I'm a Singaporean. I've worked in opposition politics. I'm going to be voting this year.
Here are a few thoughts:
- your understanding of the Lees in Singapore have no historical context. You cannot view his leadership in a vacuum. You cannot look at Singapore politics and say it needs a dash of 'Western liberalism & democracy' and proclaim Chee Soon Juan one of its administrators. LKY, and the Singapore of his time, was a product of the times. There is no other place like it.
- No other place like it: that at the point of independence, we could have become "either a Palestine or a Switzerland". He was prescient on that. Few other small states are sandwiched between two giants (India and China), few other small states are at the best spot of an important shipping route, and in that sense he — and Singapore — had a leg up
- The most successful opposition party in Singapore is the Worker's Party, a party which is nearly as old as the ruling party. They are just as organized, if not more, and they are gaining momentum and strength. Like Lee's party, they have no overwhelming 'ideology', it is about 'what works for Singapore'. Voters like that. Voters don't like SDP, and they don't like Chee. Singapore voters don't trust loose cannons, and I as someone who has been in the 'opposition' most of my life would rather vote for the PAP if it presented a better candidate than the opposition, which is usually the case.
- Odds are stacked against the opposition, that is true; but the odds are lowered now, Lee Hsien Loong is not his father and the media is not nearly as powerful now. I would say that other than the Worker's Party, every single opposition candidate and party is unelectable. God help us if they do. Personality cults and horrible politics. No ability to execute. Voters will not give them the benefit of the doubt; we do not see the 'ability to govern' in them, and that counts more than 'what party one is from'
- Throughout the land there is a profound sense of mourning. Even among the ones who have spent their lives on the fringes of Lee's Singapore. He was a lion, and Singapore will not be the same without him.
- It will not descend into chaos, it will not swing the popular vote for the opposition. My read is that the PAP will still be in majority power for then next two elections.
- In the meantime, the work that has to be done is about how we ensure that we are ready for a post-PAP future. The reality of post-LKY is upon us today, and that changes things. Rapid destruction of our institutions isn't the answer. The building of our capacity with our people, institutions and processes may be.
- In many ways, we are more ready than the world thinks for that future
- You'd think that well-educated well-travelled Singaporeans who have the world at their feet (can live and travel and work anywhere, pretty much) would immediately switch allegiances and vote in 'democratic figureheads'. We will not.
- That doesn't come from conservatism. It comes from a practical belief that these figureheads, like Chee, will be the end of Singapore as we know it — and that's not from believing the propaganda of the state. It comes from knowing that the Singapore model works, but needs tweaking; and that the situation you have described above isn't going to end well.
- After working on the ground for the opposition in the last elections, I believe Singapore voters are rational and no longer afraid.
- The odds are good, but the goods are odd. That's the Singaporean opposition right now.