81–90 of 138 posts
I'm not so sure I understand the point of view that labor shortages will be such a bad thing for the economy. If you are a worker, "high labor costs" is a very GOOD thing. For decades we've seen the value of labor fall behind the value of capital, and a more constrained labor supply might help change this.
Can I just say that it is not a problem for Germany because they figured out they need to let immigrants in, unlike Japan. Germany has a very high number of immigrants, including (actually, mostly!) young adults who are eager to work. By all means, the country is more than safe in this regard, in stark contrast to Japan, which is trying to turn to robots for future workers (which is fine for the rest of the world, im…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The debt of Japan is so huge (to put it in relative terms, Greece's debt is nothing compared to it) that they would need half of the developed world to cater to it.
Japanese debt is mostly to its own population, while that of Greece is foreign owned. That's a huge difference.
Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...
Not to mention that in these highly-developed countries with solid education systems and modern career opportunities, the value-creating power of an individual is several times higher than that of an average individual in a developing country. The fertility rate among founders in Silicon Valley is probably even lower, but that group of people is creating an immense amount of value for society in return for not creati…
Can I just say that it is not a problem for Germany because they figured out they need to let immigrants in, unlike Japan. Germany has a very high number of immigrants, including (actually, mostly!) young adults who are eager to work. By all means, the country is more than safe in this regard, in stark contrast to Japan, which is trying to turn to robots for future workers (which is fine for the rest of the world, im…
Cause, I mean, sure its no problem for the landmass or the state. For the nation/ethnicity though, it means extinction.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are they worried about being killed by famine (after having eaten their own cats and dogs), war or pandemic soon? If not, then they are not "struggling to live", which in turn means there is no need to reproduce that much. From the biological perspective, excessive population growth can be dangerous to the species [1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink
Probably not but I can't see why "to be killed by famine" is a relevant point here (A lot of alive germans had experienced the fear to be killed by famine in their past, that's for sure, as many other people that was children in the wars and postwars). Today 7 millions of germans live with minijobs and for most of them is its only source of income. I don't really see those people reproducting like bunnies, but well..…
If poverty was causing reduced birth rate, we should have gone extinct long time ago. I suspect though that increased competition for non-essential resources and territory (like a new car or a house) might somehow turn off our reproductive instincts because in the past this was usually a prelude to self-destructive competition for essential goods.
I'm not encouraging or discouraging anything, I just don't see the problem. Everything seems to work according to the nature. The only thing that needs adjusting is the social security system which is based on the flawed assumption of infinite population growth.
As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…
For the female part of a couple stability is important, and owning your own house/apartment plays a big role there. I've heard that getting into the house ownership market in Germany is extremely hard, with high requirements set on your own savings to be granted a loan, meaning most people don't until they are well into their 30s and maybe even their 40s. To me that certainly also sound like a contributing factor. An…
The low birthrate is primarily driven by college-educated women having few or no children (over 30% of all German women who were born between 1964 and 1968 and had a college degree did not have any children). It has historically been difficult to be a working mother in Germany; it was both more challenging (school being out at lunchtime) and society frowned upon you being a working mother.
This has slowly been changing; reunification happened and East German women weren't having any of this nonsense; politicians realized that the net effect was that the fertility rate dropped; and the abortion debate and a subsequent judgement by the Constitutional Court forced legislation that made having children easier. As a result, it is now a whole lot easier to be a parent (single or married, male or female) than it used to be.
This did at least stabilize the fertility rate, which had been dropping before. While nominally, Germany's fertility rate is 1.4, this does not account for the fact that the great majority of German children are being born after their mothers reach the age of thirty; current estimates set the actual fertility rate -- i.e. the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime -- at 1.6. More importantly, this number did stabilize in the aughts and has actually been increasing since then for college-educated women.
As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…
Therefore there was very little support to take care of very young children. For well educated couples this leaves an extremely small window in which you can have children. Moreover, there are very few day cares that accept children after three months (which is pretty normal in The Netherlands and probably most other Western countries). This creates the perception of having to choose between a career and children (in…
Doesn't the baby need milk in that period? Sounds like opposite of how it should be.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Japanese debt is mostly to its own population, while that of Greece is foreign owned. That's a huge difference.
Not really. In the end Japanese will have to pay, in one way or another, and that will be either with huge taxation, or dramatic inflation. Or Default. No good options out there, really.
I'm not so sure I understand the point of view that labor shortages will be such a bad thing for the economy. If you are a worker, "high labor costs" is a very GOOD thing. For decades we've seen the value of labor fall behind the value of capital, and a more constrained labor supply might help change this.
Labor costs and salaries are declining at a staggering pace. Workers get squeezed between declining wages, asset price inflation (Germany has one of the lowest house ownership rates) and taxation. The the same time, hordes of young, male, aggressive and uneducated immigrants who believe that they have a superior religion, flood Germany. Run as long as you can.