neighboring countries.

[deleted]

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#820

Post by screye »

cm2187 wrote: post #706
svnpenn wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

It's not that clear that a lockdown helps. NY closed the earliest in the US but was the hardest hit nevertheless. It has now mostly reopened and cases aren't going up. Chances are we may have reached herd immunity there. I have seen recently that serology tests in Italy have shown the same outcome for people who were locked down than essential workers who were not locked down (and mortality stats in the UK told a sim…

> It's not that clear that a lockdown helps

Thank you ! I am all for the lockdown. I am all for wearing masks. Contact tracing is great and d=should be done more rigorously. I am all for proven methods working well for a disease that is both more and less well-understood than we think.

However, amidst genuinely useful health policy, we also have a seriously large amount of security theater. As of this moment, any stance outside "covid is the next coming of the black death" is met with a lot of pushback.

The disease primarily kills and affects older people. We still haven't seen any age specific policy come out of any govt. Close down old age homes. Ensure social distancing at all costs. Let other things come back to normal slowly. It is near impossible for it to spread via surfaces.

WHO has claimed that truly asymptomatic patients (not pre-symptomatic, not making that distinction initially caused push back) patients rarely transmit, and another study found that about 80% of patients in the 10-30 range are asymptomatic.

From my POV, America failed with Covid due to the South, Republicans and many refusing to take basic covid precautions. Shouting at those who are already doing their bit, for not going above and beyond is not going make this any better. People need to stop with purity tests, and directing their misguided anger towards those who are already doing more than enough. This is knowing what we know from countries that have beaten covid.

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