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Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

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Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#81

Post by adastra22 »

throwaway_dang wrote: post #76
adastra22 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an informed statement. The Russian military had ALWAYS operated on grift and cronyism, all the way back to the napoleonic wars. When shit hits the fan, as in Crimea, WW1, WW2, and Ukraine, it turns out all those paper capabilities don’t exist. Even in the height of the Cold War, ICBM silos in Russia were often flooded and inoperable. Nuclear weapons are extremely sensitive and maintenance heavy devices. They ha…

Russia has its own satellite network, its own rockets, the most advance missiles in the world (and demonstrated usage), has continually bombed Kiev and other parts of Ukraine .. but sure, let's listen to you spout your detached-from-reality comments about nuclear war. Contrast this with many "advanced" nations such as UK, EU, Australia etc. that can't even get a rocket into space. There was a period recently where th…

Civilian rockets and military/strategic rockets are not even remotely similar. Totally different technology driven by vastly different needs. Russia hasn’t had a technological edge in military rocketry since the 1950’s.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#82

Post by oezi »

chvid wrote: post #70
askonomm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a joke, right? Diplomacy is something Russians completely disregard, lie about, and only agree to do when they are the only one benefiting, and even then only until they decide to break whatever agreements were made, because they've done so every single time so far. How do you have any diplomacy with someone like that? You can't.

Right now the US under Trump is leading the diplomatic efforts toward Russia. I think Europe and the Ukraine would have been better served with European leaders doing this.

Trump is just rambling. His 24 hours to end the war was an election slogan.

Putin only understands the language of power. European countries don't want Ukraine to lose but can't commit themselves to the billions it would cost to win.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#83

Post by adastra22 »

MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #61
adastra22 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very likely that there is no working nuclear arsenal.

It's very likely that some of it doesn't work. Maybe even a lot. But I would not care to test how much in a war!

So you will do anything, trade away everything, and capitulate at the slighted provocation to avoid the faintest possibility of war?

If not, where do you draw the line?

Because this isn’t the first time this has been analyzed, and the math is clear: the only winning strategy with terrorists not negotiate under any circumstances. You call their bluff, and you make known that you will always call their bluff in the future, and never back down. Do anything else and the terrorist can manipulate you into anything they want.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#84

Post by burnt-resistor »

newsclues wrote: post #4

No one listened, no one prepared. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim... It’s not like there was any warning signs… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 Bullies exploit weaknesses. Time to grow a pair.

Worth watching: You won't believe what Estonia just built to stop Russia https://youtu.be/DMRQW18COv4

The Baltics, Poland, and northern European countries don't have any illusions that NATO is already in a de facto state of asymmetric war with Russia already: hacking, sabotage, and election meddling of all sorts. The surface of concerns extend beyond that to Ukraine-like hot war scenarios especially for neighboring countries like Finland and the Baltics.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#85

Post by 1718627440 »

fastball wrote: post #37
CamelCaseName wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they can't. Europe is struggling with soaring energy costs and a lack of alternatives. Whether it's red tape or unfortunate geography, Europe cannot afford to turn off the Russian gas tap. A benevolent US would see this and find ways to bridge the gap for Europe and lower its energy costs, further choking Russia. A less benevolent US would see this and encourage it to continue, weakening both parties and sowin…

Feels kinda like you're removing Europe's agency here. "Red tape" is just another way of saying "terrible policy decisions for decades". If they dug themselves into a hole before, what's to stop them from doing it again when after you help them fill in the hole a little bit?

Western and Central Europe has been dependent of Eastern Europe for centuries. This doesn't change just when a dictator owns these lands.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#86

Post by mopsi »

throwaway_dang wrote: post #77
saubeidl wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France has a nuclear arsenal as well, making Moscow's kind of useless unless they want to provoke retaliation.

France has about 290 nuclear missiles in its arsenal compared to Russia's ~5500. This is an order of magnitude of difference. Could you please come back to reality?

Only two are needed to end Russia as it exists today, that's the reality of nuclear threats.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#87

Post by steanne »

JV00 wrote: post #54
altcognito wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what kind of "lowering" you are referring to, but the US is selling more gas than ever to the EU: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exports-surge...

At three times the price it used to pay Russia

at least some of that is gonna be shipping.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#88

Post by whiplash451 »

fastball wrote: post #37
CamelCaseName wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they can't. Europe is struggling with soaring energy costs and a lack of alternatives. Whether it's red tape or unfortunate geography, Europe cannot afford to turn off the Russian gas tap. A benevolent US would see this and find ways to bridge the gap for Europe and lower its energy costs, further choking Russia. A less benevolent US would see this and encourage it to continue, weakening both parties and sowin…

Feels kinda like you're removing Europe's agency here. "Red tape" is just another way of saying "terrible policy decisions for decades". If they dug themselves into a hole before, what's to stop them from doing it again when after you help them fill in the hole a little bit?

Because it takes decades to stop digging a hole you've taken decades to dig.

It's not like we can make dozens of nuclear power plants appear out of thin air.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#89

Post by [deleted] »

mafribe wrote: post #59
slaw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is mostly Germany. Once Germany stops buying oil from Russia other countries will be forced to stop too.

Could you give some evidence for this claim? Here is some counterevidence: [1] says that the top buyers of Russian energy include: • Hungary: 416 million euros ($488m) • Slovakia: 275 million euros ($323m) • France: 157 million euros ($184m) • Netherlands: 65 million euros ($76m) • Belgium: 64 million euros ($75m) [2] suggests that China and India are the main buyers. I don't how reliable those sources are. There is…

[deleted]

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#90

Post by 1718627440 »

fraboniface wrote: post #11

How do you (especially Europeans) understand this move from Russia? Can it really sustain a war against us? Does it want to break NATO by proving the US won't move?

> Can it really sustain a war against us?

It's like with AI, that question doesn't really matter. It only matters if their leader wants to try.

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