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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#801

Post by RiverStone »

samrus wrote: post #661
RiverStone wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocrac…

Those people didnt lose faith in the US after it bombed a preschool? At one point you have to wonder if this is good versus evil or evil versus evil

I will respond to your comment honestly. I have literally talked about this topic with actual Iranians.

The Iranians I’ve spoken to feel that the ends will justify the means.

They believe that people will die either way, protesters are dying right now. So if they can destroy the regime, then it will be worth it.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#802

Post by RiverStone »

helo4362 wrote: post #769
RiverStone wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocrac…

Source please. How to get informed opinion on what the actual iran people feel. It seems from new media the support for khameni family has increased after the leader was killed.

My wife is Iranian, so I’m connected with a large Iranian expat community, and all my in-laws are in Tehran.

The best recommendation I can give you is to connect with your local Iranian community

I’m not sure where you live, but every major city has one. You will experience great food and great parties and great dancing.

Iranian expats love to dance because dancing and singing in public is illegal in Iran. So they do it as a big middle finger to the Islamic republic.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#803

Post by sph »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #320
Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

Rather than $2M per ship, it's €1.7M or 13.7M CNY per ship.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#804

Post by krembo »

Den_VR wrote: post #784
krembo wrote: post #778

It's interesting how the hackernews-biased views of the war outcomes don't align with how Iranians themselves see that. For instance you can translate from persian the following geopolitical view which will shed a totally different light on the situation to whoever depends solely on hn comments https://x.com/i/status/2041693098833518976

Posted from Maryland?

Too bad the internet inside Iran was shut down by the IRGC terrorists regime

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#805

Post by Bender »

albatross79 wrote: post #507
Bender wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights Among many other items this would never be accepted. This momentary cease fire is just regrouping time for everyone involved and that has always been the case for Iran.

There no feasible escalation path for the US. Trump has alienated allies and much of his anti war supporters. A forever war quagmire in a country 3x larger than Iraq is unlikely, as is carpet bombing. So what's left? A JCPOA style agreement with a Maga bumper sticker on it, with heavy concessions to Iran to prevent them from racing to a bomb, which is the best option from their pov at this point.

Carpet bombing would be a waste of munitions. Iran to your point is massive and surface level bombing would mostly take out civilians. The civilians have been through enough. Most of Irans military and religious leaders are in missile cities that are 500 meters+ under mountains of rock, the same places they are creating nuclear material. These bunkers are immune to bunker busters and nukes. That will require ground troops and likely a lot of them. How that plays out specifically I have not a clue. I can only hope that they share body-cam footage and that casualties are kept to a minimum. If there is one thing I can give Iran credit for that is building some amazing and very impressive bunkers using US dollars.

with heavy concessions to Iran to prevent them from racing to a bomb

This game has already been played out many times before. Obama unfroze 1.7 billion, Biden gave them upwards of 6 billion. All together the US has given them upwards of 60 billion to pinky promise they wont build nukes. Never pay a bully, ever. They used that extortion money to build bunkers, pay their proxy soldiers to attack Israel and all the gulf states and to work on their bunkers. There will be no more of that. Shame on anyone that falls for those shenanigans again.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#808

Post by walterlw »

briansm wrote: post #796
zacksiri wrote: post #768

I hope that one day humanity learns that in war there are no winners. We're all just brothers and sisters born on different corners of the planet. We share the same home. I hope that we stop attacking one another and find peace and work together as a race to overcome our challenges.

That will happen on the day there is enough to go around. Unfortunately I fear that time has long gone. As long as the population is growing and/or the (fossil) energy is falling there will never be enough to go around.

I doubt it very much that either Russian war on Ukraine or the US attacking Iran happened due do scarcity of resources. Old folks in power want their page in history books.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#809

Post by moezd »

Trump wanted tariffs on everyone to increase everyone's operations expenses so that he can somehow enact a protectionist policy. It was repeatedly shut down by the Supreme Court. Now, even with this ceasefire you will have the new Hurmuz tax long after the insurance premiums wind down, and everyone who's heavily dependent on ME oil have increased expenses. Mission accomplished, I guess? At what cost, though.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#810

Post by IshKebab »

sph wrote: post #799
anovikov wrote: post #786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

As long as the state of Israel is a project of ultra-nationalist hostile expansion, yes. Respect your neighbours or else.

I think the alternative he was alluding to was that Iran is the project of ultra-religious hostile expansion. Which of course they would do if they could. Pick your poison - nationalist fanaticism or religious fanaticism.

Obviously neither would be best but that isn't a realistic possibility. I think I'd probably rather Israel conquered the Middle East than Iran.

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