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Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

middlelayer.substack.com

81–90 of 125 posts

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#82

I can’t read things written in pure hyperbole like this. “Netflix isn’t a real company, they are nothing more than shills for camera-workers who film all of the content upstream.” Such a lame take. I’d be more interested if someone actually took a minute to think about the competitive landscape more seriously than this.

Hasn't the proliferation of streaming services shown that the content is the "drug"? To remain competitive, they had to start producing themselves.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#83
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and ads Ha this is so true. All the major LLMs have a surprisingly ad free experience right now. Likely because they’re all aggressively competing for customers. But as soon as one of them realises the money that can be made from ads and how that will pay for daily operation costs after the investors give up investing, then the game is up

They're not ad-free. Ads are integrated into the content of the responses. For example, ChatGPT biases towards itself as a provider of services even when asking it not to. This behavior is easy to see and probably will be replicated out for paying clients.

Yes for sure companies are already paying for having their products added to the training set of popular LLMs.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#84
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn‘t your main point, but the iPhone absolutely was the biggest revolution since the Internet. The world before it is wholly different to the world after it. AI looks to have a similar impact, but just like the iPhone it‘ll be a few years before everyone realizes the world has changed.

The iPhone opened up a whole new world of opportunities which were very clear from the start. No one, except Steve Ballmer, would describe it as a potential fad or question how good it can actually get before Apple goes bankrupt from all the investment into this new tech. I like this new stuff we get now, but the iPhone felt like a clear win with no downsides of a potential societal collapse.

I was there and it was a very common view, though perhaps not a majority view, that the iPhone was a flash in the pan. There were lots of people committed to the idea that only physical keyboards could work for mobile. Touch interfaces were viewed highly skeptically. And it wasn't just the Microsoft or Palm people saying it, it was large chunks of their customers. The initial goal of the iPhone was 1%, yes, 1% share of the phone market! And many thought that was impossible for Apple and their strange new device.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#85

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

This isn‘t your main point, but the iPhone absolutely was the biggest revolution since the Internet. The world before it is wholly different to the world after it. AI looks to have a similar impact, but just like the iPhone it‘ll be a few years before everyone realizes the world has changed.

There were mobile internet, touchscreen, “large” screen, downloadable mobile apps before iPhone. I could listen to music and watch movies on my phone before iPhone. I’m continuously online since 2001. AFAIK it had not a single major feature which didn’t exist before, except its design. It really had a terrific design for its time.

It was a step forward, but it was incremental. Internet was also incremental. In every sense. Just because the general populace didn’t hear about it until then, didn’t mean that it was that “revolutionary”. Yes, they crossed a line which made them useful, something what people want. Sometimes mainly because of marketing. But still incremental.

This whole modern neural network saga started around 2011. Every step was incremental since then. Just because most people didn’t hear about these just in 2022, doesn’t mean that large LLMs were suddenly here from nothing. They still need to improve for example to not make the code quality plummets immediately when programmers start to use it. It was, and will be an incremental process.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#86
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not ad-free. Ads are integrated into the content of the responses. For example, ChatGPT biases towards itself as a provider of services even when asking it not to. This behavior is easy to see and probably will be replicated out for paying clients.

Yes for sure companies are already paying for having their products added to the training set of popular LLMs.

Source?

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#87
post #3

I do a ridiculous amount of dumb shit with cursor without paying extra for it and I can't be the only one. There is just no way they will ever make a profit with their current all-you-can-eat model. Like there have been times I have just copy and pasted code into a cursor window for the AI to add when I could have just pasted it myself just because it makes the context easier to deal with. However, they will eventual…

> However, they will eventually get purchased by an AI company because the _product_ is great. 'Great' is in the eye of the beholder. For me, Cursor was one of the least-effective solutions of the many options (from Cursor and other AIDEs, to repo-centric web-based options like Jules, to CLI-based options like Claude Code) I evaluated a few months ago.

Did you keep a list of how each solution ranked? I'd be curious to see it (genuinely).

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#88
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone opened up a whole new world of opportunities which were very clear from the start. No one, except Steve Ballmer, would describe it as a potential fad or question how good it can actually get before Apple goes bankrupt from all the investment into this new tech. I like this new stuff we get now, but the iPhone felt like a clear win with no downsides of a potential societal collapse.

I was there and it was a very common view, though perhaps not a majority view, that the iPhone was a flash in the pan. There were lots of people committed to the idea that only physical keyboards could work for mobile. Touch interfaces were viewed highly skeptically. And it wasn't just the Microsoft or Palm people saying it, it was large chunks of their customers. The initial goal of the iPhone was 1%, yes, 1% share…

Where are we now? Around the 3s era?

By then, no one was saying that anymore.

The AI scepticism is still going strong.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#89

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster. Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

one of the big reasons I'm rooting for AI is it's a valid alternative to search engines and they've baked a paid model into the revenue stream from the very beginning. I'm more than happy to pay a premium for the ad free version

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#90

Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point. I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight three years away. Even when the iphon…

Just to echo another comment, I remember seeing the iPhone for the first time (2 maybe?). It was amazing. Mind blowingly good. It was revolutionary in every sense of the word. I'd heard the hype but if anything it undersold the reality. You saw this thing and knew the future had changed. It's very easy to forget Android just shamelessly ripped it off wholesale. The early version of Android looked nothing like the com…

I half-suspect the Rabbit M1 and the Humane AI Pin were onto something that could've been the "iPhone of AI", but because they botched it so completely, no one will want to invest (time, money, effort, resources) into exploring that path for several years.
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