China IS building it's own chip foundrys and lithographic machines that ARE producing chips that ARE closing the gap towards parity with the best western (ASML) companys.
The question is can they do that, this year, or next?
Can China build its own ASML?
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Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#12The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.
The comparison with cars and cellphones falls short for ASML machines. The former categories involved western companies transferring IP to Chinese counterparts.
So far, the Chinese have succeeded in stealing IP from ASML, but this is complexity in its own category. Also, the whole supply chain is part of the solution. That is a lot to copy.
But I agree that, given enough time, China should be able to. But Volvo en Tesla handing over IP themselves, and phone makers letting China produce and assemble phones (maybe not as extensive these days anymore) is something different.
EDIT: I mentioned Saab when I meant Volvo. Not sure if people downvoted based on that, I have no info on Saab so consider that as a mistake.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#13China IS building it's own chip foundrys and lithographic machines that ARE producing chips that ARE closing the gap towards parity with the best western (ASML) companys. The question is can they do that, this year, or next?
I thought the time frame of 10 years is the most recent forecast.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is cutting edge even necessary? If you could build the last two nodes 10x as cheaply that would be way more valuable.
If you have stolen IP designed for cutting edge processes you need about the same tech to produce said IP. Producing 10x of 10-years old GPUs is not exactly useful for modern AI codebases for instance.
Constant blaming and framing others of stealing. State support, unfair practices etc is not gonna help you become successful. China is now part of the game. You better work with them.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is cutting edge even necessary? If you could build the last two nodes 10x as cheaply that would be way more valuable.
If you have stolen IP designed for cutting edge processes you need about the same tech to produce said IP. Producing 10x of 10-years old GPUs is not exactly useful for modern AI codebases for instance.
Despite rumours to the contrary the world does need things that aren't useful for modern AI codebases still, I'd really appreciate it right now if China could get some fabs going that just manufactured RAM, storage, and maybe a selection of chips that the big ones have given up on because its more profitable to endlessly churn out GPUs and NPUs.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#16Inevitable. Huawei already had 7nm a couple of years ago.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#17I don’t see why not. China can move a mountain with a billion spoons if they want to.
China’s willpower and centralized deployment of that willpower is legendary.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#18The answer is, of course, yes. What is there to stop them? Sure, it's difficult -- but where there's a will, and where the resources of China are involved, there is most assuredly a way. I remember when their cars were a joke, and when their cellphones were cheap trash. Now I don't think I'd buy a non-Chinese new car or cellphone, lol.
We'll soon be reading science textbooks in Chinese.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#19Yes and that will be great. More competition = more choice = less political risk = great.
Protectionism policies are blocking low prices (what about tariffs ? what about monopolies ?) and are benefiting only the ones holding the knowledge and factories at the detriment of the rest of humanity.
Can't wait for ASML / TSMC / Zeiss equivalents so we can have access to memory sticks and GPUs / AI accelerators to run Qwen Super-Large distilled on Claude Zulu model, GTA VIII or whatever will come at that time.
Re: Can China build its own ASML?
#20[dead]