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Can China build its own ASML?

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Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#81

Post by Markoff »

epolanski wrote: post #41
ilovecake1984 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their cars and phones are still second rate. They are, however, cheap enough to be good value.

Have had two Xiaomi phones in a row, I don't see the second rate. My in law has a BYD Seagull, fail to see how it lags compared to similarly priced cars. Chinese cars are incredibly popular in Europe, because they are better cars at the same price tag, even the more expensive ones. I think it's asinine to think their high end manufacturing is crap, keeps us non competitive, let alone ignoring most of our stuff or lar…

Chinese cars are exactly same story as Japanese and Korean cars, first they ignored them, then they laughed at them, then they won

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#82

Post by Chu4eeno »

Markoff wrote: post #81
epolanski wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have had two Xiaomi phones in a row, I don't see the second rate. My in law has a BYD Seagull, fail to see how it lags compared to similarly priced cars. Chinese cars are incredibly popular in Europe, because they are better cars at the same price tag, even the more expensive ones. I think it's asinine to think their high end manufacturing is crap, keeps us non competitive, let alone ignoring most of our stuff or lar…

Chinese cars are exactly same story as Japanese and Korean cars, first they ignored them, then they laughed at them, then they won

Chinese cars were sold at a loss until very recently, though, and now they are struggling. So it's a bit different than Japan and Korea.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#83

Post by Chu4eeno »

eloisant wrote: post #40
joe_mamba wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The answer is, of course, yes. No, not in this case. > I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Any country can make cars and phones now if they REALLY want to, they just don't because they wouldn't be competitive on the global market at performance and at scale. But not anyone can just make an EUV machine if they want to. Becoming a leader in commodity white goods like a p…

They have more than 1 billion people that are getting more and more educated, they have the capital and will to invest in it, they will get there eventually. The "moat" we're talking about with private companies is that it's very hard for competitors to get enough funding to compete, and private investors are unwilling to invest in a company that will compete with a big established player. That's completely different…

The problem is that their government doesn't let them go anywhere but into factories, no matter the education.

They were promised upwards mobility, but their leaders need factory workers, more than ever.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#84

Post by joe_mamba »

robocat wrote: post #79
joe_mamba wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but they had 20 years of European IP before that, all related other parts of the lithography machine (and not EUV) that made ASML the company it is. Was any of that 20 year old European DUV lithography machine IP superior to the IP from the other DUV champions, Canon and Nikon?

The fact that Japan hasn't built a competitive machine is more of an argument for the ability of ASML and it's suppliers.

20 years ago was a different story, there was no EUV yet, and Japan was leading DUV.

So it doesn't answer my question if ASML had superior DUV IP.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#85

Post by satvikpendem »

Markoff wrote: post #77
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has successfully stopped them from acquiring the machines. That's not the same as stopping them from acquiring the capability to make them. On the contrary.

there is reason why they call trump in China Chuan Jianguo" (川建国) aka "Trump the Nation Builder", though not sure Americans would like to know which nation he is building and which one he destroys

Trump has done more for Chinese sovereignty and autonomy than any president in recent memory. No wonder he's making the world great again.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#86

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Markoff wrote: post #77
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has successfully stopped them from acquiring the machines. That's not the same as stopping them from acquiring the capability to make them. On the contrary.

there is reason why they call trump in China Chuan Jianguo" (川建国) aka "Trump the Nation Builder", though not sure Americans would like to know which nation he is building and which one he destroys

Before I left China in 2016, I had lots of chats with Chinese coworkers who liked Trump a lot more than I did. I guess Trump just comes across as a strong leader in China even if he is way more crude than a typical Chinese leader who acts strong but speaks diplomatically.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#87

Post by ieatcandlewax »

chvid wrote: post #51

The latest from Huawei (which is probably the company to watch here) is an idea called "logic folding" which will squeeze more juice out of DUVL by 3D-stacking logic chips. So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL. Products are due i…

I saw this clickbait article once about how china was making laser propelled submarines, and the 3D stacking logic chips kind of sounds about as outlandish.

Looking into it, they are "folding" a logic chip to have shorter paths with their SRAMs, which is the main application of 3D integration these days, chucking memory (low-power) above high power logic die.

stacking logic chips is hard because they have to dissipate a lot of power, and stacking them multiplies your power density (which is already very high for the logic die, generally) by the number dies you stack~effectively. Most of the progress on these sorts of things have just been stacking layer on layer of memory on a single logic die.

It looks like they are folding other components other than memory onto the logic die which I haven't seen before, but this isn't cold fusion and even intel has thrusts doing this type of 3D integration.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#88

Post by NordStreamYacht »

dangero wrote: post #53
NordStreamYacht wrote: post #16

Inevitable. Huawei already had 7nm a couple of years ago.

They used ASML machines to make that…

By repurposing an older machine which wasn't designed for that node.

More than what Intel could do with all their money and access.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#89

Post by Markoff »

Chu4eeno wrote: post #82
Markoff wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese cars are exactly same story as Japanese and Korean cars, first they ignored them, then they laughed at them, then they won

Chinese cars were sold at a loss until very recently, though, and now they are struggling. So it's a bit different than Japan and Korea.

I would need some source that Chinese cars are sold at a loss outside China, because I seriously doubt it.

It's like those people thinking Aliexpress/Temu products are subsidized by Chinese gov, not realizing that Ali/Temu is extremely expensive and you can buy products there for like 1/2 - 1/10th of their price in Chinese online shops (especially Pinduoduo), people claiming China is subsidizing this and that don't realize how cheap is to produce products. Been in China last summer, bought 4 big suitcases full of things mostly from Pinduoduo.

Re: Can China build its own ASML?

#90

Post by thewileyone »

chvid wrote: post #51

The latest from Huawei (which is probably the company to watch here) is an idea called "logic folding" which will squeeze more juice out of DUVL by 3D-stacking logic chips. So far they have announced road maps and benchmarks for their upcoming products using this. A new Kirin-series phone/laptop chip and an Ascend AI accelerator - stated performance comparable to leading US products made with EUVL. Products are due i…

R&D is difficult and expensive which makes this "logic folding" more impressive. It might not have been a new idea but Huawei, against all the demonization against it over the last 10 years, is commercializing it and that's a huge achievement.

R&D is difficult and expensive which is why the US and Europe gives up on many cutting edge technologies and relies on the tried and true and discounting opportunities. This will be the end of their dominance.

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